Saturday, April 26, 2014

Weekly report - April 26, 2014

Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   April 26, 2014

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

Corporate Office: Trident Corporate Services (Bahamas) Limited, Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce,

One Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com       SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

 

SECTION  :  FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Corn prices moved higher this week as US weather became the main pricing factor. There was concern over the continuing cold weather is parts of the corn area of the US but most experts say that while cold weather may delay planting a little it takes very little time to catch up. US farmers seem to be able to plant their entire corn crop in just the blink of an eye. Actual planting is probably getting close to 30% which is not far off where it should be.

 

The situation in the Ukraine is also a serious factor for US corn exports and, as we have seen in recent weeks, US corn exports to North Africa and the Middle East are moving higher very quickly as buyers shy away from the Black Sea. Not that there has been any drop in shipments from Ukraine ports, just that major traders are concerned about protecting their supply and are looking to the US.

 

The International Grains Council report that was issued on Friday forecasts a drop in 2014 world corn production from 2013 of 24 mm/t this is 11 mm/t larger a drop than in their March report. However, they forecasts no drop in world corn trade or in consumption as the drop in production will just reduce stocks on hand.

 

Old crop soybean prices slipped lower on the week while new crop prices moved just a little higher. The sale of additional South American soybeans to the US will help to reduce the current tightness in the market and is the main cause for old crop prices dropping. Some of the Brazil soybean orders cancelled by China are said to be flowing into the USA.

 

New crop prices have moved higher due to cold weather concerns in the US and the effect on planting and soil temperatures. So far soybean planting is only at about 3% but this is very close to what one would expect this early in the season. On the other side of things, Brazil reports that their soybean harvest is 94% completed, just about on average.

 

As with corn, soybean prices will become more and more US weather driven in coming days and, other than China, weather will once again be the major market factor.

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000

$17.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$29/31.00

Steady

US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT

$34/35.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT

$30/32.00

Steady

US Gulf Morocco: 25,000

$32/33.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$35/36.00

New

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000

$31/33.00

Steady

US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000

$45/46.00

Steady

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$45/46.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf China: Panamax

$46/47.00

Steady

US PNW Asia: 35/45,000 m/t

$34/36.00

Down $1.00

US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t

$24/25.00

Down $2.00

US PNW China: 50,000+ m/t

$23/24.00

Down $2.00

France to Algeria: 30,000 m/t

$25.00

Steady

France to Morocco: 30,000 m/t

$26.00

Steady

France to Egypt: 30,000 m/t

$26.00

Steady

France to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t

$31.00

Steady

France to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 m/t

$38.00

Steady

Argentina to Europe: 50,000 m/t

$23.00

Steady

Argentina to Egypt: 50,000

$33/34.00

Steady

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t

$34/35.00

Steady

Argentina to Morocco: 25,000

$33/34.00

Steady

Argentina to Saudi Arabia

$43.00

Steady

Argentina to Spain: 30,000

$32/33.00

Down $1.00

Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t

$30/31.00

Steady

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Steady

Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Steady

Brazil to Europe

$25.00

Steady

Black Sea to Spain: 30,000 m/t

$18/19.00

Down $1.00

Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t

$22/23.00

Down $1.00

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t

$14/15.00

Down $1.00

Black Sea to East Med: coaster

$23/24.00

Steady

Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k

$26/28.00

Down $1.00

Baltic Dry Index

930

Up 37

Baltic Capesize Index

1696

Up 105

Baltic Panamax Index

812

Up 52

Baltic Handisize Index

533

Down 16

 

  

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA

 USD 294>>284 Apr>>Jun

X

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein

 USD 346>>336 Apr>>Jun 

X

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 296/301 Apr/Jun

X

   Wheat, Russia 12.0 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 294/297 Apr/Jun

X

   Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port

 USD 298/301 Apr/Jun

X

   Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver

 USD 340/355 May/July 

X

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 348/355 July

x

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 245/248 Apr/Jun

x

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

 USD 220/230 Jul/Aug

X

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 242/246 Apr/Jun

X

   Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest

 USD 267/272

x

 

   Corn, FOB NOLA USA

 USD 236>>233 May/July

x

   Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 248/251 May/July

x

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

 USD 232>>225 Apr>>Jun

X

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 227/234 July/Aug new crop

X

   Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 250/257 May/Jun

X

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 255/260 Apr/Jun

x

 

 

 

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

 USD  268>>251 Apr/July   

x

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD  185/195 Jun/Aug

x

 

 

   Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 591>>566 Apr>>Jun

X

   Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 648>>611 Apr>>Jun

X

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

 USD 590>>565 Apr>>Jun

X

   Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 525>>503 May>>Jun  

X

   Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

 USD 578>>555 Apr>>Jun

x

   Soymeal, FOB Brazil

 USD 520>>490 Apr>>Jun

x

   Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB

 USD 650/660

x

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 578>>568 Apr>>Jun

X

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 532>>523 May/July

X

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 537>>514 Apr>>Jun

X

   Soybeans, Rotterdam

 USD 593>>581 Apr>>June

X

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 USD no offers

x

 

 

Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD   895/910 m/t  May/July

x

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD   225/230 m/t  May/July

x

 

 

 

   DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD   294>>281 m/t May>>July

x

   DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asia

 USD   362>>359 m/t May>>July

x

 

From an export point of view the biggest change in CNF prices for corn by-products was a drop in container rates over the last few days. Demand in Asia, China in particular, for DDGS has slackened off and the demand for containers has followed. China is the major DDGS buyer in Asia but most of their new interest seems to be much later in 2014, August and later, which is softening current prices a tad. The big discount for future months DDGS supply has disappeared, although April/May supply is still quite tight.

 

If China's demand continues at lower levels there could be some more room for export prices to slip lower but, as we get past the US corn planting, the weather and the crop forecasts will begin to have a major effect on all corn by-product prices.

 

This week it has been difficult to get a good representative price on both corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal. Prices seem to be up a little from last week but this may just be due to very thin reported trading rather than an actual overall increase in market prices.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein

 USD 490 m/t CNF Asia

   Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein

 USD 470 m/t CNF Asia

   Australian MBM 45 protein

   Australian MBM 50 protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

 USD 620/640 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 860/870 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 1020/1040 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein

   USA Feathermeal, 80 protein

   USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

 USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 940/950 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 830/850 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 1100/1120 m/t CNF Asia

 

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

   Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein

 USD 540/560 m/t   

   Feathermeal  80 protein USA

 USD 760/780 m/t         

   Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA

 USD 660/680 m/t  

 

Really nothing to report in the animal protein markets this week as the Easter holidays seem to have limited the activity – some countries were closed Thursday and Friday a week ago while others were closed Monday this week and some all three days.

 

Prices for animal proteins from OZ and NZ are expected to move a little higher as this time of year the supply tends to drop off as the slaughter is lower. However, the lower vegetable protein prices in coming weeks will probably limit any upward move for animal proteins. There is also the feeling in the trade that the higher fishmeal quota this season could move fishmeal prices lower and put some downward pressure on animal proteins (as you will see below the fishmeal trade is not expecting lower prices)

 

USA domestic meat and bone meal prices were about USD 10 m/t lower as pressure from very competitive soymeal prices was squeezing MBM out of feed formulations. Feathermeal and poultry meal prices were unchanged on the week.

 

Looking out a few weeks, the trend seem to be for prices for animal proteins to slip a little lower as vegetable proteins are getting more competitive each week and, except for pet food, there is little reason to expect that demand will keep prices up.

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

   So, off we go fishing in Peru. The announced quota of 2.53 million m/t is what people hoped for but higher than what most had expected. The only problem appears to be an expected very high level of juvenile fish (undersize) that may result in area fishing bans over the next few weeks and cause extra movement of fishing fleets. Also, the trade reports that the fleet that is currently fishing the southern quota will probably not move north at once, at least until they have completed their southern quota – no sense in leaving the south then having to return to finish the quota. There is currently about 260,000 m/t left on the 400,000 m/t southern quota.

 

The new 2.5 million m/t quota in the north runs until July 31st (from April 23) but will probably be finished well before July.

 

So far there has been no change at all in fishmeal prices just as there has been no rush to book by ant major buyers. Everyone – buyers and sellers – are just going to hang on and see how the fishing goes and where the supply/demand situation will take us. We will have to see what the industry does during the IFFO meeting in London – perhaps the order books will get filled up or perhaps it may just be more of a wait and see situation until fishing results and yields are better known. There is the chance that with smaller fish – due to the number of juveniles – that the fishmeal and oil yields could be lower than the average season but we have to wait to see.

 

So, so far prices are steady but trade reports seem to favor steady to higher prices rather than anything lower.  

 

As a matter of information, the total fishmeal production year to date in 2014 for Chile, Peru, Denmark and the North Atlantic stands at 370,000 m/t, up about 3% over 2013. Needless to say Peru and Chile are the main producers with about 62% of the fishmeal production. Fishoil production for the same areas is at 107,000 m/t up from 103,000 m/t in 2013. Peru and Chile represent over 70% of the Fishoil production.

 

 

 ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

 

 

   65 protein 

1450/1470 m/t

   65/66 protein

1500/1520 m/t

   67 protein standard steam

1540/1560 m/t

   67 protein SD 150  TVN

1560/1580 m/t

   67 protein SD 120 TVN

1580/1600 m/t

   67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1600/1620 m/t

   68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN

1620/1640 m/t

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

1950/2000

   Fish oil, crude drums

2150/2200

   Fish oil, flexi tank

2100/2150

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

2600/2800

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

Wayne Bacon

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2014 Wayne S. Bacon