Saturday, March 29, 2014

Weekly Report -- March 29, 2014

 

Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   March 29, 2014

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

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One Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com       SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

 

SECTION 1:  FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Aha, a very big day on Monday as the USDA publishes their Grain Stocks Report along with the Prospective Plantings Report – everyone is waiting to see what these two report will say. However, most everyone says that corn plantings will be down this spring while soybean plantings will increase. No one knows how much the changes will be but everyone is certainly taking a guess.

 

All corn prices did move a little higher this week and much of that was related to speculation about the Monday reports but there was also concern over soil temperatures and the lack of much early corn planting and the feeling that ending stocks for 2013/14 will be lower than previous forecast and that the 2014/15 situation, with lower opening stocks and lower plantings, could lead to higher prices.  But then it is really very early to assume all that – still, the Monday report should get everyone excited. Just don't know if it will have any effect on prices.

 

Soybeans and soymeal were up on the week although the week did end with a whimper. There are still not enough old crop soybeans to go around so nearby prices should remain firm although, depending on the Monday USDA reports the new crop prices may take a hammering. Trade experts feel that for the next few months the US will have to be a soybean importer in order to meet the domestic demand. Most experts feel that the stocks report will show increased soybean stocks but with demand being so high no one is calling for a drop in old stock prices.

 

So, old crop soybeans could go higher but new crop may be in for a fall.

 

Let's all wait and see what Monday and the USDA will bring.  

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

I had a discussion this week with a freight expert on the Black Sea who said that it is almost impossible to book reasonable freight from the area at present with vessel owners asking for sky high rates to do any new freight bookings. Coaster freight is said to be as high as USD 40 m/t for East Med destinations.  

 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000

$20.00

Steady

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$32/34.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT

$36/37.00

Steady

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT

$33/35.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf Morocco: 25,000

$34/36.00

Steady

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000

$34/36.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$48/50.00

Steady

US Gulf China: Panamax

$49/51.00

Steady

US PNW Asia: 45,000 m/t

$34/36.00

Up $1.00

US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t

$23/25.00

Down $2.00

US PNW China: 50,000+ m/t

$26/28.00

Steady

France to Algeria: 30,000 m/t

$25.00

Steady

France to Morocco: 30,000 m/t

$26.00

Steady

France to Egypt: 30,000 m/t

$27.00

Steady

France to Jordan: 50,000 m/t

$32.00

Steady

France to Saudi Arabia: 60,000 m/t

$39.00

Steady

Argentina to Europe: 50,000 m/t

$26.00

Steady

Argentina to Egypt: 50,000

$36/37.00

Steady

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t

$35/36.00

Steady

Argentina to Morocco: 25,000

$34/35.00

Steady

Argentina to Saudi Arabia

$47.00

Steady

Argentina to Spain: 30,000

$34/35.00

Steady

Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Steady

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$28/29.00

Steady

Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t

$31/32.00

Steady

Brazil to Europe

$25.00

Steady

Black Sea to Spain: 30,000 m/t

$20/21.00

No freight offers

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t

$16/17.00

No freight offers

Black Sea to East Med: coaster

$24/25.00

No freight offers

Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k

$29/31.00

No freight offers

Baltic Dry Index

1373

Down 226

Baltic Capesize Index

2557

Down 479

Baltic Panamax Index

978

Down 34

Baltic Handisize Index

649

Down 25

 

  

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA

USD 296>>279 Apr>>Jun

 

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein

USD 349>>336 Apr>>Jun 

 

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 295/300 Apr/Jun

 

   Wheat, Russia 12.0 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 301/306 Apr/Jun

 

   Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port

USD 293/296 Apr/Jun

 

   Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver

USD 350/355 Apr/May 

 

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 250/260

 

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 252/255 Apr/May

 

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

USD 234/240 Apr/May

 

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

USD 245/260

 

   Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest

USD 270/275

 

 

   Corn, FOB NOLA USA

USD 230>>226 Apr>>Jun

 

   Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest

USD 253>>247 Mar>>Jun

 

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD 225>>220 Apr>>May

 

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD 214/219 July/Aug new crop

 

   Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t

USD 252/260 May/Jun

 

   Corn, FOB France

USD 255/260 Apr/May

 

 

 

 

   Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free

USD  263>>245 Apr/July   

 

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free

USD  190/198 Apr/Jun

 

 

 

   Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA

USD 566>>549 Apr>>Jun

 

   Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD 638>>600 Apr>>Jun

 

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

USD 630>>565 Apr>>Jun

 

   Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina

USD 520>>497 May>>Jun  

 

   Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

USD 618>>552 Apr>>Jun

 

   Soymeal, FOB Brazil

USD 530>>479 Apr>>Jun

 

   Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB

USD 635/645

 

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

USD 570>>565 Apr>>Jun

 

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

USD 519>>509  Apr/Jun

 

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

USD 519>>505 Apr>>Jun

 

   Soybeans, Rotterdam

USD 592>>580 Apr>>June

 

   Soybeans, Black Sea

USD 555/575 Apr/Jun

 

 

 

Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

USD   930/940 m/t  Apr/Jun

 

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

USD   225/235 m/t  Apr/Jun

 

 

 

 

   DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD   305>>290 m/t Apr>>Jun

 

   DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asia

USD   375>>368 m/t Apr>>Jun

 

 

With corn and soymeal prices up again this week there was an expectation that corn by-products would move higher but, other than corn gluten meal, this has not happened. Corn gluten feed moved lower as shipping and export logistics are just about all back to normal after a tough few months and the supply of DDGS, looking out a few weeks, will be getting better. Buyers must be expecting even lower prices as the trade says that buyer's bids out a few weeks are USD 10 to 15 m/t below producer's price indications.

 

Because of limited March/April availability for DDGS, there is little that buyers can book before late May and June. However, there is a drop in ethanol production due to slower demand and building stocks that may affect DDGS in a few weeks as there may not be as much available when Chinese buyers are heavily back into the market. The USD 15 to 20 m/t lower prices for future shipments may disappear if supply drops a little.    

 

  

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein

 No prices

   Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein

 No prices

   Australian MBM 45 protein

   Australian MBM 50 protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

USD 620/640 m/t CNF Asia

USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia

USD 860/870 m/t CNF Asia

USD 1020/1040 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein

   USA Feathermeal, 80 protein

   USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

USD 710/730 m/t CNF Asia

USD 900/910 m/t CNF Asia

USD 790/810 m/t CNF Asia

USD 1020/1050 m/t CNF Asia

 

 

 

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

   Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein

USD 570/600 m/t   

   Feathermeal  80 protein USA

USD 750/770 m/t         

   Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA

USD 620/640 m/t  

 

With soymeal and corn gluten meal higher this week both the domestic and export prices for animal proteins were higher in the USA and to a similar degree in Australia and New Zealand. Export demand to Asian markets remains quite good but some seller were saying that Vietnam imports have slowed and that pork problems in Bangladesh have scared off some buyers – and sellers.

 

The supply side for animal proteins seems tight as slaughter was lower in the US and Australia which reduces the production of animal proteins.

 

There has been quite a bit of interest in animal proteins in Europe this week as producers start to educate the public on the use of "non-ruminant processed animal protein" in fish feed. It seems that some retailers have said that they would not carry any fish products if the fish were fed animal proteins. This seems to be a particular problem in France but then the French tend to be against anything that they don't feel is 100% perfect food. Most consumers in the EU seem to feel that BSE could suddenly appear which is why the industry and the feed associations are trying to educate the consumer on the changes in the production of animal proteins since the BSE problems first appeared.

 

I would think that most consumers have no idea if the fish they buy was fed some animal protein, excluding fishmeal, unless the press or the supermarket points it out to them.   

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

Most of the important players in the fishmeal business are in China for the JCI Spring Conference on feed materials, so things are a little quiet on the news side of the business. Not that much news was expected since we are between seasons in Peru.

 

According to a couple of traders the stock of unsold fishmeal in Peru is now down to zero. Of course that is not entirely correct as the odd lot still surfaces from time to time but one can probably say that there is nothing left.

 

The biomass analysis cruise is still chugging along with results expected in about 2 to 3 weeks and the earliest fishing time to be early to mid-May. Quite few people have been saying that with the risk of an El Nino event later in the years, the next fishing quota could be set higher to insure a decent supply of fishmeal – just in case the season after is a disaster.

 

There has been very little done in early sales for the next fishing period but that which has been done seems to be at about the price levels quoted below. Of course where the prices go will depend greatly on the size of the quota and the expectation of an El Nino event. If the quota is above 2.5 million m/t but there is an El Nino then prices will probably stay firm as long-term supply and demand will be the important factor.

 

I was reading one trade report this week that said the prices were probably about USD 100 m/t higher than they should be – perhaps Chinese buyers will start bidding at USD 100 down.

 

It will be interesting to see if anything happens this week in China and if new season orders start to be booked.   

 

 ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

 

 

   65 protein 

1420/1440 m/t

   65/66 protein

1450/1460 m/t

   67 protein standard steam

1520/1540 m/t

   67 protein SD 150  TVN

1540/1550 m/t

   67 protein SD 120 TVN

1560/1570 m/t

   67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1580/1590 m/t

   68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN

1600/1610 m/t

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

1900/1950

   Fish oil, crude drums

2100/2050

   Fish oil, flexi tank

2050/2100

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

2600/2700

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

Wayne Bacon

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2014 Wayne S. Bacon