Weekly Report Nov 22/09

Hammersmith Marketing Ltd
--------------------------
WEEKLY FEED GRAINS AND PROTEIN MEAL REPORT
--------------------------
November 22, 2009

France: Office: 33.9.7044.4881 Res: 33.9.5413.4934
UK Fax: 44.20.7681.1577 Phone: 44.131.208.0508
UK Mobile: 44.7762.740.270
USA Phone: 1.646.502.8623 Fax: 1.212.504.8033
Argentina Fax: 54.11.4032.0069
Head Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944,
Nassau Bahamas.
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
SKYPE: bacon39a

A GAFTA Member Corporation

SECTION 1 -- FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
----------------------------------------

USA corn prices moved a little higher overall this week but Friday was a
down day for corn prices as the harvest was chugging along and available
corn supplies are building rapidly --- exactly what happens at every
harvest. The harvest weather for the weekend looked quite good, so farmers
should be out in the fields trying to catch up on the harvest. Experts are
saying that there is still some doubt about the effect on the yield due to
the very late harvest and because of this most experts are not calling for
lower corn prices.

Soybean and soymeal prices were up again this week as there seemed to be a
great deal of interest in export sales and the expectations that the demand
from China for soybeans could be much higher than past forecasts had stated.
At present the only source for soybeans is the USA with nothing available
from South America before 3 months or so into 2010 --- the USA soybean
market can easily move higher when it is the only supply. It looks like
many of the market experts are quite bullish on USA soybean/soymeal prices
for the next few weeks --- once Brazil beans are available it is another
story but for now no one seems to be forecasting a sudden drop in prices.

FOB port or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

Corn FOB NOLA USA-------------------------USD 185/187 m/t
Corn FOB Argentina port--------------------USD 173/176 m/t
Corn FOB Brazil port--------------------------USD 185/188 m/t
Sorghum FOB NOLA USA-------------------USD 192/196 m/t

Soymeal 48 pro, FOB NOLA----------------USD 412 Dec, 410Jan, 396 Feb
Soymeal 44 pro, FOB NOLA----------------USD 401 Dec, 399 Jan, 385 Feb
Soymeal Argentina - Rotterdam------------USD 434/437 m/t
Soymeal FOB Argentina----------------------USD 394/397 m/t Nov/Dec/Jan
Soymeal 48 Brazil - Rotterdam-------------USD 444/447 m/t
Soymeal FOB Brazil----------------------------USD 393/400 m/t Nov/Dec
Soymeal 48 Indian FOB-----------------------USD 439/444

Bulk vessel shipments - minimum 5000 m/t
------------------------------------
Corn Gluten Feed USA FOB NOLA-------USD 138/143 m/t - Oct to Dec
Corn Gluten Meal USA FOB NOLA------- USD 665/670 m/t - Oct to Dec
DDGS 36 profat USA FOB NOLA.---------USD 166/170 m/t - Nov to Dec

Container shipments - minimum 200 m/t
-------------------------------------
Corn gluten meal Indian 60 pro----------USD 740/760 m/t CNF Egypt/Africa
Corn gluten meal China 60 pro------------USD 720/730 m/t CNF Egypt/Africa

The following indications are at producer's factory - ex-works in bulk
-------------------------------------------
Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 pro---------USD 385/400 m/t
Feather meal 80 protein----------------------USD 495/510 m/t
Poultry meal 57 pro, East Coast-----------USD 420/440 m/t

---------------------------------------------------

We have seen quite an increase in meat and bone meal prices in Argentina
this week. Producers seem to be very well sold for Nov/Dec and with all the
holidays in December there are limited production and shipment days. We
find that producers are screaming for the letter of credit on booked
business because there are only a limited number of working days in December
and a severe shortage of available container shipping positions. Far East
business for meat and bone meal has been very good and South American meat
and bone meal continues to sell at a good discount to American and
Australian. The demand keeps the producers happy but makes the supply very
tight.

We have had quite a bit of interest in feathermeal this week both from Egypt
and the Far East. However, it is not easy to find supplies as many
exporters are sold out through January. Feathermeal prices in the USA have
actually dropped a little in the past week but that has not made export
supplies any easier to find. If USA domestic prices continue to drop then
there may be more feathermeal available for export business as long as
export price remains high compared to domestic USA prices.

There has also been quite a bit of interest in South American feathermeal
but the specifications that I have seen from some sources make one wonder
exactly what the product actually is --- some does not look at all like
feathermeal.

USA corn gluten prices seem to have slipped a little but this may only be a
short term thing as there does not seem to be any good reason at present for
it to move lower ---- with fishmeal prices at sky-high levels, the export
demand for corn gluten meal is very strong and no real weakness in prices is
expected.

DDGS prices for Nov/Dec are quite strong due to near term demand to replace
corn in the USA market but experts feel that the DDGS price will slip lower
once we get into January 2010.

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES .. PERUVIAN

------------------------------------------

Reported catch in Peru is quite a bit higher in the last few days but this
is more as a result of an increase in the number of vessels fishing rather
than any chance in the fish stocks. We now see the daily catch levels up at
the 50/60,000 m/t per day, which is about where it is expected to stay until
the majority of the larger quotas are filled.

It has also been reported that the selling price for any raw fish available
in the market has jumped to close to USD 300 m/t which will, once again,
make it difficult for smaller facilities to produce fishmeal at a profit.

As you can see by the prices listed below, the market price of fishmeal
continues to move higher and there does not seem to be any weakness at all
in any prices. The very high level of pre-booked sales has certainly put a
floor on prices and any demand in the market just pushes prices higher.

Fishoil prices have also moved up quite strongly, as the fishoil yield in
the catch so far has been much below what was expected and if it does not
improve the season yield of fishoil will be quite low compared to previous
fishing seasons.

So, as to prices - just not seeing any weakness at all in South American
prices but am seeing a great deal of resistance from buyers to book fishmeal
at levels that are in excess of USD 1400 m/t on a CNF basis. If prices
stay at the current level there should certainly be a drop in demand from
users who have other alternatives.

--------------------------------------

Peru .. indication fishmeal prices.
-----------------------------------
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE FOB CONTAINER AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

Specifications----------------------FOB Peru $

FAQ basis 65 protein----------------1350/1360 m/t
FAQ 65 protein gtee----------------- 1350/1360 m/t
FAQ 66 protein gtee----------------- 1360/1370 m/t
FAQ 67 protein gtee-----------------1370/1380 m/t

65/66 pro standard steam---------1360/1370 m/t
67 pro standard steam-------------1370/1380 m/t
67 pro 150 TVN----------------------1410/1420 m/t
67 pro 120 TVN-----------------------1420/1430 m/t
67 pro 1000 hist, 120 TVN--------1430/1440 m/t
67 pro 500 hist, 120 TVN----------1450/1460 m/t

Fish oil .. crude bulk---------------- 750/800 m/t
Fish oil - crude flexitank-----------800/850 m/t
Fish oil - crude drums--------------850/900 m/t
Fish oil - Omega 3 gtee ----------1200/1230 m/t

Very best regards

Wayne Bacon

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be
reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing
contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation
of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without
notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As
such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or
published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers,
directors, employees or affiliates

Copyright © 2009 Wayne S. Bacon

Fishmeal study news story

HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------
France Phone:....33.9.7044.4881
UK Phone:.....44.131.208.0508......Fax:....44.20.7681.1577
UK Mobile:....44.7762.740270
USA:...Phone:..1.646.502.8623......Fax:....1.212.504.8033
EGYPT: Fax:...20.2.3536.5841..Argentina:....Fax:.54.11.4032.0069
SKYPE:........bacon39A........WWW:.hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Email:..tradegroup@hammersmith.biz OR wbacon@hammersmith.biz
.......................................................
Corporate office: Trident Serv., Kings Court, Bay St., PO Box N-3944,
Nassau, Bahamas.

A GAFTA member corporation

I SAW THIS ON THE INTERNET TODAY -- SEEMS RATHER BIASED. I WILL TRY TO FIND
A COPY OF THE ENTIRE REPORT.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Feed fish to people, not pigs: UBC study

------------------------------------------

By Staff

A new study suggests a novel approach to conserving the world's fish stocks:
stop feeding fish to farm animals.

Thirty-six per cent (30 million tons) of the world's total annual fish catch
is currently ground into fishmeal and oil to feed farmed pigs, chickens and
fish. Pigs and chickens alone consume six times as much seafood as U.S.
consumers do and twice as much as Japanese consumers, according to the
study's authors.

"Ultimately, these farm animals have a greater impact on our seafood
supplies than the most successful seafood certification program," said lead
author Jennifer Jacquet, a post-doctoral fellow at the University of British
Columbia's Fisheries Centre.

The industry should work toward eliminating the use of fish in livestock
production, especially since fish isn't a natural part of farm animals'
diet, said co-author Daniel Pauley, a UBC fisheries researcher.

"When is the last time you saw a chicken fishing?" he asked.

Pauly called it ironic that, while fishmeal is being fed to animals, 25 per
cent of infants in Peru, which produces half of the world's fishmeal using
anchovies, are malnourished.

The study titled "Conserving Wild Fish in a Sea of Market-Based Efforts"
appeared online this week in Oryx: The International Journal of
Conservation. Its authors include nine of the world's leading fisheries and
conservation researchers, including four from UBC.

The article reviewed the effectiveness of past conservation campaigns and
proposed new strategies for quicker and bigger changes.

The authors say finding alternative feed sources for farm animals will
significant reduce pressure on the world's dwindling fisheries while
contributing to climate change.

They also say sustainable seafood campaigns focus on consumers but ignore
large-scale market impacts, such as farming demand for fishmeal. As a
result, such campaigns fail to reach their goals.

Jacquet said publicity programs promoting sustainable seafood use should
target large supermarket chains instead of just trying to raise consumer
awareness. It's estimated over 60 per cent of seafood in Canada and 50 per
cent in the U.S. is sold through supermarkets.

© 2009 Business Information Group.

Weekly Report -- Nov 16, 2009

Hammersmith Marketing Ltd
------------------------------
WEEKLY FEED GRAINS AND PROTEIN MEAL REPORT November 16, 2009
(a Bahamas Corporation)

France: Office: 33.9.7044.4881 Res: 33.9.5413.4934
UK Fax: 44.20.7681.1577 Phone: 44.131.208.0508 Mobile:
44.7762.740.270
USA Phone: 1.646.502.8623 Fax: 1.212.504.8033 Argentina Fax:
54.11.4032.0069
Head Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944,
Nassau Bahamas.
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
SKYPE: bacon39a

A GAFTA Member Corporation

SECTION 1 -- FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
-------------------------------------------------------
Corn prices this week moved higher on slightly reduced crop, mycotoxin
risks and stories of lower crop in China. All these factors combined to
push prices higher on the week, although there were some pretty frantic ups
and downs during the daily trading and traders were not too sure where the
market would end up. Seems like up was where it was going after all.

Soybeans were lower on Friday but still finished higher on the week. It was
said that some of the increase on soybeans and soymeal during the week was
due to the reported problems with DDGS quality. However by the time we got
to the end of the week it was clear that the DDGS stories had been
exaggerated a great deal and soybeans of soymeal had a soft Friday. We
also had much better weather reports for Brazil and Argentina which caused
markets to show some weakness.

It was reported that the soybean harvest is 89 to 93 percent completed while
corn is still quite low at 55 to 59 percent.

Prices will watch the corn harvest while the situation in South America will
become more important as weeks pass.

FOB port or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

Corn FOB NOLA USA-------------------------USD 187/189 m/t
Corn FOB Argentina port--------------------USD 175/177 m/t
Corn FOB Brazil port------------------------ --USD 183/185 m/t
Sorghum FOB NOLA USA-------------------USD 185/191 m/t

Soymeal 48 pro, FOB NOLA----------------USD 397 Dec, 384Jan, 374 Feb
Soymeal 44 pro, FOB NOLA----------------USD 386 Dec, 373 Jan, 363 Feb
Soymeal Argentina - Rotterdam------------USD 420/423 m/t
Soymeal FOB Argentina----------------------USD 381/383 m/t Nov/Dec/Jan
Soymeal 48 Brazil - Rotterdam-------------USD 433/436 m/t
Soymeal FOB Brazil----------------------------USD 392/394 m/t Nov/Dec
Soymeal 48 Indian FOB-----------------------USD 433/435

Bulk vessel shipments - minimum 5000 m/t
------------------------------------
Corn Gluten Feed USA FOB NOLA-------USD 135/140 m/t - Oct to Dec
Corn Gluten Meal USA FOB NOLA------- USD 685/690 m/t - Oct to Dec
DDGS 36 profat USA FOB NOLA.---------USD 164/167 m/t - Nov to Dec

Container shipments - minimum 200 m/t
-------------------------------------
Corn gluten meal Indian 60 pro----------USD 740/760 m/t CNF Egypt/Africa
Corn gluten meal China 60 pro------------USD 720/730 m/t CNF Egypt/Africa

The following indications are at producer's factory - ex-works in bulk
-------------------------------------------
Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 pro---------USD 375/390 m/t
Feather meal 80 protein----------------------USD 510/530 m/t
Poultry meal 57 pro, East Coast-----------USD 420/440 m/t

---------------------------------------------------

USA meat and bone meal prices continued to move higher again this week this
is quite contrary to what Far East buyers are trying to convince me is
happening in the market. Seems that the buyers are expecting lower prices
while prices are moving a little higher each week.

We see the same situation in South America, where prices were low due to a
short term overstock of supply but that has all been sold and producers are
looking for higher prices from Argentina and Uruguay. Of course the buyers
are still hoping for the low levels of a couple of weeks ago - but those are
gone for now.

I expect that meat and bone meal buyers are going to be paying higher prices
over the next few weeks as demand has caught up to supply and price weakness
seems to have evaporated.

With the corn based items: DDGS, corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal ---
prices have been quite steady this week. Some sellers are asking for higher
prices but in general prices seem to be about the same as they were last
week. The situation in Turkey that has affected the imports of DDGS and
CGF is still not clearly understood so there may be a drop in the near term
export demand for these two items - at least to Turkey, but that has been a
very major market for these items.

So as to prices --- seems steady for now but will probably all depend on
what happens to corn prices in coming weeks and the price replacement items
like soymeal.

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES .. PERUVIAN

------------------------------------------

Fishing in Peru is progressing but probably not quite as well as most had
expected. The catch for the first 12 days was just over 269,000 m/t of
anchovy but the last couple of days have seen an increase in the daily catch
levels. It is also reported that the oil yield has also improved from the
initial low yields that were seen.

Export orders are still very small but, as in previous weeks. Much of this
is due to the fact that the producers are not offering much for sale at
present --- they have very full order books and want to complete as much of
the existing business before assessing their production and booking new
business. From the customer side, we still see buyers trying to buy at
levels below the current market but with little hope as prices are still
firm and there is not much available.

At present there is no weakness at all in price levels and, from the talk in
the industry, no one much expects to see prices move lower ---- especially
with so much of the current production being presold.

Perhaps for the next fishing period, if the preliminary bookings are much
lower then the market will expect reduced demand and prices will drop but
with the current strong demand and a supply that is fixed there is not much
chance of lower prices.

--------------------------------------

Peru .. indication fishmeal prices.

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE FOB CONTAINER AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

Specifications----------------------FOB Peru $

FAQ basis 65 protein----------------1320/1330 m/t
FAQ 65 protein gtee----------------- 1320/1330 m/t
FAQ 66 protein gtee----------------- 1330/1340 m/t
FAQ 67 protein gtee-----------------1340/1350 m/t

65/66 pro standard steam---------1330/1340 m/t
67 pro standard steam-------------1340/1350 m/t
67 pro 150 TVN----------------------1350/1360 m/t
67 pro 120 TVN-----------------------1360/1370 m/t
67 pro 1000 hist, 120 TVN--------1370/1380 m/t
67 pro 500 hist, 120 TVN----------1380/1390 m/t

Fish oil .. crude bulk---------------- 640/660 m/t
Fish oil - crude flexitank-----------690/740 m/t
Fish oil - crude drums--------------740/760 m/t
Fish oil - Omega 3 gtee ----------1100/1130 m/t

Very best regards

Wayne Bacon

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be
reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing
contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation
of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without
notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As
such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or
published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers,
directors, employees or affiliates

Copyright © 2009 Wayne S. Bacon