Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Fw: World Crop Calendar

 
 
 
The very detailed AMIS crop calendar is available at the link above for wheat, maize rice and soybeans --- the only problem is that it is a very, very, very large PDF file.  However it does show a great deal of detail regarding planting and harvesting in most major producing countries of the world.
 
Wayne Bacon
 
 
HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd  -- Grain Trading   
-------------------------
Representation Office:
13+220 Quartier La Galine, St. Remy de Provence, France 13210
Phone: 33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: 33.6.8068.4564   
Fax: 33.4.5774.7575     SKYPE:........bacon39A    
WWW:.hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Email:.. tradegroup@hammersmith.biz,  
.......................................................
Corporate office: Trident Serv., Kings Court, Bay St.,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.
 
        A GAFTA member corporation
 

 

Monday, January 28, 2013

Weekly report -- Jan 28, 2013

 

 

Hammersmith Marketing Ltd  - Grain Trading

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   January 28, 2013

                                                       (a Bahamas Corporation)

 

 

France:  Rep. Office: 33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: 33.6.8068.4564    Fax: 33.4.5774.7575

13-220 Quartier La Galine, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

Head Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com       SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

 

Sorry but I am a day or two late with my report this week – I was travelling much of last week so fell a little behind on my reports.

 

 

SECTION 1:  FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

You could probably say that this past week has been a reasonably quiet week – at least when compared to a few weeks in the recent past.  I guess that everyone was just catching their breath and trying to digest all the market news.

 

USA corn prices were off a little for the week as South American weather looked good for all crops and then ethanol production looked to be slipping a little and you add to this some not very spectacular export numbers and it all leads to lower corn prices, at least for now.  There was a also a drop in the cattle on feed levels and the new placements levels – at least a drop against what the trade expected, so this could also lead a little toward lower corn demand.

 

Reading a number of trade reports this weekend it seems that most feel that the corn prices will trend higher over the next few weeks and that the current price level could attract more demand and that perhaps we will see an increase in ethanol production due to better processing margins that come with lower cost corn.

 

Soybeans and soymeal were up a little on the week and finished the week on a bit of a weak close as higher prices during the day just could not be maintained to the end.  As is usual this time of year, everyone is watching the situation in Brazil and Argentina and the experts are falling over each other trying to come up with the best forecast for crop condition.  It is said that the early part of February will be very important for crop development in Argentina so we are all watching the weather very closely.

 

The USA export sales report on Friday was lower that the trade had expected, at least in old crop soybeans, but new crop sales were very good as China is lining up their business for later in the year.

 

According to most experts, there seems to be little reason for soybean prices to move lower as when they do drop a little there is a rush of buying interest that stops prices from moving lower.  We all know where prices will be in the spring when Brazil and Argentina are shipping and this is reflected in trading prices ---- it looks like the only major worry at present is the risk of bad weather in South America and the possible price rally that that could cause.

 

   

FOB port or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA

USD 313>>308  

Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein

USD 350/353   

Wheat, milling Black Sea 11.5 pro

USD 352/358

Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port

USD 341/344

Wheat, milling, Argentina, Necochea port

USD 345/360 Feb/Mar

Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 305/310

Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 310/312

Barley, feed, Argentina, Necochea port

USD 295/305 Mar/June

Barley, feed, Black Sea

USD 317/325

Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest

USD 320/325

 

 

Corn, FOB NOLA USA

USD  306/308 Feb/Apr

Corn, FOB Argentina ----- spot price

USD  297/299 Feb/Mar

Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD  285>>272  Apr/Jun

Corn, FOB Brazil port ----- spot price

USD  295/297 Feb/Mar

Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD  290>>246  July/Aug

Corn, FOB Black Sea

USD  305/310 

Corn, FOB France

USD  324/326

Sorghum, Black Sea

USD  n/a

Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free

USD  313/316  

Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free

USD  asked 250/bid 235 Mar/May

 

 

Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA

USD  515/520  January

Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD  536>>482 F/M/A/M

Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

USD  523>>448 F/M/A/M  

Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina

USD  490>>418  F/M/J/J  

Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

USD  525>>455 Feb/Apr/May   

Soymeal, FOB Brazil

USD  493>>425  Feb/M/J/J    

Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB

USD  530/535

 

Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t

 

Corn Gluten Feed,  USA FOB NOLA

USD   272/275 m/t  

Corn Gluten Meal,  USA FOB NOLA

USD   750/770 m/t 

DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD   350>>345 m/t  

DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asian ports

USD   384/390 m/t 

 

 

DDGS prices continue to move higher as supply is tight due to lower ethanol production and buying interest remains quite good – both domestic and export.  Demand from Vietnam seems strong at present but buyer's price ideas are quite a bit below the current US market level.  There is also good interest from China but due to current registration requirements for USA producers in China there is some question on how quickly shipments will be able to be made. 

 

Two more things on DDGS – it is now fully approved as a non-hazardous cargo which makes export shipments much easier and perhaps a little less expensive and also that there looks to be a container freight rate increase coming which will push up the CNF prices.

 

Corn gluten meal prices continue to slide lower --- traders in the USA have said that increased production of CGM is currently creating a surplus in supply – one that probably wont last for too long as sharp-eyed buyers will scoop up the excess supply at what looks like a bargain price – certainly a bargain compared to prices only a few weeks ago.

 

Corn gluten feed export prices are just treading water – not going up or down – guess prices are just waiting for the next move in corn prices in order to decide which way to go. 

 

 

 

Sorry but I have not included the international prices on animal proteins this week as I seem to have lost touch with a couple of my sources for international CNF prices – hopefully I will be able to have updated prices again next week.

 

According to trade reports the prices for anima proteins in Asia have dropped by about USD 25 m/t in the past week as export supplies from Australia are picking up and sellers have moved prices a little lower in trying to get some business booked before the Chinese New Year.  However, export prices from the USA for feathermeal and poultry meal have moved higher and even meat and bone meal has moved up a little.  MBM still looks like reasonable bargain against soymeal in the domestic markets in the USA and any increased demand in the USA will tend to push export prices higher.

 

There is a note in the fishmeal section below on the EU's new regulations on animal protein use in fish feed.

 

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein

USD  385/410 m/t   

Feathermeal  80 protein USA

USD  650/680 m/t          

Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA

USD  540/600 m/t  

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

 Fishing in Peru has slacked off quite a bit with the daily catch levels down to 8 or 9,000 m/t per day and only about one hundred or so vessels still out fishing – of course with new mini-bans in many areas it is tough to reach higher catch levels.  The question now is whether the quota will be reached this month.  There was about 100,000 m/t left on the quota on the 24th and at 9,000 m/t per day this will take ten days to land – but there are not ten fishing days left in January, so we may come up short on January just as we did on December.

 

There has not been a great deal of new business booked in the last few days as China gets ready to close down for the New Year holidays and other major destinations are finding lower cost supplies in other areas. 

 

According to trade reports out of Peru there is now available stock of about 40,000 m/t of various grades of fishmeal on hand but when you look at how long a period this stock must cover before the next fishing season then there is really not very much available.

 

Interestingly there seems to be some weakness in fishmeal prices in Peru with most grades of fishmeal dropping lower on the week – some more expensive grades by USD 50 m/t or so. Perhaps the drop in prices will get buyer a little more active or perhaps things will just stay quiet until China is back in the market again.

 

No matter what, there is not going to be a huge stock of Peruvian fishmeal available and I suspect that buyers will once again be fighting over the remaining stock in coming weeks.  It could be that the weakness in prices this week is a buying opportunity.

 

I should mention that the EU has revised regulations on the use of animal protein in fish feed formulations – non-ruminant EU produced animal protein will be allowed to be used and this should reduce the imports of fishmeal and reduce the exports of some animal protein items from the EU. EU feathermeal and poultry meal have been in demand in Asia and other areas due to the high quality and very competitive prices but with increase EU consumption it is expected that export supplies will shrink while prices will increase.

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

 

 

FAQ basis 65 protein

1800/1810 m/t

65/66 pro standard steam

1840/1850 m/t

67 protein standard steam

1840/1850 m/t

67 protein SD 150  TVN

1900/1920 m/t

67 protein SD 120 TVN

1950/1970 m/t

67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN

2000/2020 m/t

68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN

2050/2070 m/t

 

 

Fish oil .. crude bulk

2500/2550

Fish oil – crude drums

2700/2750

Fish oil – flexitank

2650/2700

Fish oil – Omega 3 – 28%EPA/DHA

3000/3500

 

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

Wayne Bacon

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete.  Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy.  All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2013 Wayne S. Bacon