WEEKLY ANIMAL/VEGETABLE PROTEIN MEAL REPORT July 05, 2009
(a
Bahamas Corporation)
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SECTION 1 -- GRAINS AND VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
This week was a short week in the USA with Friday being a holiday for the
USA Independence Day. With a shorter work week and a longer weekend the
last trading day of the week tends to get exciting and this week was no
exception ---- everything seemed to be lower on Thursday. Corn and soybeans
dropped as did soymeal. For the week we did end up with corn prices down by
about USD 15/16 m/t but both soybeans and soymeal, for the old crop, were
higher on the week.
The large spread in price on soybeans and soymeal between July and September
still does exist but will shrink the closer that we get to the 2009 USA
harvest. The USDA report earlier in the week was not too much of a surprise
to the market. USDA reports are always at least somewhat of a surprise and
do then tend to cause the market prices to jump or dip but unless the
reports are a major surprise the market just continues on in the price
direction established.
Looking at the USA growing situation, the forecasts for the next few days
seem to show good overall growing weather and with a good forecast prices
would normally slide a little lower. We will probably not see much more
price weakness in any old crop prices but new crop for corn and soybeans
could move lower with continued good weather.
FOB factory or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:
Nola is New Orleans, Louisiana .. USA Gulf export port.
Corn FOB Nola USA-------------------------USD 160/162 m/t
Corn FOB Argentina port-------------------USD 169/171 m/t
Corn FOB Brazil port-------------------------USD 180/182 m/t
Sorghum FOB Nola USA-------------------USD 152/154 m/t
Soymeal 48 pro, FOB Nola----------------USD 488 July/Aug, 420 Oct
Soymeal 44 pro, FOB Nola----------------USD 477 July/Aug, 409 Oct
Soymeal Argentina Rotterdam-----------USD 457/460 m/t
Soymeal FOB Argentina--------------------USD 425/428 m/t Aug/Sep
Soymeal 48 Brazil Rotterdam-------------USD 463/466 m/t
Soymeal FOB Brazil---------------------------USD 426/430 m/t Aug/Sep
Soymeal 48 Indian FOB----------------------USD 450/455 m/t
Corn Gluten Feed USA FOB Nola-------USD 115/120 m/t - July/Aug
Corn Gluten Meal USA FOB Nola------- USD 720/730 m/t - July/Aug
Corn gluten meal Indian 60 pro-----------USD 760/770 m/t CNF Egypt/Africa
port
Corn gluten meal China 60 pro--------------USD 700/720 m/t CNF Egypt/Africa
port
DDGS 36 profat USA FOB Nola.---------USD 153/156 m/t - June/August
Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 pro---------USD 520/530 m/t
Feather meal 80 protein----------------------USD 560/590 m/t
Poultry meal 57 pro, East Coast-----------USD 510/530 m/t -
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It looks like the very best feed ingredient these days could be USA origin
DDGS, with 36 profat and a steadily dropping price it certainly competes
very well with both corn and soymeal. In the USA the demand for DDGS in the
feed ration drops in the summer months but the production of ethanol and its
by-product DDGS just keeps in going this, of course, results in a larger
available supply of DDGS for the reduced demand. Export demand has been
very good for DDGS but still not enough to make up for the drop in USA
domestic demand. It is expected that the low price for DDGS versus corn and
soymeal could continue for the next few weeks which makes it a great
summertime bargain.
We have also seen a drop in the other corn related items: corn gluten meal
and corn gluten feed, both of which have slipped a little lower as corn
prices have dipped. We still see corn gluten meal as being very expensive
but as long as other protein items are prices high there will not be a great
deal of weakness in CGM. Once we get into the soybean harvest months and
soymeal prices drop to a much more reasonable level, as can be seen by the
CBOT futures prices, then we should see some weakness in the export CGM
price.
It has been reported out of Egypt that all the rejected lots of meat and
bone meal from South America have been successfully resold to other
destinations, so importers have been able to recover at least some of their
costs. Prices were said to be in the USD 360 m/t CNF Vietnam for many of
the shipments --- far below the importers original purchase price but much
better than the total loss that they faced in Egypt.
We have not said much about meat and bone meal in the past couple of weeks.
That is because our main market was to Egypt an with no current shipments to
Egypt there is not much that we can say. In the past we have not done any
meat and bone meal business to Asia or the Far East but due entirely to the
re-exports from Egypt we are receiving a great many more inquiries from
those regions ---- perhaps we may expand our business to cover that area.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES .. PERUVIAN
------------------------------------------
I have not as yet seen the final fishing figures for last week but we must
be very close to having filled the fishing quota for the period. The last
report that I had showed only about 10m tons of fish to go and even though
catches had dropped it would not take too long to catch that small quantity.
Over the next few weeks we will certainly hear what everyone thinks about
the fishing season and how the new Peruvian quota system worked --- some
will say bad and other will say good. In total I think that the industry
will feel that the system is better than that which existed in the past but
it will take a little time until the quota system is adjusted a little and
performs as well as the designers wanted. However, it does seem to be going
in the right direction.
Speaking of direction, prices have found theirs and it seems to be to higher
levels. There was a report published this week on the internet that
forecasted fishmeal prices to be at least 10 percent higher in coming weeks.
This is not all that surprising as the world supply of fishmeal is quite low
and the overall demand has been very good. Peru, in particular, has very
limited supplies of fishmeal to last for the next 4 months or so with no
major fishing.
Price have moved up by about USD 20 m/t in the past week or so with the
upward pressure on the higher grades pushing some grades even higher.
Because the higher quality grades are produced in much smaller quantities it
is easy for these price to jump on a rise in demand.
We have been talking quite a bit about USA Menhaden fishmeal for the past
couple of reports and this remains a very cost competitive product - at
least in the short term. The quality is very good, the specs are great and
the TVN and histamine is very low --- for some buyers the USA fishmeal can
be a problem due to the 12 pct max fat and the limited packaging
alternatives - 50 kg bags being very, very expensive compared to bulk
containers. Overall a great product at a very good price if you can use
bulk or one ton bags.
--------------------------------------
Peru .. indication fishmeal prices.
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE FOB CONTAINER AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Specifications----------------------FOB Peru $
FAQ basis 65 protein----------------980/990 m/t
FAQ 65 protein gtee-----------------980/990 m/t
FAQ 66 protein gtee-----------------990/1000 m/t
FAQ 67 protein gtee-----------------1000/1010 m/t
65/66 pro standard steam---------1010/1020 m/t
67 pro standard steam-------------1030/1040 m/t
67 pro 150 TVN----------------------1050/1060 m/t
67 pro 120 TVN-----------------------1060/1070 m/t
67 pro 1000 hist, 120 TVN--------1070/1080 m/t
67 pro 500 hist, 120 TVN----------1080/1090 m/t
Fish oil .. crude bulk---------------- 650/700 m/t
Fish oil - crude drums--------------750/800 m/t
Very best regards
Wayne Bacon
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be
reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing
contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation
of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without
notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As
such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or
published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers,
directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2009 Wayne S. Bacon
