Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT October 26, 2014
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
So far this week I have been in Germany, Seattle, Chicago, Decatur and today New York and I almost decided not to do my report this week – but I relented, gave myself a kick and here is the report.
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
It was another up week in grain and oilseed prices this week, except for US hard red winter wheat which was lower on the week. There was very little change in corn prices which were up by USD 2 to 5 m/t depending on who was quoting the prices. Soybeans were stronger with quoted prices up by USD 8 to 11 m/t, matching about what the futures had done for the week. Soymeal was up the strongest of all with sellers looking for at least an additional USD 20 m/t for shipments over the next couple of months.
Although there has been very good demand for soybeans and soymeal, much of the recent futures market rally was prompted by funds and such covering their position which automatically pushes things higher and then there was quite a bit of new futures buying brought on by the somewhat unexpected rallying.
For the cash and Fob sellers is was manna from heaven as they had an extra few dollars a m/t, at least for a couple of days. As the futures market closed on Friday prices were moving lower and the general feeling in the market reports is that next week will probably see further weakness in soybeans and soymeal USA and export prices. It is next to impossible to keep prices high, even with record exports, when the 2014 harvest looks to be fantastic.
The corn harvest is running a tad behind normal but as I was running around Illinois this week it certainly looked like the farmers were out there harvesting like mad. One thing about the American farmer is that while he can fall a few days behind in harvesting he seems to be able to catch up very, very quickly. Give a farmer a couple of good harvest days and lickity-split (a US term for "very quickly") he is done.
Most experts seem to feel that corn prices don't have a great deal of reason to move lower but on the other hand there is little reason to move higher. As mentioned last week, it will probably take some interesting South American weather reports to get the corn market excited and moving prices strongly in any one direction.
USA crop condition report – October 19, 2014 – all in percentages
France crop condition as of October 23, 2014
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| Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good to excellent | Harvested % |
| USA crop: |
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| Corn | 2 | 5 | 19 | 74 | 38 |
| Soybeans | 1 | 5 | 21 | 73 | 61 |
| Sorghum | 3 | 9 | 31 | 57 | 53 |
| Spring Wheat |
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| 100 |
| Winter Wheat |
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| Planted 77% |
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| French crop: | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good to excellent |
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| Corn | 0 | 2 | 10 | 88 | 38 |
| Wheat - soft |
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| Planted 51% |
| Wheat – hard |
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| Planted 80% |
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
The rally in Baltic Indexes for Capesize and Panamax is due to sudden increased demand for iron ore by China. Even with their economy seeming to be slowing their ore imports are at record levels. The smaller supermax and handi sized vessels are not doing as well due to lack of new export grain business for this size vessel. Demand for smaller vessels will pick up as the logistics at US grain export ports improve.
Because the freight prices in the table below are based on actual shipments, they may not change as much as the Baltic numbers would suggest that they should.
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $19.50 | Up $0.50 | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000 | $48/49.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax(10,000 disch) | $45/46.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax(8,000 disch) | $44/45.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US PNW Asia: 35/45,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t(10,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW China: 50,000+ m/t(8,000 d1sch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $33/34.00 | New | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $49/50.00 | New | x |
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $41.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $39/40.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: coaster | $42/44.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $43/45.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Baltic Dry Index | 1192 | Up 248 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2422 | Up 1060 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1121 | Up 155 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 900 | Down 23 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 489 | Down 12 | x |
*** see sources note
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 242/247 Oct/Dec | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 288/292 Oct/Dec | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 230/235 Oct/Dec | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 240/247 Oct/Dec | x |
| Wheat, Romania | USD 250/255 Oct/Dec | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen | USD 225/227 Oct/Dec | X |
| Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen | USD 220/222 Oct/Dec | x |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 240/250 Dec/Jan 2015 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 193/200 Oct/Dec | x |
| Wheat Bran, Black Sea | USD 165/175 Oct/Dec | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 207/209 Oct/Dec | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 188/200 Oct/Dec | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 208/210 Oct/Dec | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 270/275 Oct/Dec | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 184>>179 Oct>>Dec | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 202>>199 Oct>>Dec | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 170/174 Oct/Dec | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 168/172 Oct/Dec | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 173/178 Oct/Dec | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 182/190 Oct/Dec | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 177/180 Oct/Dec | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 241>>233 Oct>>Dec | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 146/152 Oct/Dec | x |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 472>>463 Oct>>Dec | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 485>>477 Oct>>Dec | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 479/484 | X |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 430/445 Oct/Dec | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 472/475 | X |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 422/441 Oct/Dec | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 600/610 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 417/427 Oct/Dec | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 395>>385 Oct>>Dec | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 450>>440 Oct>>Dec | x |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD 455>>442 Oct>>Dec | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 390/405 Oct/Dec | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 680/690 m/t Oct/Dec | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 161/165 m/t Oct/Dec | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 185/188 m/t Oct/Dec | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 218/223 m/t Oct/Dec | x |
*** see sources note
DDGS prices were quite interesting this week. Depending on who you talked to the prices were up or down or steady with quite a wide range being seen in the market – as much as USD 10 to 12 m/t. However, the majority of the sellers did seem to be able to accept lower bids from buyers.
With the slightly lower production levels of ethanol there is a little less DDGS going into storage all over the USA so we could see prices get a little firmer as excess supplies are eaten up.
If one was to believe all the buyers at the Export Exchange in Seattle this week then their pent up demand would keep prices moving higher but then buyers are always telling sellers big stories about how much they plan to buy.
Demand for corn gluten meal should remain quite strong due to the shortages of fishmeal and with corn gluten meal being about the best protein alternative to fishmeal in many aquafeed uses then demand is expected to remain strong. CGM is also a major ingredient in pet food all over the world so feed buyer have to fight the very deep pocketed pet food folks for their CGM supplies.
And as to corn gluten feed, there doesn't ever seem to be much to say about CGF, it just moves along here following corn prices up and down with little or no major news on a weekly basis.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein | USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 630/640 m/t CNF Asia |
| X X |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia |
| X |
| European MBM 45 protein European MBM 50 protein European Feathermeal, 75 protein European poultry meal | USD 360/370 m/t CNF Asia USD 400/415 m/t CNF Asia USD 740/750 m/t CNF Asia USD 900/920 m/t CNF Asia |
| X X X x |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 520/530 m/t CNF Asia USD 570/590 m/t CNF Asia USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia USD 1000/1020 m/t CNF Asia |
| X X X x |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 500/525 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia USD 630/650 m/t CNF Asia USD 940/980 m/t CNF Asia |
| X X X x |
*** see sources note
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 420/430 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 710/740 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 550/570 m/t |
*** see sources note
Animal protein prices have not changed much at all the week. The rally in soymeal prices has improved the MBM/Soymeal ratio which is making MBM more attractive at current levels than it has been so there seems to be no reason for the price to move lower this week – especially as fishmeal prices rocket higher.
In the US the prices of both feathermeal and poultry meal were a little weaker which also brought the export prices a little lower but most experts are saying that the seemingly weaker prices are probably only a short term thing but there are some trade report that say export buyer bids are well below current market price levels. However, just because a buyer wants a lower price doesn't mean that it will happen.
Domestic USA animal protein usage is not affected much by fishmeal prices but export prices certainly are so we can see domestic prices slip a little lower while export demand keeps those prices firm.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishmeal prices continue their moves higher in both Peru and much of the rest of the world as every producers tries to follow Peruvian prices higher. It is just a simple case of supply and demand. With Peru having little or nothing left to sell the buyers are scouring the world for available supplies and even though current demand is not excessive the world supply of fishmeal is limited for now.
There is still a great deal of talk in Peru that there may not be a Nov/Jan fishing quota set but no one knows for sure what the government will do. The biomass inspections are an ongoing thing with at least two more voyages expected to study the condition but they are only expected not confirmed.
According to some reports, the prices seen out of Peru are actually USD 20 to 50 m/t higher than those that I am showing below but, with almost nothing left to sell, these prices should not be a surprise to anyone.
All the big guns in the fishmeal business will be meeting in Vancouver this week and I am sure that there will be some very interesting discussions in the hallways. I would love to be there to hear all the comments but, since I have now been travelling for 10 days, it seems about time for me to head home.
If there are any amazing new developments out of the IFFO meeting in Vancouver, I will try to report on them next week.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,975 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,720 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,945 |
| Chile fishmeal | 65 protein | 1,990 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,950 |
@Commodity3
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
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| 65 protein | 1950/1960 m/t |
| 65/66 protein | 1960/1970 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 1970/1980 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1980/1990 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1990/2000 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2030/2040 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 2080/2100 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1950/2000 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2150/2200 |
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2100/2150 |
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2600/2700 |
*** see sources note
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
*** sources for information for the Weekly Report:
US Grains Council --- www.grains.org, International Grains Council – www.igc.int
US Wheat -- www.uswheat.org , France Agrimer – www.franceagrimer.fr
EU DG Agri -- ec.europa.eu/agriculture/index_fr.htm, Commodity 3 -- http://www.commodity3.com/
Newedge Group -- www.newedge.com, The Jacobsen Report -- https://www.thejacobsen.com
MSI Ceres Peru -- http://www.msiceres.com, International Brokers Group S.A.C, Peru.
And many, many, many more
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2014 Wayne S. Bacon
