Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT May 30, 2015
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Corn and soybeans/soymeal didn't have too bad a week this week while all types of wheat were being pushed lower and lower. It was a shortened 4 day work week this week so that could have made the market a little calmer than usual.
Early in the week it looked like corn prices could slide quite a bit lower but it seems that a USD 3 or 4 m/t drop in cash prices was enough to get buyers very interested in booking some corn. On the export side of things for corn there was really very little change in prices – while the futures prices had dropped a little there were some delays in getting grains to export ports which pushed the export prices up just a little.
Much of the talk about corn in the US this week had to do with ethanol production and the feeling that the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) biofuel announcement in early June could be quite bearish for corn prices – but this is just speculation at present.
For now corn prices look to be in a trading range – perhaps up or down USD 5 to 10 m/t until something exciting happens to the corn market.
For soybeans/soymeal the old crop prices were a little higher on the week but not so much in the new crop. This is quite a normal pattern as the run down in old crop stocks does tend to push soybeans higher (last year it was much higher for old crop as physical stocks were very low).
The latest biodiesel rulings in the US were quite bullish for soyoil which tended to pull soybean prices higher and then soymeal just followed along but the world seems to have a very large supply of soybeans this year so it may not be too likely that prices will race higher.
The workers strike at soybean crushing plants in Argentina, that was really of little actual effect, looks to be about over, so that market should be back to normal.
For the next while the US market prices will probably be driven by what is happening in the US weather as that seems to be the major variable for now. We know that there is going to be some bad weather and a rally in prices one of these days but the feeling with soybeans is that higher prices will be difficult to achieve without a major change in market fundamentals.
Wheat prices in the US export and domestic market were down by about USD 15 m/t this week as the US weather improved and the recent rally in prices backed off. The world prices for wheat were also quite soft as Egypt got a bargain in their tender and everyone looks to be producing record levels of wheat. However, there was a little increase in the FOB USGulf price levels for wheat as there were some delays in getting wheat to port due to some rail logistics problems.
USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – May 25, 2015
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| Planted May 25 2015 | Planted 2010-2014 Average |
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| Corn | 92% | 88% |
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| Sorghum | 41% | 46% |
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| Spring Wheat | 96% | 79% |
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| Barley | 100% | 90% |
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| Soybeans | 61% | 55% |
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| Crop condition | Excellent % | Good % | Fair % | Poor % | Very Poor % | |
| Winter wheat | 8 | 37 | 36 | 13 | 6 | |
| Spring wheat | 8 | 61 | 27 | 3 | 1 | |
| Barley | 13 | 61 | 24 | 2 |
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| Corn | 12 | 62 | 23 | 3 |
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@USDA
France AgriMer – crop condition report – May 25, 2015
| Winter crops | Very Good % | Good % | Average % | Bad % | Very Bad % | |
| Soft wheat | 36 | 55 | 8 | 1 |
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| Hard wheat | 23 | 64 | 12 | 1 |
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| Barley | 34 | 55 | 10 | 1 |
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| Barley spring | 26 | 67 | 7 |
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| Corn | 13 | 75 | 10 | 1 |
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| Spring crops | Planted May 25 2015 | Planted May 25 2014 |
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| Barley | 100% | 100% |
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| Corn | 100% | 98% |
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@France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $20/21.00 | steady | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $40/41.00 | steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $49/50.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $34/35.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $50/51.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-50,000 m/t | $8.50/9.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-50,000 m/t | $9.00/9.50 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-50,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $9/10.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 589 | Down 7 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 810 | Down 6 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 524 | Down 25 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 647 | Up 20 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 331 | Up 4 | x |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 865 | Down 18 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2015/August 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 206/209 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 229/234 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 181/185 July/Aug | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 183/188 July/Aug | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 192/197 | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen | USD 186/189 | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen | USD 181/184 | x |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 220/225 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 174/178 | x |
| Wheat Bran, Black Sea | USD no prices |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 184/187 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 180/187 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 175/180 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 235/240 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 166/169 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 175/178 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 169/174 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 167/172 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 164/171 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 160/167 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 169/172 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 248>>>235 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 170/175 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 389/393 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD no prices | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 383/390 | x |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 344/348 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 370/377 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 334/339 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ | USD 560/570 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 375/385 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 350/355 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 360/370 | x |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD 395/400 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 415/425 | z |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 683/688 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 141/145 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 239>>229 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 296>>287 m/t | x |
DDGS prices in the US were down quite a bit this week with most domestic prices off by as much as USD 10 m/t. Export prices for nearby DDGS shipments were not off much due to full order books but export prices out a couple of months were down by USD 10 m/t. There seems to be a decent lineup of export buyers just waiting to cover at the bottom of the market – so prices may take a little jump higher if the all decide that we have hit the bottom.
Corn gluten meal export prices were steady on the week as corn had not softened too much and there is very good export demand for CGM with export shippers booked up tight for the next few weeks. Export CGM price don't seem to want to slip lower as demand is good in both the export and domestic market. In the US domestic market for CGM there was really no price weakness.
With corn gluten feed the average domestic price was a little higher, perhaps as much as USD 5 m/t, but there was no change seen so far in the export prices for CGF.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein | USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/610 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 535/555 m/t CNF Asia USD 630/650 m/t CNF Asia USD 850/870 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 520/530 m/t CNF Asia USD 590/610 m/t CNF Asia USD 570/590 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia |
Animal protein prices into major export market (mainly Asia) were all a little softer this week with meat and bone meal prices off by USD 10 or so from most origins. Much of the downward pressure is coming from the continued drop in vegetable protein prices and further weakness in fishmeal prices.
US feathermeal prices into Asia are slipping lower quite quickly following the drop in domestic prices with trade reports saying that feathermeal has dropped by about 20% in the past few weeks. Of course MBM [prices have also slid much lower in recent weeks but with the lower soymeal prices this is not too surprising.
The trade reports out of the US are saying that weakness is expected to continue in export animal protein prices as, for now, there seems to be little or no reason for prices to move higher.
According to trade reports, the OZ dollar has been quite weak versus the US dollar and has fallen by about 5% in value which makes OZ exports all that more attractive to buyers. New Zealand has also see their currency weaken against the dollar.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in the North of Peru is really racing along this week with daily landings of about 40,000+ m/t. The total catch up to the 28th was at 2.133 million m/t against the quota of 2.580 million m/t, so there is only about 446,000 m/t to go. The amount left to catch is still about 17% of the quota but there seems to be lots of time left to land the full quota. In the south the catch is now up to 96,000 m/t out of a total quota of 375,000 m/t, so the situation is better in the south than in previous weeks. Both quotas run until July 31 with the north looking to be filled but perhaps not in the south.
It is reported in Peru that producers are now getting a tad more flexible on their export prices and that more interest from China seems to be coming to the market with business booked to China now starting to build. The demand from China has been slow in coming due partly to good stocks in China but mainly to the late demand for fishmeal in the domestic China market – bad weather has delayed the shrimp farming season and held back demand for fishmeal.
As you can see by the prices below, European fishmeal continues to be much less expensive than Peru or Chile so there is very little interest in Peru from the major European buyers. We are probably going to have to see another USD 100 m/t come off South American prices in order to get much buying interest from Europe.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,560 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,555 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,650 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67 protein | 1,710 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,530 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65 protein | 1450/1500 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1500/1550 m/t |
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| 67 protein standard steam | 1550/1600 m/t | 1550/1600 |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1600/1650 m/t | 1600/1650 |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1700/1750 m/t | 1700/1750 |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1750/1800 m/t | 1750/1800 |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1800/1850 m/t | 1820/1850 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2200/2250 | 1900/2000 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2300/2350 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2250/2300 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2700/2750 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
