Saturday, November 28, 2015

Weekly report -- Nov 28, 2015

 
HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

  As you will see mentioned a couple of times further down in this week's report, the USA was celebrating Thanksgiving on Thursday and many businesses were closed both Thursday and Friday which means that grain trading at the end of the week is not always the best judge of what is happening in the markets.

 

Also, due to the holidays, there has been quite a drop in grain reports – neither the US Grains Council nor US Wheat issued their reports this week -- but then I guess that they are allowed holidays too.

 

Corn prices did not change at all on the week or at least not much as both futures and cash prices were reasonably steady on the week. The FOB NOLA price for corn weakened a little but not enough to create any change in corn prices. USA corn exports for the week were very good but this did not cause any change in the quiet market.

 

Weather remains good in South America so other that some increased export sales there doesn't seem to be much in the way of news that will push corn prices higher.

 

Soybeans were down on the week, dropping about USD 5 m/t. The soybean market still seems to be dependent on every scrap of news from China – not too surprising due to their share of the soybean market.

 

There is a little concern building that there may be too much rain in Brazil which has delayed soybean plantings a little but all seems to be good in Argentina where planting is progressing and rainfall seems to be exactly what is needed.

 

For the next few weeks/months, Argentina and Brazil are going to be the regions that set the soybean prices trends and as the weather reports go from good to bad and back again then we should see quite a bit of volatility in soybean prices. But, without a major bit of bad news regarding South American crops, it is difficult to see higher prices for soybeans.  

 

 

USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – November 25, 2015

 

Crop condition

Excellent %

Good %

Fair %

Poor %

Very Poor %

 

 

 

 

 

 

Winter wheat

11

41

38

8

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

Harvested:

2015 %

2014 %

5 year avge %

 

 

Corn

96

88

94

 

 

Soybeans

95

89

93

 

 

Sorghum

94

87

93

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Planted

 

 

 

 

 

Winter wheat

96

99

100

 

 

@USDA

 

France AgriMer – crop condition report – November 24, 2015

 

Winter crops

Very Good %

Good %

Average %

Bad %

Very Bad %

Barley

35

62

3

 

 

Wheat - soft

35

63

2

 

 

Durum

20

77

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Planted

2015

2014

 

 

 

Winter wheat

99%

97%

 

 

 

Durum

96%

87%

 

 

 

Winter barley

100%

99%

 

 

 

@France AgriMer

  

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)

$14/14.50

Steady

X

US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)

$21/22.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT

$21/22.00

Steady

x

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)

$20/21.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000

$22/23.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)

$29/30.00

Down $1.00

x

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$46/47.00

Steady

x

US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)

$30/31.00

Down $1.00

x

US Gulf South Africa

$30/31.00

Down $1.00

x

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$28/29.00

Down $1.00

x

US Gulf China: Panamax

$27/28.00

Down $1.00

x

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$17/18.00

Steady

X

US PNW China: Panamax

$16/17.00

Steady

x

US East Coast Egypt: Panamax

$41/42.00

Steady

x

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$48/49.00

Steady

x

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$22/23.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)

$21/22.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)

$24/25.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$21/22.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000

$37/38.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t

$47/48.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$21/22.00

Down $1.00

x

Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$27/28.00

Steady

x

Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t

$29/30.00

steady

X

Argentina to Egypt

$20/21.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t

$19/20.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$20/21.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Saudi Arabia

$33/34.00

Steady

X

Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$23/24.00

Down $2.00

X

Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t

$21/22.00

Steady

x

Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t

$21/22.00

Down $1.00

x

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t

$21/22.00

Steady

X

Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t

$19/20.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t

$20/21.00

Steady

x

Brazil to Europe

$21/22.00

Down $1.00

x

Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t

$20/21.00

Steady

x

Brazil to Saudi Arabia

$29/30.00

Steady

x

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$17/18.00

Steady

x

 

 

 

 

Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t

$6.50/7.00

Steady

x

Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t

$7.00/7.50

Steady

x

Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t

$10/11.00

Steady

x

 

 

 

 

Ukraine to China

$22/23.00

Down $1.00

x

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$18/20.00

Down $2.00

x

Ukraine to East Med: coaster

$39/41.00

Down $1.00

x

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)

$9/10.00

Down $1.00

x

Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t

$39/41.00

Down $1.00

x

Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$29/31.00

Down $2.00

x

Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$22/23.00

Down $2.00

x

Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)

$11/12.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$16/18.00

Down $2.00

X

Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k

$20/21.00

Down $1.00

x

Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t

$24/25.00

Down $1.00

x

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$21/22.00

Up $1.00

x

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

581

Up 95

x

Baltic Capesize Index

989

Up 383

x

Baltic Panamax Index

456

Down 7

x

Baltic Supramax Index

467

Down 5

x

Baltic Handisize Index

283

Down 5

x

 

 

 

 

Bunkerworld fuel index

570

Up 1

x

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2015/January 2016

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA

 USD 206/210

x

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein

 USD 208/211

x

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 196/200

x

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 195/201

x

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

 USD 198/202

x

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

 USD 188/191

x

   Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen

 USD 187/190

x

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver

 USD 198/203

x

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 185/189

x

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 177/178

x

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

 USD 187/190

x

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 184/189

x

   Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest

 USD 220/225

x

 

 

 

   Corn, FOB NOLA USA

 USD 173/175

x

   Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2

 USD 217/220

x

   Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 180/183

x

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

 USD 171/174

x

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 172/175

x

   Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 170/175

x

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 175/178

x

   Corn, FOB Romania

 USD 171/175

x

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

 USD 176/181

X

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD 140/145

x

 

 

 

   Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 330/333

X

   Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 358/361

X

   Soymeal, USA CNF Asia

 USD 393/401

x

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

 USD 344/349

X

   Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 320/323

x

   Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

 USD 338/342

x

   Soymeal, FOB Brazil

 USD 305/310

x

   Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ

 USD 550/560

x

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 367/370

x

   Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia

 USD 378/383

x

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 348/352

x

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 342/347

x

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 USD 359/364

x

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD   607/612 m/t

x

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont.

 USD   635/640 m/t

x

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Egypt, cont.

 USD   670/675 m/t

x

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD   164/168 m/t

x

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD   188/192 m/t

x

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont

 USD   220/224 m/t

x

 

The corn by-products markets were very quiet this week – due mainly to the US holidays – and there was very little change in either domestic or export prices. Yes, DDGS were indicated at USD 3 or 4 m/t lower but no one was too excited about doing any business on a holiday week.

 

Once everyone is recovered from eating too much turkey and turkey left-overs then the market will be back to normal. For me, one of the best things about the Thanksgiving holiday was being able to eat turkey sandwiches for lunch for at least a week – a couple of slices of bread, some butter, lots of turkey breast and salt and pepper – yum, yum.

 

 

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein

   Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein

   Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein

 USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia

   Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein

 USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia

   Australian MBM 45 protein

   Australian MBM 50 protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

 USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein

   USA Feathermeal, 80 protein

   USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

 USD 445/465 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 520/540 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia

 

Trade reports say that buyers in Asia, Indonesia in particular, have been able to book meat and bone meal that week at levels of about USD 15 m/t lower than last week. However, sellers are doing their best to try to keep prices up and Australian MBM is said to be selling at a premium to US product. It is also reported that Asian demand for poultry meal is picking up and the trend is now to higher prices in the region.

 

Poultry meal is extremely competitive to fishmeal into Asia which is probably pushing demand higher.

 

In the USA domestic market most prices were lower on the week but some of this could be due to the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and many companies being closed for two days. Two day holidays do tend to distort market prices as volume is so small that indicated prices may not be all that representative of where the market is.

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

 

Up to last Thursday, the catch in Peru was at about 243,000 m/t which leaves 867,000 m/t to go and lots of time to catch the balance. According to trade reports, everyone seems happy with the fishing so far.

 

On the selling side, business has been very quiet as producers are busy catching and processing while buyer are waiting for some slippage in the prices. Prices seen in the trade in Peru were a little lower this week and if the fishing continues along nicely then the trend should be to lower prices levels. However, no one is expecting any major drop in prices in coming weeks, no matter how good the fishing is – the quota is not all that large and fishmeal production will not be overwhelming. It will not take all that much demand from China to use up a very large chunk of the current production.

 

Much of the talk in this week's trade reports is about whether the quota can all be caught and which way prices are going to go – the better the catch the higher the expectation of lower prices but if fishing was to slack off a bit and finishing the quota comes into question then prices will move higher and a number of buyers will suddenly be in the market to cover their early 2016 needs.

 

So, it all comes down to how the Peru fishing is progressing and so far all looks quite good, so prices have weakened a little.

 

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Herring fishmeal

72 protein

1,750

Danish fishmeal

64 protein

1,505

Peru fishmeal

64 protein

1,750

Chile fishmeal

67 protein

1,850

Iceland fishmeal

70 protein

1,790

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65 protein 

1550/1570 m/t

 

   65/66 protein

1600/1620 m/t

 

   67 protein standard steam

1700/1720 m/t

No offers

   67 protein SD 150  TVN

1800/1820 m/t

No offers

   67 protein SD 120 TVN

1850/1870 m/t

1820/1840

   67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1900/1920 m/t

1870/1890

   68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN

1950/2000 m/t

1900/1920

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

2000/2050

1700/1800

   Fish oil, crude drums

2100/2150

 

   Fish oil, flexi tank

2150/2200

 

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

2450/2500

 

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon