Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT September 27, 2015
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Most grain prices moved higher this week: corn up by USD 4 to 5 m/t, soybeans up by USD 7 to 9 m/t, US SRW wheat up USD 7 to 8 m/t, US HRW wheat up by USD 6 to 7 m/t --- only soymeal prices didn't change much.
It seems that most of the grains were a little tired of falling prices so it was about time for a little rally in prices and it really was just a little rally. These days a change of USD 5 to 10 m/t on a week seems like a very small change – this compared with the volatility of weeks past.
Looking at corn prices, for most of the world – except parts of Africa for white maize – there seems to be more than enough yellow corn for everyone. The USA harvest is rushing along and this should keep prices from rallying in the short term but the feeling is that, while September will be all low prices, October/November will probably move to higher price levels. According to some trade reports, USA farmers are holding on to much of the corn crop as they do not like the low prices seen today. Slow selling by the farmers can lead to higher prices in coming weeks.
The weather for the US corn harvest still looks great so those combines will be out there running up and down the fields and the near record crop will be building – probably not much of a reason to expect higher prices in the short term. However, once the corn harvest is over we could/should see corn prices move higher.
Soybeans were higher on the week, this due mainly to the China/USA agreement on record soybean sales. While the harvest is charging along and prices should probably be a little weaker the news of confirmation of a massive sale to China certainly stops any price weakness developing this week.
As with corn, the soybean harvest should see dry weather in much of the US, so should race ahead this week. Also as corm, the US farmers don't seem to want to sell new crop soybeans so are holding on to stocks waiting for higher prices.
USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – September 21, 2015
| Crop condition | Excellent % | Good % | Fair % | Poor % | Very Poor % | |
| Corn | 19 | 49 | 22 | 7 | 3 | |
| Sorghum | 12 | 54 | 26 | 6 | 2 | |
| Soybeans | 15 | 46 | 27 | 9 | 3 | |
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| Harvested: | 2015 | 2014 | 5 year avge |
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| Corn | 10 | 7 | 15 |
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| Soybeans | 7 | 3 | 7 |
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| Sorghum | 26 | 30 | 28 |
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@USDA
France AgriMer – crop condition report – September 21, 2015
| Spring crops | Very Good % | Good % | Average % | Bad % | Very Bad % | |
| Corn | 10 | 46 | 24 | 15 | 5 | |
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| Harvested: | 2015 | 2014 |
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| Corn | 91% | 80% |
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@France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $14/14.50 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf South Africa | $34/35.00 | New | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $53/54.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $39/40.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $53/54.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $35/36.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $16/17.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-50,000 m/t | $7.50/8.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-50,000 m/t | $8.00/8.50 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-50,000 m/t | $14/15.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 943 | Down 17 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2024 | Up 29 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 744 | Down 9 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 733 | Down 29 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 408 | Down 18 | x |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 618 | Down 2 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR September 2015/December 2015
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 221/228 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 230/233 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 175/178 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 184/188 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 184/187 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 182/184 | x |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 180/182 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 220/225 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 165/171 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 173/175 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 166/173 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 178/181 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 225/230 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 173/177 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 188/191 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 160/166 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 161/168 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 166/169 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 177/180 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 172/175 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas or NOLA | USD 199/202 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 145/150 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 347/353 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 397/403 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 376/382 | x |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 343/349 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 365/372 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 336/342 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ | USD 540/545 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 382/387 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 360/365 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 364/370 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 360/366 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 630/640 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 155/160 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 181/184 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 235/238 m/t | x |
Both domestic and export prices for all corn by-product moved lower this week as the corn harvest raced ahead and building supplies of corn pushed by-products down to seasonal low price levels. This is not at all surprising as harvest pressure normally results in the low prices of the year.
The US Grains Council's (USGC) weekly report mentions that some CNF prices for DDGS were down as much as USD 20 m/t this week into Asia. A good chunk of this price drop is due to falling container freight rates. The USGC also says that export demand has fallen of considerably in the past couple of weeks --- perhaps as buyers wait to see just how far down prices can go as the harvest builds.
Corn gluten meal is at the lowest price level that has been seen for a few months but while the price is quite low for Sep/Oct it jumps up by USD 20 to 30 m/t as you get into Nov/Dec shipment positions.
There is portably not too much chance of the export prices moving higher in the next couple of weeks but a sudden jump in export demand could change all that. Turkey is reported to have bought quite a bit of DDGS – even with GM problems – and China could certainly jump in as a big buyer.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 480/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 510/530 m/t CNF Asia USD 640/650 m/t CNF Asia USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 470/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 620/640 m/t CNF Asia USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia |
Animal protein prices into the major markets in Asia all seemed to slip a little lower this week with most of the reason for the weakness said to be due to a lack of buyers in the market. The Asian animal feed business is a little slow at present and this has caused the demand for feed items to slack off a little. One of the major USA reports was saying that there is also a very good supply of alternative ingredients to MBM which is causing MBM prices in Asia to slide lower. There was some comment this week that animal protein supplies from both Australia and New Zealand are getting a little tighter so there could be some attempt by exporters to move prices higher.
In the USA domestic market, MBM prices were lower on the week but feathermeal and poultry meal prices were unchanged. There are some comments that poultry meal prices could move lower as there has been a drop in the export of some poultry cuts which may increase the rendering and put more poultry meal into the market.
Also, with the soybean harvest just starting to roll along there will be pressure on soymeal prices and this will spread to pressure on animal proteins – lower prices seem to be what is expected.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
There is very little to be said about fishmeal this week, as most of the important people in the business are on their way to Germany for next week's IFFO meetings. Not too much happens just prior to major meetings, as both buyers and sellers expect important things to happen when all the top industry people get together. We need to wait a week and see if anything exciting does happen.
Peru and Chile fishmeal and fishoil exports – by destination – January to July 2015 – in m/t
– major destinations only
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| Peru Fishmeal | Chile Fishmeal | Peru Fishoil | Chile Fishoil |
| Canada |
| 8,000 | 7,000 |
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| China | 301,000 | 30,000 | 4,000 |
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| Chile | 14,000 |
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| Denmark |
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| 17,000 | 4,000 |
| Japan | 12,000 | 8,000 |
| 2,000 |
| South Korea |
| 11,000 |
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| Taiwan | 12,000 |
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| Vietnam | 5,000 |
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| Ecuador | 5,000 |
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| USA |
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| Total All | 363,000 | 71,000 | 53,000 | 8,000 |
@Andes Connections
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,610 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,465 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,550 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67 protein | 1,650 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,625 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65 protein | 1370/1390 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1410/1430 m/t |
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| 67 protein standard steam | 1450/1460 m/t |
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| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1480/1500 m/t | 1480/1500 |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1580/1600 m/t | 1580/1600 |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1630/1650 m/t | 1630/1650 |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1680/1700 m/t | 1650/1670 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2050 | 1700/1800 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2100/2150 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2150/2200 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2400/2450 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
