Saturday, December 28, 2013

Weekly report Dec 28, 2013

 

 

 

Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   December 28, 2013

                                                                       

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

Corporate Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com       SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

 

 

SECTION 1:  FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

It was a very quiet week last week with both cash and futures volumes at very low levels due to the Christmas holidays and the run in to next week's New Year holidays. According to the CBOT the trading last week was at about the lowest level of the year.

 

Corn prices ended up not doing much last week, even with the further news of corn rejections out of China but the much higher than expected corn sales and exports certainly helped to keep the market steady. There didn't seem to be much news or much incentive to cause any serious change to corn prices.

 

There has been lots of rain in Brazil and this is now moving into Argentina. So, some areas have just the rain they needed while others are having some flooding problems. Overall the rain seems to be of benefit to most corn areas but will miss some dry areas in Argentina. Argentina corn planting is running a little behind normal but that is because farmers waited a little for the rain to arrive. Planting will catch up and the late seeds will benefit from the rains.

 

From now to the South American corn harvest, the weather in South America should be the major factor for corn price trends and a number of USA corn experts are saying that corn prices will stay in a range of plus/minus USD 10 m/t until something exciting happens.

 

Soybeans and soymeal for March/May in the USA were weaker due to the effect of the South American crop on the world prices but for Dec to Feb there are no deals in the price, as with the USA being about the only source for the next couple of months, prices are staying quite firm.

 

USA export sales and shipments were at the top of the expected range and this probably helped soybeans from moving any lower but with the improving weather in Argentina and the rains coming in it may not be too easy to keep soybean/meal prices from sliding lower. However, as one expert was quick to point out, if we don't see the expected rains in Argentina then we could be in for a price rally.

 

As with corn, the trend for prices will be mainly set by the weather in South America and right now, with rain needed, prices could go either way.   

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000

$25.00

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$39/40.00

US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT

$44/46.00

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT

$40/41.00

US Gulf Morocco: 25,000

$43/45.00

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000

$41/42.00

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$55/57.00

US PNW Asia: 45,000 m/t

$34/36.00

US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t

$31/33.00

France to Algeria: 25,000 m/t

$27.00

France to Saudi Arabia: 60,000 m/t

$35.00

Argentina to Egypt: 50,000

$40.00

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t

$46.00

Argentina to Morocco: 25,000

$45.00

Argentina to Saudi Arabia

$54.00

Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t

$40.00

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$37.00

Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t

$39.00

Brazil to Saudi Arabia

$49.00

Black Sea to Spain: 30,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t

$22/24.00

Black Sea to East Med: coaster

$35/38.00

 

  

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA

USD 271>>266 Jan/Mar  

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein

USD 297>>293 Jan/Mar  

   Wheat, Black Sea 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 293/300

   Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port

USD 284/288

   Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver

USD 332>>320 Jan>>Mar 

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 277/281

   Wheat bran, Black Sea

USD no prices

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 248/251

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

USD 217>>214 Jan/Mar

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

USD 245/248

   Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest

USD 235/240

 

   Corn, FOB NOLA USA

USD 207>>201 Jan>>Mar

   Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest

USD 225>>222 Jan>>Mar

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD 198/203 March new crop

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD 193/196 April new crop

   Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t

USD 210>>202 Spot>>Mar

   Corn, FOB France

USD 244/250 Jan/Mar

 

 

   Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free

USD  233/235 Jan/Mar   

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free

USD  191/195 Jan/Mar

 

   Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA

USD 563>>531 Jan>>Mar 2014

   Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD 588>>563 Spot>>Mar 2014

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

USD 570>>550 Spot>>Mar 2014  

   Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina

USD 534>>524 Jan/Mar  

   Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

USD 567>>549 Spot>>Mar 2014

   Soymeal, FOB Brazil

USD 524>>520 Jan/Mar   

   Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB

USD 575/585

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

USD 544>>523 Jan/Mar

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

USD 488/492 new crop May 2014

   Soybeans, Rotterdam

USD 562>>534 Jan>>Mar

   Soybeans, Black Sea

USD no prices

 

 

Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

USD   760/770 m/t 

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

USD   247/250 m/t  

 

 

   DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD   308>>295 m/t Jan>>Mar  

   DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asia

USD   365>>360 m/t Jan>>Mar

 

The biggest news in the market this week was the rejection by China of 2,000 m/t of DDGS due to unapproved GMO content. Some trade reports say that the rejections are actually higher while others say that this is the only rejection – we will have to wait and see what information comes available in the next few days. China had been importing record levels of DDGS but if the MIR162 problem in the corn is found to be widespread in DDGS then we could see a sudden drop in export shipments to China. The March 2014 DDGS price is quite a bit lower than the January price so the market could be anticipating a drop in Chinese demand for DDGS. Unfortunately, much of the drop in the FOB price will not be seen at the CNF level due to the expected increase in container freight to Asia that will come in Jan/Feb.

 

The trade in the US reports that with the drop in prices for DDGS for March there has been a flurry of export orders, including buyers for China.

 

Corn gluten meal prices were also down a little this week, which had been expected, as prices had been very high compared to other protein alternatives. However, it does not look to want to go much lower unless we see a further drop in other protein items. Corn gluten feed was very quiet on the week.   

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein

USD 520/530 m/t CNF Asia

   Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein

USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia

   Europe MBM, 50 protein

   Europe Poultry meal, 65 protein

   Europe Feathermeal, 80 protein

USD 450/460 m/t CNF Asia

USD 980/1000 m/t CNF Asia

USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia

   Australian MBM 45 protein

   Australian MBM 50 protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein

   Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade

USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia

USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia

USD 650/660 m/t CNF Asia

USD 840/860 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein

   USA Feathermeal, 80 protein

   USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

USD 580/600 m/t CNF Asia

USD 720/730 m/t CNF Asia

USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia

USD 830/850 m/t CNF Asia

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

   Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein

USD 490/510 m/t   

   Feathermeal  80 protein USA

USD 630/650 m/t         

   Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA

USD 550/560 m/t  

 

Not much that can be said about animal proteins this week as there is very little new information available due to the holidays. In the USA the domestic market for both MBM and feathermeal was up by about USD 10 per m/t probably due to winter storms and the increased demand for animal feed for cattle, as is normal during the winter months.

 

There is nothing that can be reported on Asia prices as all the trade sources are very quiet this week and I have no updated market information or prices. We will probably see the same situation next week as the New Year holidays will also reduce the amount of information available.     

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Needless to say, with all the Christmas holidays, the fishing in Peru has dropped off quite a bit in the past week or so. However, the total catch is up to just over 1.9 million m/t which only leaves a little under 400,000 m/t to go to finish the quota. I don't imagine that we will see much of an increase in the daily catch until we get past the New Year holiday. Once we get back to normal vessel levels we should only have 13 to 15 days needed to finish off the quota, assuming the weather remains ok for fishing.

 

Stocks on hand in Peru are estimated to be at about the 90,000 m/t level which is not a burdensome level for the producers as stocks are needed to cover requirements for the next few months.

 

Sales have been very quiet but then most offices have been closed for a few days and most buyers are out of the market until January. The indication prices from Peru did take a little jump higher but this is on very thin volume and limited information. We will not see any very good price ideas for another week or so once everyone gets back to work.

 

According to a couple of Peru trade reports, there should be a jump in demand in January as buyers start to cover their needs for the next few weeks and new interest is expected from Asia and Europe where sales have been small so far this season. Could be an exciting January.  

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

 ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

 

 

   65 protein 

1320/1330 m/t

   65/66 protein

1340/1350 m/t

   67 protein standard steam

1360/1370 m/t

   67 protein SD 150  TVN

1380/1390 m/t

   67 protein SD 120 TVN

1400/1410 m/t

   67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1430/1440 m/t

   68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN

1450/1460 m/t

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

1850/1900

   Fish oil, crude drums

2050/2100

   Fish oil, flexi tank

2000/2050

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

2400/2500

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

Wayne Bacon

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete.  Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy.  All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2013 Wayne S. Bacon