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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
It was another down week for grain and oilseed prices in most world markets this week as forecasts on supplies just seem to get bigger and bigger for 2016 while demand remains steady or a just a tad higher.
USA futures prices had corn down by about USD 4 m/t with soybeans down by USD 8.50 m/t in the front month and USD 6 m/t a little further out, soymeal was down by USD 6 to 8 m/t. Most types of US wheat was down by about USD 5 m/t while wheat in Europe was down by as much as USD 8 m/t in some EU countries. Just looks to be a year of good crops everywhere, well most everywhere, with mountains of grain supply.
A couple of experts mentioned that they don't expect much change in the USA corn price trend until the USDA acreage and stocks report comes out in late March. Of course there will continue to be up and down days but most expect that prices for corn will be steady or lower in the near term – there just doesn't seem to be anything at present that can push corn prices higher.
Soybeans and soymeal were also lower on the week as things in South America look good even with the risk of some harvest delays in Brazil due to heavy rains – just not enough to get the market excited. Argentina is still seeing too much rain in some areas but overall most of the soybean crop should be very good.
As with corn, there is little in the market this week that would push prices any higher which will keep soybean/soymeal prices from any new trend higher. We are stuck with steady to lower price forecasts for the next few weeks.
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The US Grains Council has developed a new smartphone app that will convert grain quantities and prices to and from USA bushels to metric tons – and lots of other things too. The app is available at both the Apple Store and Google Play – the Apple Store info is below.
https://itunes.apple.com/am/app/u.s.-grains-council-conversion/id1078739553?mt=8
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf South Africa | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Bangladesh | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa | $33/34.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $12/13.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $47/48.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Steady | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Egypt | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $16/17.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $30/31.00 | down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $16/17.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t | $9.00/9.50 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t | $9.50/10.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $11/12.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Australia to South Africa | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Iran | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $7/8.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $10/11.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 327 | Up 12 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 177 | Down 30 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 352 | Down 3 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 333 | Up 47 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 212 | Up 14 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR March/May 2016
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 191/195 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 203/206 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 171/173 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 174/177 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 180/182 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 163/165 | X |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 162/164 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 195/200 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 168/171 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 159/161 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 157/161 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 170/174 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 140/145 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 153/160 | X |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 160/167 | x |
| Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2 | USD 207/211 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 162/167 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 156/160 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 163/168 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 167/169 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 163/167 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 164/174 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 150/155 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 316/318 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 342/344 | x |
| Soymeal, USA CNF Asia | USD 371/375 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 319/322 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 299/302 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 311/314 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 275/278 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ | USD 540/550 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 342/345 | x |
| Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia | USD 380/385 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 327/330 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 332/335 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 370/375 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 560/570 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont. | USD 609/613 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Egypt, cont. | USD 635/640 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 160/165 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 188>>182 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont | USD 221>>216 m/t | x |
Trade reports this week are pointing out that US exports of DDGS are still running at a very high level and that any fear over possible Chinese action on the dumping of DDGS seems not to have scared off many buyers – at least for now. DDGS prices moved up a little last week, as did corn gluten feed export prices but corn gluten meal seems to be stuck at the current level as it has been for the past few weeks. USA domestic DDGS prices were up by about USD 5 m/t, while corn gluten feed domestic prices were almost unchanged and corn gluten meal domestic prices were down by a maximum of USD 5 m/t
You would think that with lower prices for corn, soymeal and fishmeal that there would be some expectation that corn gluten meal prices would move lower. However, these days it seems that the supply/demand balance is just about right for CGM and prices are staying steady.
The three largest export buyers of CGM – Egypt, Chile and Indonesia – represent just over 60 percent of the US exports and their current buying is a little slow but still enough to keep prices steady.
As was mentioned last week, the export supply of all corn by-products is quite tight for March and into April due to plugged shipping positions and this will keep nearby price up at a premium to prices out a couple of months.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia USD 425/435 m/t CNF Asia USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 350/370 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 370/390 m/t CNF Asia USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 470/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 660/680 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 390/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 410/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia |
Animal protein prices made a move higher this week for most all types and origins. Depending on the product and the origin, prices have moved up a minimum of USD 10 m/t to a max of USD 20 m/t with some saying that meat and bone meal prices may be up as much as USD 30 m/t for export.
According to trade reports, the feeling is that export buyers have decided that prices will probably not move any lower and have decided to lock in some supplies for the next two or three months.
Domestic USA prices have moved higher this week and some are saying that this is due to export demand and not so much to demand in the USA.
Who knows, we may just have seen the bottom in animal protein prices but that is really hard to justify with soymeal and fishmeal continuing to move lower. This week's strength in prices may just be a short term reaction to a busy export sales week.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Another quite slow week in the fishmeal business as buyers just don't seem to be in a buying mood. Peru and Chile prices are steady while prices in Europe have slipped a little lower and Peru looks more competitive in Europe every week.
The trade in Peru is hoping that as February ends the buyers may all look at March as a good time to buy but that may just be wishful thinking.
For now, there is almost nothing to report on fishmeal --- not much in new sales, except for Super Prime grade.
According too China import numbers, they imported close to 70,000 m/t of fishmeal in January 2016 with about 33,500 m/t of that coming from Peru with about another 8,000 m/t coming from Chile. So Peru and Chile represent close to 60 percent of China's fishmeal imports so far in 2016. Less than 2 percent of China's imports came from North Atlantic sources.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,665 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,470 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,500 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,600 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,710 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1300/1320 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1330/1350 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1350/1370 m/t | No offers |
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1420/1450 m/t | 1450/1480 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | 1500/1520 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1550/1570 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t | 1650/1670 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2300/2350 | 2000/2100 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2450/2500 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2550/2600 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2800/2850 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon
