Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT June 28, 2014
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SECTION 1: FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
It was another down week for corn prices but kind of a nothing week for everything else. With the US market waiting to see what the USDA has to say on acreage and stocks, it appears that no one much wanted to be out on a limb in advance of the report on Monday.
Reading corn trade report this week in advance of the USDA report, it looks like no one is expecting any major surprises from the report. Seems that the biggest concern in the market is the weather over the next few weeks and how it may affect the corn pollination in July – if it is good weather and good pollination then lower prices should be coming for corn.
Looking at the overall weather situation for corn, things look quite good for most of the corn area with some regions having too much rain and others with quite high temperatures but nothing too significant to the total corn crop.
There was increased farmer selling of corn last week, perhaps expecting lower prices after the USDA report, which did keep prices in the lower end of the price range. As is usual, there are some crop experts saying that corn prices should move up after the Monday report since they feel that demand looks likely to be higher than expected in previous forecasts.
On the soybean/soymeal side of things, the price for old crop mover higher on the week, up by USD 6 to 10m/t - while new crop was down a tad. The new crop prices were pushed a little lower by good weather and what is seen as very good growing conditions in much of the soybean area.
The trade expects that Monday's USDA report will show slightly increased soybean plantings but low soybean stocks. The concern is that with soybean prices still being quite high more farmers may have switched from corn to soybeans – come Monday all will be revealed.
Overall it is probably still the weather that will determine prices over the next few weeks and so far the weather has been just great.
As a matter of info, here are some year to date Ukraine numbers with last year to compare:
Corn exports: 2013/14 actual 18,367,000 m/t – 2012/13 12,831,000 m/t
Wheat exports: 2013/14 actual 9,164,000 m/t – 2012/13 6,829,000 m/t
Barley exports: 2013/14 actual 2,459,000 m/t – 2012/13 2,134,000 m/t
Soybean exports: 2013/14 actual 1,236,000 m/t – 2012/13 1,325,000 m/t
USA Crop condition report – June 23, 2014 – all in percentages
|
| Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good | Excellent |
| Wheat - winter | 22 | 22 | 26 | 25 | 5 |
| Wheat - spring | 1 | 3 | 25 | 60 | 11 |
| Corn | 1 | 4 | 21 | 56 | 18 |
| Soybeans | 1 | 4 | 23 | 58 | 14 |
| Sorghum | 1 | 4 | 38 | 50 | 7 |
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $15.00 |
| x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $27/28.00 |
| x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $26/27.00 |
| x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $28/29.00 |
| x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 |
| x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 |
| x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $29/30.00 |
| x |
| US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000 | $43/44.00 |
| x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax(10,000 disch) | $41/42.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax(8,000 disch) | $41/42.00 |
| x |
| US PNW Asia: 35/45,000 m/t | $34/36.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t(10,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| US PNW China: 50,000+ m/t(8,000 d1sch) | $23/24.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22.00 |
| x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23.00 |
| x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $40.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $20.00 |
| x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $25.00 |
| x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $32.00 |
| x |
| Argentina to Europe: 60,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $30/31.00 |
| x |
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 |
| x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 |
| x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $42.00 |
| x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 |
| x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $40/42.00 |
| x |
| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $30/31.00 |
| x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 |
| x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 |
| x |
| Brazil to Europe | $25.00 |
| x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $12/13.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: coaster | $28/30.00 |
| x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $38/42.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $25/27.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Baltic Dry Index | 831 | Down 73 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1773 | Down 177 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 419 | Down 42 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 678 | Down 26 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 420 | Down 39 | X |
*** see sources note
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 259/267 Jul/Oct | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 327/329 Jul/Oct | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 240/248 Jul/Aug new crop | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.0 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 240/250 July/Aug new crop | x |
| Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port | USD 249/250 July/Aug | x |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 270/285 Dec/Jan 2015 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 224/229 July/Aug new crop | x |
| Wheat Bran, Black Sea | USD 230/240 Jun/Aug | x |
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 218/220 July/Aug | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 215/220 Dec/Jan 2015 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 217/223 July/Aug new crop | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 280/285 Jul/Sep | x |
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 213>>207 July/Sep | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 226/228 July/Sep | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 207>>205 July/Sep | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 192/197 July/Sep new crop | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 203/209 Oct/Nov new crop | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 239/245 July/Aug | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 206/212 Sep/Oct new crop | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 245>>242 Aug/Sept | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 180/190 Jun/Aug | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 569>>547 Jul>>Sep | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 618>>593 Jul>>Sep | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 548>>540 Jul>>Sep | X |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 513>>470 Jul>>Sep | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 545>>535 Jul>>Sep | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 495>>475 Jul>>Sep | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 640/660 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 562>>554 Jul>>Sep | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 513>>483 Jul>>Sep | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 534>>503 Jul>>Sep | X |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD 574>>569 Jul>>Sep | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 510/520 Sep/Oct | x |
*** see sources note
Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 710/740 m/t Jul/Sep | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 170/180 m/t Jul/Sep | x |
|
|
|
|
| DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 224/227 m/t July>>Sep | x |
| DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asia | USD 300/305 m/t July>>Sep | x |
*** see sources note
It is very interesting to look back for a month or so at US corn by-product prices and what has happened to them: corn gluten meal domestic US prices have dropped USD 150 to 180 m/t, corn gluten feed prices are down by USD 35 to 40 m/t and DDGS down by USD 25 to 35 m/t --- these are all domestic prices not export prices. Actually the export price for DDGS has dropped more than the domestic price in recent weeks perhaps due to export prices having been pushed higher by strong demand and once China was out of the DDGS market the export market collapsed – talk about buying opportunities for importers.
The lower export prices have certainly increased buyer interest and we now see that in the export market prices are just a little firmer than in the domestic USA market.
There was an interesting article in the US press this week commenting on how the next major market for DDGS could easily be aquafeed. Both soymeal and corn gluten meal have progressed very well in the aquafeed market and DDGS may be able to do as well -- of course for aquafeed you don't need all the fiber present in DDGS but this too can be overcome if the price and nutritional value work.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD no prices |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD no prices |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 570/590 m/t CNF Asia USD 620/640 m/t CNF Asia USD 840/850 m/t CNF Asia USD 1030/1050 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 660/680 m/t CNF Asia USD 890/910 m/t CNF Asia USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia USD 1080/1100 m/t CNF Asia |
*** see sources note
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 510/530 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 720/740 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 660/680 m/t |
*** see sources note
Animal protein prices from Australia and New Zealand into Asia slipped a little lower this week as animal protein was fighting with vegetable protein for a share of the market. There is also the Ramadan drop in demand from Indonesia that is causing July/August supply to look a little heavier than producers would like. Demand for animal protein from China is quite good and this is helping to keep the market from moving lower.
USA domestic and export prices changed very little this week but traders expect that animal protein, especially MBM, is going to have to move lower as vegetable protein prices are much more attractive to feed producers.
This coming week is a short week in the US, with the 4th of July Independence Day holiday, so no one expects much exciting to happen to prices in a short working week. However, the trend seems to be to lower prices for animal proteins as current price levels are too high versus vegetable protein alternatives. Prices from Australia and New Zealand are expected to continue soft.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Here we are just about at the end of June and the fishing quota in Peru has just passed the 50% landed level. We now have another month to land the remaining 1.25 million m/t which one suspects will be very difficult to do. The daily catch would have to average about 40,000 m/t to reach the quota and that level certainly does not look possible – especially with the many short fishing bans and expected poor fishing weather.
It is interesting to see that the prices for the higher grades continue strong while the lower grades have dropped down by USD 20 m/t or so – with most of the current production being in the lower grades this does make sense.
New sales are slow in developing at present with many of the major buyers having covered when prices were lower and now only needing fill-in lots. For those that didn't cover, they are having to pay top of the market prices or hold off buying until stocks build a little more, in the hopes that there may be some price weakness to come. The difficulty for buyers is that, as we get into July, if fishing does not continue at a good level then the expected limited supply is going to keep prices firm and buyers will have to pay up to get some Peruvian fishmeal – the next fishing season is a long way away.
Unless there is very good fishing in the next couple of weeks, with only limited fishing bans, prices will remain firm…..which could mean prices at the current level or higher for several months. Ah well.
And then there is China, the number one fishmeal importer, which has an increase in imports of about 60% so far in 2014 – total fishmeal imports are just a little under 600,000 m/t and just under 75% of that is coming from Peru, Chile and Ecuador.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
|
|
|
| 65 protein | 1740/1750 m/t |
| 65/66 protein | 1760/1770 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 1780/1790 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1830/1850 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1850/1870 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1880/1900 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1900/1920 m/t |
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1950/2050 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2150/2250 |
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2100/2200 |
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2600/2800 |
*** see sources note
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
Wayne Bacon
*** sources for information for the Weekly Report:
US Grains Council --- www.grains.org,
International Grains Council – www.igc.int
US Wheat -- www.uswheat.org ,
France Agrimer – www.franceagrimer.fr
EU DG Agri -- ec.europa.eu/agriculture/index_fr.htm,
Commodity 3 -- http://www.commodity3.com/
Newedge Group -- www.newedge.com,
The Jacobsen Report -- https://www.thejacobsen.com
MSI Ceres Peru -- http://www.msiceres.com,
International Brokers Group S.A.C, Peru.
And many, many, many more
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2014 Wayne S. Bacon
