Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Weekly report --- future.

 
The Hammersmith Weekly Report on feed grains and animal proteins has been issued for the last 25+ years as a free service to buyers, end-users and the feed industry in general but it is reaching the point where we may have to charge for the report.  While there is quite a bit of information available from various sources more and more of the information needed for the report has to be paid for, which does make a free report very difficult to maintain.
 
Most of our work in the past few years has been in consulting to the industry rather than actual trading, so it is very difficult to justify maintaining a free report that does not generate any business income.
 
So, my question to all readers of the Hammersmith Weekly Report is: would you be interested in continuing to receive the report if there was a yearly subscription fee of USD 250. I am aware that a great many readers will have no interest if the report is not free but am hoping that there is a base of readers who do find the report to be very valuable and worth a subscription.
 
No final decision has been made on the report but for 2014 it may be either that the report is subscriber only or it may be discontinued.
 
Please let me hear you comments.
 
Thanks
 
Wayne Bacon
 
 

HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd  -- Grain Trading   
-------------------------
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Phone: 33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: 33.6.8068.4564   
Fax:   33.4.5774.7575     SKYPE:........bacon39A    
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Email:.. tradegroup@hammersmith.biz,  
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Corporate Office: Trident Serv., Kings Court, Bay St.,
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Sunday, October 27, 2013

Weekly report Oct 27, 2013

 

 

Hammersmith Marketing Ltd  - Grain Trading

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   October 27, 2013

                                                                       

 

 

France:  Rep. Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

Corporate Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com       SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

 

I was in Kiev this week for the "Ukraine Grain Congress –2013" and found it to be a very informative conference, at least from the government point of view. The conference was quite well attended overall but very poorly attended by the local grain trade or for that matter by the international grain trade.  It looks like there are just too many grain conferences about Black Sea grain this year and it is certainly too expensive to attend them all.

 

 

SECTION 1:  FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Not a great deal of price movement in corn this week. Perhaps this is because buyers and sellers are still missing the regular USDA reports.  At least they are all catching up a little at a time and it looks like by next week most everything normally issued weekly will be back up on schedule. It is amazing how much we all count on grain reports from various governments – not just from the USA but also from all the major producing/exporting countries.  I certainly miss the reports from the EU if they happen to be closed on a normal reporting day. Ah well, c'est la vie.

 

So, corn was very quiet this week with cash buyers bidding below the market while sellers were trying to keep the prices up.  The big concern with corn at present is the very large short positions held by some traders and what could happen if the USDA WASDE report in November is a little  bullish.  Needless to say the shorts are looking for a USDA report that will push prices lower but that is certainly not guaranteed, even though a number of private reports seem to favor higher yields and lower prices.  We will just have to wait until November 8th to see what the USDA has to say.

 

In the meantime, some experts seem to feel that corn is due for a rally since prices don't seem to want to go lower but any rally will probably be limited in size and quite short term as almost everyone is looking for a fantastic corn crop and weak prices.

 

Soybeans and soymeal were up a little on the week but not a huge amount.  The soybean market is feeling the normal harvest pressure and with the harvest moving along nicely in most areas it is very hard to see any good reason for much of a rally in soybean prices.

 

For the time being it looks like soybean prices are going to find it difficult to move above current levels and we will probably see a trading range for the next few days as we get closer to the USDA WASDE report on the 8th.  Once we see the report and the new price trend is set (at least until the next report) then most eyes will turn to Argentina and Brazil for new price trends and the South American weather will once again become the main concern.

 

    

FOB port or location specified.. Prices in US$.. in metric tones:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

 Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA

USD 291/296 Nov/Jan  

 Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein

USD 332/336 Nov/Jan  

 Wheat, milling Black Sea 11.5 pro – 30,000+ m/t

USD 266/277

 Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port

USD 283/285

 Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver

USD 350/353 Dec/Jan new crop

 Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 242/245

 Wheat bran, Black Sea

USD 190/205

 

 

 Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 256/258

 Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

USD 220/230 Jan/Feb new crop

 Barley, feed, Black Sea – 30,000+

USD 240/245

 Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest

USD 250/255

 

 Corn, FOB NOLA USA

USD 209>>204 Dec>>Jan

 Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest

USD 226>>224 Nov>>Jan

 Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD 213/219 Nov/Dec

 Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD 191/196 Nov/Dec

 Corn, FOB Black Sea – 30,000+ m/t

USD 198>>192 Spot>>Nov/Dec  

 Corn, FOB France

USD 248/251 Oct/Nov

 

 

 Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free

USD  232/234 Nov/Jan   

 Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free

USD  192/198 Nov/Jan

 

 Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA

USD 560>>543 Nov>>Jan 2014

 Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD 615>>588 Spot>>Jan 2014

 Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

USD 590>>565 Spot>>Jan 2014  

 Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina

USD 543/546 Nov/Dec  

 Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

USD 587>>553 Spot>>Jan 2014

 Soymeal, FOB Brazil

USD 535/539 Nov/Dec   

 Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB

USD 530/540

 

Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t

 

 Corn Gluten Meal,  USA FOB NOLA

USD   730/740 m/t 

 Corn Gluten Feed,  USA FOB NOLA

USD   220/230 m/t  

 

 

 DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD   300>>290 m/t Nov>>Jan  

 DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asia

USD   346/352 Nov/Jan

 

 

The FOB prices for corn by-products are up again this week and it seems that much of the reason is due to the harvest pressure on transportation logistics.  Everyone is fighting for shipping space to try to get their grains and by-products to an export price and this is pushing up the FOB port prices.  The FOB prices have moved up more than domestic prices due to the extra cost of getting the product to the export ports.

 

As was reported last week, there is very little new buyer export interest in 2013 shipments as the price spread is just too high for buyers – not just for logistic but also for limited available supply in nearby positions. 

 

Asian buyers are still active in the DDGS market but they all seem to be looking at the first quarter of 2014 for shipment.  According to this weeks US Grains Council report there are large arrivals of DDGS expected for China in the next few weeks and this will keep the Chinese buyers out of the nearby market.

 

Producers of by-product are reported to have been quite active in the corn market recently as corn prices are very attractive and their margins are good – even ethanol producers are reported to have good margins on these lower corn prices.

 

Prices should follow corn prices, lower or higher, but the squeeze on transport to export ports may keep the FOB prices higher than one would expect.

 

 

USA corn by-product exports – Jan/Aug 2013 in m/t

 

Major importing countries

 

 

Distillers Dried

Grains – DDGS

Corn gluten feed

Corn gluten meal

China

2,291,000

 

 

Mexico

821,700

 

51,800

Chile

 

 

80,500

Canada

356,600

22,200

39,900

Columbia

 

 

46,800

Malaysia

 

 

48,900

Japan

271,800

 

27,700

Vietnam

267,400

 

20,400

South Korea

268,500

27,700

 

Israel

103,600

107,800

20,100

Thailand

171,700

 

22,600

Taiwan

155,700

 

22,700

Turkey

223,900

110,200

 

Indonesia

148,200

 

185,000

Ireland

145,700

216,000

 

Egypt

97,300

25,100

91,400

Morocco

92,900

41,700

 

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

 Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein

USD  sorry no updated prices this week

 Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein

USD

 Europe MBM 50 protein

USD

 Australian MBM 45 protein

 Australian MBM 50 protein

 Australian Feathermeal

 Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade

USD 480/500 mt CNF Asia

USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia

USD 610/630 m/t CNF Asia

USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia

 USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein

 USA Feathermeal, 80 protein

 USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

 USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia

USD 670/690 m/t CNF Asia

USD 570/600 m/t CNF Asia

USD 780/800  m/t CNF Asia

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

 Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein

USD 410/430 m/t   

 Feathermeal  80 protein USA

USD 550/570 m/t          

 Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA

USD 500/520 m/t  

 

 

It seems to have been a very slow week for animal proteins as there has really been very little in the way of reported sales from the USA in either the domestic of export markets but, on the other hand the animal protein market in Asia seems to just want to keep going lower and lower.  It looks like there is currently just too much supply and too little demand and sellers are fighting each other for every speck of business.

 

Vegetable protein prices were not down this week so you cant blame to fall in prices on that, so it just looks like it is currently just an excess supply situation in Asia combined with a weak US dollar that are making prices dip.

 

If the domestic demand in the USA was to pick up this would push export prices a little higher and will slow or stop the drop in prices in Asia but it is said that both Australia and New Zealand have very good stocks of animal proteins so this may keep prices down for a while longer.

 

 

USA export sales and shipments Jan/Aug 2013 in m/t

 

 

Feathermeal

Meat and bone meal –

Including pork and

Poultry meal

Indonesia

78,900

36,200

Chile

36,700

 

Canada

4,900

 

Vietnam

4,300

 

Mexico

 

22,100

Canada

 

29,600

Philippines

 

24,900

China

 

15,100

Thailand

 

10,900

Netherlands

 

3,600

Ecuador

 

4,980

Guatemala

 

8,105

 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

There is really nothing to say about fishmeal this week – all the major players are at the IFFO meeting where they are doing all their wheeling and dealing behind closed doors and all of us poor folks not behind the doors will have to wait for a week or so to get some idea of what, if anything, has been newly booked for the upcoming Peru fishing season.

 

The prices this week are exactly the same as last week.  None of the traders have anything to say and there aren't even any interesting rumours or stories to report.  Hopefully there will be much more to say next week but then, it may just be very quiet until the new fishing season begins.

  

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

 ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

 

 

 65 protein 

1300/1310 m/t

 65/66 protein

1330/1340 m/t

 67 protein standard steam

1360/1380 m/t

 67 protein SD 150  TVN

1380/1400 m/t

 67 protein SD 120 TVN

1400/1410 m/t

 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1430/1450 m/t

 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN

1450/1470 m/t

 

 

 Fish oil .. crude bulk

1800/1850

 Fish oil – crude drums

2000/2050

 Fish oil – flexitank

1950/2000

 Fish oil – Omega 3 – 28%EPA/DHA

2400/2450

 

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

Wayne Bacon

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete.  Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy.  All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2013 Wayne S. Bacon