Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT September 28, 2014
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
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Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
It seems that week, after week, after week, I have been saying that prices are lower again and this situation exists again this week as soymeal was down by close to USD 15 m/t, soybeans down by USD 17 m/t and corn down but not as much at only USD 3 to 4 m/t. And the reason, well it is of course: harvest, harvest, harvest. When one is looking at a gigantic harvest of soybean and corn it is next to impossible to expect prices to move higher and if they do it is just a short term rally. One trade report pointed out this week that corn prices have now moved lower every week for six weeks.
The USDA will be publishing their Grain Stocks report early next week but this is not expected to have any significant effect on market prices as on the 10th the latest USDA WASDE report will be published and everyone will wait to see what it has to say.
The world situation this year is that everyone who grow any grains or oilseeds seems to be having a great crop year. And with full grain hoppers all over the world it is tough to expect higher prices, at least until the US harvest is done and we get to see exactly how big the crops really are.
As has been pointed out by many grain experts, corn today in the US is selling below the cost of production and farmers must be very tempted to hold on to as much of the corn as possible in order to minimize losses or at least in the hopes of higher price come Nov/Dec. However, grain experts are still saying the for corn prices seem to have room to move another USD 15 m/t lower with soybeans possible dropping another USD 15 to 18 m/t.
You would have to dig through a great many trade reports to come up with an expert who expects corn and soybean prices to move higher in the next few weeks. Perhaps only a very serious weather event in the USA that brought the harvest to a halt could rally prices but bad weather does not look to be in the forecast at present. So, lower and lower we go.
USA crop condition report – September 22, 2014 – all in percentages
France crop condition as of September 22, 2014
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| Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good to excellent | Harvested % |
| USA crop: |
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| Corn | 2 | 5 | 19 | 74 | 4 |
| Soybeans | 2 | 5 | 22 | 71 | 3 |
| Sorghum | 3 | 9 | 31 | 57 | 33 |
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| French crop: | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good to excellent |
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| Corn | 0 | 3 | 11 | 86 | 1 |
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000 | $48/49.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax(10,000 disch) | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax(8,000 disch) | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Asia: 35/45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t(10,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW China: 50,000+ m/t(8,000 d1sch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $39/40.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $19/21.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: coaster | $42/44.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $43/45.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Baltic Dry Index | 1049 | Down 27 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1852 | Down 260 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 807 | Down 7 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 1053 | Up 24 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 526 | Up 28 | x |
*** see sources note
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 229/235 Oct/Dec | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 274/277 Oct/Dec | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 224/228 Oct/Dec | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 237/240 Oct/Dec | x |
| Wheat, Romania | USD 233/237 Oct/Dec | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen | USD 201/204 Oct/Dec | X |
| Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen | USD 191/194 Oct/Dec | x |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 235/245 Dec/Jan 2015 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 187/192 Oct/Dec | x |
| Wheat Bran, Black Sea | USD 150/160 Oct/Dec | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 184/188 Oct/Dec | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 205/213 Oct/Dec | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 210/214 Oct/Dec | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 250/255 Oct/Dec | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 173/175 Oct/Dec | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 185/187 Oct/Dec | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 160/165 Oct/Dec | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 155/160 Oct/Dec | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 163/166 Oct/Dec | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 169/173 Oct/Dec | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 168/172 Oct/Dec | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 223/226 Oct/Dec | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 135/145 Oct/Dec | x |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 457>>445 Oct>>Dec | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 475>>460 Oct>>Dec | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 455>>440 Oct>>Dec | X |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 380/410 Oct/Dec | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 445>>435 Oct>>Dec | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 375/425 Oct/Dec | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 600/610 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 395/410 Oct>>Dec | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 412>>404 Oct>>Dec | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 415>>405 Oct>>Dec | x |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD 437>>425 Oct>>Dec | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 375/385 Oct/Dec | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 700/710 m/t Oct/Dec | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 180/185 m/t Oct/Dec | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 182/185 m/t Oct/Dec | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 224/227 m/t Oct/Dec | x |
*** see sources note
DDGS prices in the domestic market in the USA were down by about USD 10 m/t this week but this did not move into the export market as the transportation difficulties in the USA pushed the interior transport costs higher which kept the FOB port prices from dropping.
While prices for DDGS, CGM and CGF should all be moving lower, the difficulty in finding space to move the material to an export facility will continue to keep the export prices firmer than domestic prices.
There does seem to be good export buying interest at present but buyers are bidding well below current market levels in anticipation of the harvest pressure on corn prices. Only corn gluten meal will probably be able to buck the trend to lower prices as high protein products, like CGM, fishmeal and to a degree feathermeal, are better able to hold their price level while corn is dropping.
Until we get through the harvest and see how massive the crops are the trend should continue to be to lower price levels and once the domestic transport situation improves there should be some room for lower export FOB prices.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein | USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 630/640 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia |
| European MBM 45 protein European MBM 50 protein European Feathermeal, 75 protein European poultry meal | USD 360/370 m/t CNF Asia USD 400/415 m/t CNF Asia USD 740/750 m/t CNF Asia USD 900/920 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 590/610 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia USD 1000/1020 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 570/590 m/t CNF Asia USD 870/880 m/t CNF Asia USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia USD 930/980 m/t CNF Asia |
*** see sources note
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 430/440 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 710/740 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 650/670 m/t |
*** see sources note
Animal protein prices in the USA did move a little lower this week but good buying from the pet food industry probably stopped them from moving lower. Depending on which report you read prices for most animal proteins were down by USD 10 to 20 m/t. Of course with soymeal down by about USD 15 m/t a drop in animal proteins is no surprise. One major US trade report said this week that MBM prices could move another USD 50 m/t lower once the new crop soybeans start to be crushed.
With all this expected weakness in the market, export buyers are bidding well below where exporters want to be selling which has resulted in a drop in export business --- not just from the USA but also from Australia. Animal protein exporters in South America continue to find it very difficult to sell product into Asia as European CNF price are just too low for Argentina/Paraguay to match.
Looking at prices for the next while, we should probably see lower price levels as the USA harvest chugs along and vegetable protein gets lower and lower priced.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Business is still quiet in Peru and all prices, except the Prime and Super Prime, are showing as weaker by USD 20 m/t or so. Of course when there is almost no business it is not surprising that prices would drift a little lower. According to trade estimates the fishmeal stocks in Peru are just under 110,000 m/t with the largest chunk of this being in lower spec fishmeal.
Some trade experts are saying that now is the time to buy Peru fishmeal as the further we move along and the smaller the stocks become then the higher the prices will move. Also, China is an unknown factor. China will be off shortly for a one week holiday but they could be back in the buying mood after they return and with little stock left it won't take much China buying to use it all up.
Most of the talk in Peru is still about where the next fishing quota will be set with the trade seeming to feel that it will be around 1.0 million m/t, perhaps as high as 1.2 million but no one is really looking at any higher levels.
As can be seen by the price level indications below almost all prices were lower on the week and, as with Peru prices, much of this is demand related. There doesn't seem to be too much fishmeal demand anywhere at present.
According to the MSI Ceres report this week, Peru shipments to China for August and September were quite low and there is a good possibility that Peru may not hit the forecasted level of exports to China in 2014: just over 1 million m/t. Up to the end of August, China represented 55% of Peruvian fishmeal export, so any shortfall in shipments to China is very important to producers/traders.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,870 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,670 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,700 |
| Chile fishmeal | 65 protein | 1,735 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,895 |
@Commodity3
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
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| 65 protein | 1710/1720 m/t |
| 65/66 protein | 1720/1730 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 1740/1750 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1760/1770 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1780/1790 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1800/1810 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1850/1860 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1850/1950 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2050/2150 |
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2000/2100 |
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2500/2700 |
*** see sources note
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
*** sources for information for the Weekly Report:
US Grains Council --- www.grains.org, International Grains Council – www.igc.int
US Wheat -- www.uswheat.org , France Agrimer – www.franceagrimer.fr
EU DG Agri -- ec.europa.eu/agriculture/index_fr.htm, Commodity 3 -- http://www.commodity3.com/
Newedge Group -- www.newedge.com, The Jacobsen Report -- https://www.thejacobsen.com
MSI Ceres Peru -- http://www.msiceres.com, International Brokers Group S.A.C, Peru.
And many, many, many more
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2014 Wayne S. Bacon
