UK: 196 Rose Street, Unit 143, Edinburgh EH2 4AT, Scotland
UK Fax: 44.20.7681.1577 Phone: 44.131.208.0508 Mobile: 44.7762.740.270
USA Phone: 1.646.502.8623 Fax: 1.212.504.8033 Argentina Fax: 54.11.4032.0069
Email: tradegroup@gmail.com WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
SKYPE: bacon39a
SECTION 1 -- GRAINS AND VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
----------------------------------------
Prices for grain and vegetable protein meals were a little calmer this week as the USA crop situation seems to have been factored in to all the prices. There is still a lot of talk about how much damage has been done to corn and soybeans but it is too early to know for certain. The current crop condition report from the USA shows that both corn and soymeal are very far below previous years in overall condition. While these reports do change from week to week and improvement in the condition is expected, early estimates to seem to support some crop damage.
There is a USDA crop acreage report at the end of June that traders are all waiting to see and it is expected that there will be quite a lot of market nervousness over the next few days as we get close to the report ---- of course the USA weather and the Argentina situation have not helped the nervousness.
Speaking of Argentina, the export tax situation is now going to be debated by the Argentina parliament, which should at least allow different opinions to be heard. Some of the farm groups have said that it is a waste of time as the parliament will just follow the government but that is not a certainty. At least it should allow grain movement to get back to something close to normal while the parliament considers the situation.
So what about prices ---- this is summer time in the northern hemisphere and the time of crop concerns and fluctuating price ---- the trend today remains for higher prices but given some very good growing weather in the USA prices could turn lower --- will that happen??? Well, every day cant be a bad growing day and eventually what goes up must come down but when will it come down --- I only wish I knew.
--------------------------------------------------
FOB factory or location specified, prices in US$ – in metric tones:
Nola – is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA Gulf export port.
Corn – FOB Nola………………………….USD 304/314 m/t down USD 5 m/t
Corn – FOB Argentina …………..……….USD 270/276 ---- 2008 new crop
Corn – FOB Brazil…………...……………USD 263/265 ---- 2008 new crop
Soymeal – 48 pro – FOB Nola…………..USD 466/463 Aug/Sep--- up USD 5 m/t
Soymeal – 44 pro – FOB Nola…………..USD 455/462 Aug/Sep--- up USD 5 m/t
Soymeal Argentina – Rotterdam………..USD 530/533 m/t CNF Rotterdam
Soymeal Argentina –45 profat…………..USD 432/437 m/t FOB Argentina – July/August
Soymeal 48 Brazil – Rotterdam…………USD 555/558 m/t CNF Rotterdam
Soymeal Brazil – 48 profat pellets………USD 448/440 m/t FOB Brazil – July/August
Soymeal Indian 46/48 pro – FOB……….USD 480/485…. m/t FOB India port
Corn Gluten Feed – USA FOB Nola……USD 200/205 --- steady
Corn Gluten Meal – USA FOB Nola.……USD 645/648 --- steady
DDGS – 36 profat – USA FOB Nola...….USD 235/240 --- up USD 5 m/t
Meat and bone meal, East Coast……….USD 430/440 m/t – up USD 50 m/t
Feather meal, 80 protein…………………USD 390/410 m/t – up USD 50 m/t
Poultry meal – 57 pro, East Coast………USD 425/440 m/t – up USD 45 m/t
--------------------------------------
According to news reports the Argentina agriculture situation may be improving – but only time will tell. Our suppliers in the meat and bone meal business have been having a very difficult time both getting a steady supply of raw materials for production and then getting containers for export orders. However, if the government is able to solve the problems over the next couple of week then all could be back to normal by August.
It has been a very difficult period for producers and for users of meat and bone meal as South American prices have been very high compared to USA and OZ/NZ price. However, with USA prices for meat and bone meal up by USD 50 m/t it is expected that there will be increased demand from Asia for South American meat and bone meal. USA product was a bargain for a period but now looks like every origin is now at about the same price levels, so buyers will be looking more closely at all origins.
As to prices --- we have not seen any weakening of prices in South America but perhaps once Argentina get its meat and bone meal back up to former production levels, we could see some weakness in prices --- but this also depends on world market prices.
Currently we see South American prices from a low of about USD 560 cnf Egypt to a high of USD 630 CNF Egypt – all for 45 protein MBM. It is a wide price range but then the supply is extremely variable.
So, prices steady but perhaps weakening a little if Argentina is solved.
I should mention that Indian corn gluten meal business has been very good – export quantity is quite small but the quality is good and come with a 0.05 max non-protein nitrogen specification and analysis so there is no chance of any blending, as was seen from China in corn gluten meal. The Indian price is about USD 50 m/t less than USA product, in bags, in containers
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES – PERUVIAN
-----------------------------------------
Well, the major fishing season is over in Peru and for the next few months we will just have the regular small scale southern fishing that is allowed. The next major fishing season for anchovy should be in November – about four months from now. Much of the fleet will now be used for commercial fishing for the fish industry, mainly for cleaned and processed fish for freezing or canning.
It has been reported in trade papers that sales volume has picked up as the fishing season ended and that there has been quite a bit of interest from buyers in China --- it is said that most of the sales have been for FAQ grade fishmeal.
Prices did move up a little this week – some reports say USD 10 m/t while others put the increase as high as USD 30 m/t. The actual increase is probably somewhere in the middle but, as we have all expected, the fishing is over and now the demand is there but supply is limited. With total available supply estimated to be below 300,000 m/t – some of which is probably pre-sold – and demand for at least the next 4 months to cover then it would seem that demand will probably exceed supply and prices should tend to higher levels.
With world protein prices at record levels but fishmeal well below previous high levels it is expected that demand will be very good from major buyers and smaller buyers will have to fight for what is left – and pay higher prices for the right.
--------------------------------------
Peru – indication fishmeal prices.
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE FOB CONTAINER AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Specifications…………………..FOB Peru $
FAQ basis 65 protein…………… 1030/1040m/t
FAQ 65 protein gtee……………. 1030/1040m/t
FAQ 66 protein gtee……………..1040/1050m/t
FAQ 67 protein gtee……………..1050/1060 m/t
65/66 pro standard steam………1050/1060 m/t
67 pro standard steam………….1060/1070 m/t
67 pro 150 TVN……………….. 1070/1080 m/t
67 pro 120 TVN …………………1080/1090 m/t
67 pro 1000 hist, 120 TVN……..1090/1100 m/t
67 pro 500 hist, 120 TVN………1120/1130 m/t
Fish oil – crude bulk……………..1700 m/t
Fish oil – crude drums…………..1800 m/t
Fish oil – crude, flexitank… …….1900 m/t
Very best regards
Wayne Bacon
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
counter
