Saturday, August 30, 2014

Weekly Report - August 30, 2014

 

 

 

Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   August 30, 2014

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

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SECTION 1:  FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

With this weekend being a long weekend in the USA – Labor Day holiday on Monday – the week ending prices are not always a 100% true reflection of the market, this as futures traders try to be very conservative in their open positions over a three day weekend – no one likes an extra day of risk. So, Friday's closing futures prices may just be a little out of whack.

 

Again this week, we saw an overall down week for most grains and oilseeds – corn prices were down by about USD 3 m/t FOB while soybeans dropped closer to USD 7 m/t and soymeal was off by USD 3 or 4 m/t. No startling weakness in the market but certainly no strength.   

 

USA weather forecast remain quite good for the end of the crop season with some rain falling where it is needed and little or no risk of frost in any area, although temperatures are expected to move lower over the next couple of weeks.

 

The early corn harvest in the south of the USA is showing very good yields, some at record levels, and one wonders if these yields will be seen in other later harvesting corn areas. Not to ignore soybeans but the early southern harvest for beans is also showing some record levels. Crop experts are now saying that the USDA will have to increase their average yield levels in their next report and, of course, this could keep USA grain prices at their lows.

 

There was a comment in one of the trade reports that corn prices normally move lower after the USA Labor Day holiday on September 1st, one wonders how much lower prices can go in 2014.

 

Soybean export sales to China continue to chug along, with the sales to China giving the market at least a little support. Every expert that you read on soybeans seems to feel that prices are going to have to move lower, no matter the China effect, unless there is some significant bullish news out of Brazil and Argentina about their next crop. All the market news from the USA seems to be 100% bearish.    

 

USA crop condition report – Aug 26, 2014 – all in percentages

France crop condition as of August 28, 2014

 

 

Very poor

Poor

Fair

Good to

excellent

USA crop:

 

 

 

 

Wheat - spring

1

5

28

66

Corn

2

5

20

73

Soybeans

2

5

23

70

Sorghum

2

9

31

58

 

 

 

 

 

French crop:

Very poor

Poor

Fair

Good to excellent

Wheat, soft

1

7

21

70

Wheat, hard

1

8

27

64

Corn

1

3

11

85

Barley, winter

2

7

20

71

Barley, spring

2

10

26

62

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)

$15.00

Steady

X

US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)

$26/27.00

Steady

X

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)

$25/26.00

Steady

X

US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)

$32/33.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT

$26/27.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)

$30/31.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$44/45.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000

$27/28.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000

$43/44.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf Japan: Panamax(10,000 disch)

$42/43.00

steady

X

US Gulf China: Panamax(8,000 disch)

$43/44.00

Up $1.00

X

US PNW Asia: 35/45,000 m/t

$31/33.00

Steady

X

US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t(10,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Steady

X

US PNW China: 50,000+ m/t(8,000 d1sch)

$26/27.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$21/22.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$22/23.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t

$42/43.00

Up $1.00

x

France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)

$22/23.00

Up $1.00

x

France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Up $1.00

X

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000

$33/34.00

Up $1.00

x

Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t

$20/21.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)

$30/31.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$31/32.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$28/29.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Saudi Arabia

$41.00

Steady

X

Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$29/30.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t

$30/31.00

Steady

X

Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$38/40.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t

$28/29.00

Steady

x

Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Steady

x

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$24/25.00

Steady

x

Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Steady

x

Brazil to Europe

$22/23.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)

$17/18.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$21/22.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$19/20.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$14/15.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to East Med: coaster

$40/43.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t

$43/45.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)

$13/14.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k

$23/24.00

Down $2.00

x

Baltic Dry Index

1147

Up 59

x

Baltic Capesize Index

2627

Up 92

x

Baltic Panamax Index

871

Up 59

X

Baltic Supramax Index

970

Up 33

X

Baltic Handisize Index

442

Up 29

x

*** see sources note

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA

 USD 252/262 Sep/Nov

X

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein

 USD 285/299 Sep/Nov

x

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 232/238 Sep/Nov

X

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 243/249 Sep/Nov

x

   Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port

 USD 235/237 Sep/Nov

x

   Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver

 USD 255/265 Dec/Jan 2015 

x

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 190/197 Sep/Nov

x

   Wheat Bran, Black Sea

 USD 165/175 Sep/Nov

x

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 207/209 Sep/Nov

X

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

 USD 223/227 Sep/Nov

x

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 210/215 Sep/Nov

x

   Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest

 USD 265/270 Sep/Nov

x

 

 

 

   Corn, FOB NOLA USA

 USD 193/195 Sep/Nov

X

   Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 204/206 Sep/Nov

x

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

 USD 179/184 Sep/Nov

X

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 171/176 Sep/Nov

X

   Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 182/186 Oct/Nov new crop

X

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 220/228 Sep/Nov

X

   Corn, FOB Romania

 USD 190/195 Sep/Nov

x

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

 USD  220/223 Sep/Nov

x

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD  148/155 Sep/Nov

x

 

 

 

   Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 550>>475  Sep>>Nov

X

   Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 595>>525 Sep>>Nov

X

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

 USD 515>>495 Sep>>Nov

X

   Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 465>>425 Sep>>Nov

X

   Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

 USD 505>>490 Sep>>Nov

X

   Soymeal, FOB Brazil

 USD 448>>412 Sep>>Nov

X

   Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB

 USD 620/640

X

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 444>>425 Sep>>Nov

X

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 470>>440 Sep>>Nov

X

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 485>>445 Sep>>Nov

X

   Soybeans, Rotterdam

 USD 495>>475 Sep>>Nov

X

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 USD 420/440 Sep/Nov

x

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD   680/690 m/t Sep/Nov

x

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD   175/180 m/t Sep/Nov

x

   Corn Gluten Feed, France, at producer

 USD   215/220 m/t Sep/Oct

x

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD   200/210 m/t Sep/Nov

X

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia

 USD   250/254 m/t Sep/Nov

x

   DDGS corn, France, at producer

 USD   285/290 m/t Sep/Oct

X

   DDGS corn, Rotterdam

 USD   260/270 m/t Sep/Oct

X

   DDGS wheat, France, at producer

 USD   295/298 m/t Sep/Oct

x

*** see sources note

 

It was a little more difficult to get an accurate export price on DDGS this week, perhaps due to the long weekend in the USA, but probably more due to sellers trying to play the numbers close to their chest. Export business for all corn by-products seemed to be a little quiet this week.

 

Perhaps the biggest news for these products is the expected increases in container rates into Asia from the USA. According to the US Grains Council this week there will be a bump higher in November that could be followed by another increase in December. Others in the trade feel that container rates could see an overall increase of USD 10 to 15 m/t, which is quite a significant increase on low cost items like DDGS and corn gluten feed, not as serious on corn gluten meal – at least not as a percentage of total cost.

 

With everyone expecting corn prices to remain steady to lower, there seems to be little reason for these by-products to increase in price – the higher protein items like DDGS and CGM are being pressured even more by the falling prices for soymeal. So, other than freight there seems to be little reason at present to expect any higher CNF prices.

 

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein

   Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein

 USD 480/490 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 630/640 m/t CNF Asia

   Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein

 USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia

   European MBM 50 protein

   European Feathermeal, 75 protein

   European poultry meal

 USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 770/780 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 1000/1020 m/t CNF Asia

   Australian MBM 45 protein

   Australian MBM 50 protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

 USD 580/590 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 640/660 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 840/850 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 1030/1050 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein

   USA Feathermeal, 80 protein

   USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

 USD 620/640 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 880/890 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 780/790 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 950/1000 m/t CNF Asia

*** see sources note

 

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

   Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein

 USD 490/520 m/t   

   Feathermeal  80 protein USA

 USD 720/740 m/t         

   Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA

 USD 660/680 m/t  

*** see sources note

 

 

Meat and bone meal prices look to be tending lower from most origins this week as vegetable protein prices move lower and put additional price pressure on animal proteins. However, while MBM may be weaker, both feathermeal and poultry meal (even pet food grade) have kept their price levels better than MBM, but experts say that a drop in both feather meal and poultry meal will be coming too.

 

USA domestic prices were lower this week, as were Australian and New Zealand prices, but there was really not too much weakness as yet in the export price levels as producers try to keep prices up but this won't last long.

 

According to one trade report the CNF prices in Asia for MBM have dropped by about USD 40 m/t in the past month or so and MBM is getting down to its low for 2014.

 

There certainly does not appear to be any reason at present for animal protein prices to move higher but a change in demand, as quite often happens with feathermeal, can quickly change the situation.

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

It is very quiet in the fishmeal business in Peru. The stocks of fishmeal remain quite good, except Prime and Super Prime but buyers don't seem to be in much of a hurry to cover future needs. While there has been no official drop in prices, the market says that sellers will probably look at bid at USD 30 m/t below the current price levels – anything to get a little volume going. If some decent business does not appear then the "official" trade prices will be slipping lower, at least the lower grades.

 

Looking at the China import numbers this week it looks like Peru currently has just over 55% of the China fishmeal business with the balance of the business shared between 17 origins with Chile being the next largest after Peru but with only 9.5% or so of the business. China's fishmeal imports in 2014 are up by about 45% so far in 2014, at about 725,000 m/t to July, but shipments are expected to slack of somewhat for the balance of the year as the total fishmeal imports are expected to be around 1.1 million m/t. So that would be just under 400,000 m/t for the remaining 5 months, a good chunk of which should come from Peru.

 

The number one topic of conversation in the Peru fishmeal business seems to be the size of the next quota – with a very wide range of estimates. Of course, estimates mean very little since no one really knows what the government intends. The most popular number for the next fishing quota seems to be at the 2 million m/t level. So, now we just wait and see and we wait and hope for some fishmeal buying to appear.  

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Herring fishmeal

72 protein

1,945

Danish fishmeal

64 protein

1,738

Peru fishmeal

64 protein

1,775

Chile fishmeal

65 protein

1,815

Iceland fishmeal

70 protein

1,945

@Commodity3

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

 

 

   65 protein 

1720/1730 m/t

   65/66 protein

1750/1760 m/t

   67 protein standard steam

1800/1820 m/t

   67 protein SD 150  TVN

1820/1840 m/t

   67 protein SD 120 TVN

1840/1860 m/t

   67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1860/1880 m/t

   68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN

1880/1900 m/t

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

1900/2000

   Fish oil, crude drums

2100/2200

   Fish oil, flexi tank

2050/2150

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

2500/2700

*** see sources note

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

*** sources for information for the Weekly Report:

US Grains Council  --- www.grains.org, International Grains Council – www.igc.int

US Wheat -- www.uswheat.org , France Agrimer – www.franceagrimer.fr

EU DG Agri -- ec.europa.eu/agriculture/index_fr.htm,  Commodity 3 -- http://www.commodity3.com/

Newedge Group -- www.newedge.com, The Jacobsen Report -- https://www.thejacobsen.com

MSI Ceres Peru -- http://www.msiceres.com, International Brokers Group S.A.C, Peru.

 

And many, many, many more

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2014 Wayne S. Bacon