Saturday, August 27, 2016

Weekly Report - August 27, 2016

 
HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Once again this week the talk is about record supplies, mountains of grain, exports from everywhere and record crops in almost every country in the world --- while I am exaggerating there is certainly a lot of news that is bearish for prices. Only the France grain crops seem to be in serious question with the wheat problems well know and now seeming to be spreading to corn. As a resident of the South of France, I can tell you that the rainfall is very limited but then, as I remember, it is limited every summer – that is why we live here.

 

So, what happened this week: corn futures dropped by about USD 7 to 9 m/t, soybeans were down by about USD 13 m/t, soymeal down by around USD 10 m/t with most US wheat down by as much as USD 13 m/t. There just seems to be very little in the market to stop prices from moving lower.

 

Experts say that US corn prices were a little lower due to poorer export sales than expected with few buyers for old crop corn as everyone seems to be looking a little further out for shipments.

 

We are almost at the start of the corn harvest in parts of the US and all the long term weather looks very good for finishing the crop and bringing in the harvest. There is currently nothing in the weather that would tend to push US corn prices higher. However, there have some rumbles that the corn yields may not be quite as good as the USDA has been forecasting and this type of story, if accurate, could stop further price weakness for corn.

 

For soybeans, export sales seem to have gone a little quiet as everyone was expecting strong new sales every week – looks like we are in a bit of an export sales lull.

 

The forecasts for soybean yields, based on the recent "Pro Farmer Tour", are said to be even higher than those forecasted by the USDA and, again if so, this would tend to move prices lower.

 

As with corn, everything looks great for soybeans, at least until the next USDA report on the 12th of September.

 

 

Crop condition --- USA and France

 

Condition

USA

Aug 16, 2016

Very

poor

Poor

Fair

Good

Excellent

Corn

2

5

18

54

21

Soybeans

2

5

21

54

18

Sorghum

1

6

28

52

13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Condition

France

Aug 15, 2016

Very

poor

Poor

Fair

Good

Excellent

Wheat

12

26

30

29

4

Winter barley

6

22

31

37

5

Durum wheat

16

13

21

40

9

Spring barley

5

24

32

36

3

Corn

3

10

24

56

7

@USDA and France AgriMer

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)

$15/15.50

Steady

x

US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$22/23.00

Up $1.00

x

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT

$21/22.00

Up $1.00

x

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)

$20/21.00

Up $1.00

x

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000

$22/23.00

Up $1.00

x

US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$33/34.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$48/49.00

Steady

x

US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)

$33/34.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$29/30.00

Steady

x

US Gulf China: Panamax

$27/28.00

Steady

x

US PNW South Africa

$30/31.00

Up $1.00

x

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$16/17.00

Up $1.00

X

US PNW China: Panamax

$15/16.00

Up $1.00

x

US East Coast Egypt: Panamax

$43/44.00

Steady

x

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$48/49.00

Steady

x

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$26/27.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)

$24/25.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$32/33.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$25/26.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000

$34/35.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t

$34/35.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t

$52/53.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$26/27.00

Steady

x

Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$27/28.00

Down $1.00

x

Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$29/30.00

Down $1.00

x

Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$23/24.00

Up $1.00

x

Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Up $1.00

x

Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$25/26.00

Down $2.00

x

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t

$41/42.00

Steady

x

Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$25/26.00

Steady

x

Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t

$27/28.00

Steady

x

Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$26/27.00

Steady

x

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t

$27/28.00

Steady

x

Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t

$20/21.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t

$22/23.00

Up $1.00

x

Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Steady

x

Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t

$23/24.00

Steady

x

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$38/39.00

Up $1.00

x

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$24/25.00

Up $1.00

x

 

 

 

 

Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$19.50/20.00

Up $0.50

x

Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$19.50/20.00

Steady

X

Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t

$23/24.00

Steady

x

 

 

 

 

Ukraine to China

$24/25.00

Up $1.00

x

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)

$26/27.00

Steady

X

Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)

$25/26.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)

$10.50/11.50

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t

$13/14.00

Up $1.00

X

Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$25/26.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$22/23.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$18/19.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k

$23/24.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t

$31/32.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$17/18.00

Up $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

720

Up 37

x

Baltic Capesize Index

1001

Up 158

x

Baltic Panamax Index

687

Down 40

x

Baltic Supramax Index

715

Up 29

x

Baltic Handisize Index

431

Up 19

x

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR September/November 2016

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA

 USD 183/190

x

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein

 USD 189/200

x

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 162/166

x

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 170/173

x

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

 USD 173/176

x

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

 USD 185/187

x

   Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen

 USD 185/187

X

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver

 USD 202/206

x

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 159/163

x

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 154/157

x

   Barley, feed, Argentina

 USD 153/157

x

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 152/156

x

   Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest

 USD 175/180

x

 

 

 

   Corn, FOB NOLA USA

 USD 163/167

x

   Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 183/185

x

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

 USD 182/186

x

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 190/193

x

   Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 179/184

x

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 183/186

x

   Corn, FOB Romania

 USD 179/182

x

   Sorghum, FOB NOLA

 USD 174/176

x

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD 155/160

x

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 384/387

x

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 409/412

x

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

 USD 394/399

x

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 366/369

x

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

 USD 391/396

x

   Soymeal, FOB Brazil

 USD 366/371

x

   Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ

 USD 540/550

x

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 396/400

x

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 413/417

X

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 420/424

x

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 USD 420/430

x

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD  620/630 m/t

x

   Corn Gluten Meal, CNF Egypt

 USD  665/670 m/t

x

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD  155/159 m/t

X

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD  189/193 m/t

x

 

According to a comment from the US Grains Council this week the exports of DDGS could reach close to a new record level getting close to 12 million m/t. They also point out that while there is near record production of ethanol, which means more DDGS, there has been little or no downward pressure on DDGS prices. DDGS export prices into the major markets in Asia are up by at least a dollar or two per m/t this week.

It is also noteworthy that just under 94,000 m/t of DDGS was imported by the UK and Ireland this week. I am not too sure if this is the highest import week on record but it is certainly scads of DDGS. While we are only eight weeks into the reporting year for the EU, the DDGS imports are up by 500+% over last year. Certainly this large level of imports won't happen every week is certainly supportive for DDGS exports to the EU.

 

Corn gluten meal prices slipped lower again this week and seemed to have dropped about USD 20 m/t for export and between USD 15 and 20 in the domestic US market. With vegetable protein prices all lower it is almost impossible for CGM to remain high priced.  

 

Interestingly, almost nothing happened to corn gluten feed prices. Some exporters were calling prices a little lower but in general CGF prices were unchanged on the week.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein

   Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein

   Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein

 USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia

   Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein

 USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia

   Australian MBM 45 protein

   Australian MBM 50 protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

 USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 520/540 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 550/560 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 790/810 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein

   USA Feathermeal, 80 protein

   USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

 USD 500/520 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 550/580 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 660/670 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia

 

Export meat and bone meal prices into Asia are off this week by at least USD 10 m/t – at least for USA material. With meat and bone meal from South America selling at lower prices than that seen from the USA, OZ and NZ this, it is said is causing some pressure on prices. Not every country will accept South American MBM but the list of those that will seems to be expanding.

 

It was mentioned in the Jacobsen report this week that some countries are seeing EU origin MBM being smuggled into the country at prices far below what is seen for OZ/NZ product. The Australian cattle slaughter is at a seasonally low level which is trying to push MBM prices higher but most buyers in the international market have no interest in higher prices. While domestic buyers in Australia may have to pay more export buyers just source elsewhere.

 

USA prices continue week for animal protein and it is very difficult to find an expert who will even talk about higher prices. It looks like, for now, very good supply and low cost alternatives will keep most animal protein prices down.

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

It is always difficult to find something to report in weeks between the fishing seasons and this time is no different. The Peru government did send out a Research vessel to look at the biomass situation – probably the first research cruise of several in the coming weeks. MSI Ceres says that results from all the various biomass investigations should be submitted in mid-October so that the next quota can be set.

 

There are reports out of Peru that China was a reasonable buyer of available inventory but that producers had to lower their prices to get some Chinese interest. Unsold fishmeal stocks on hand in Peru could be as low as 20,000 m/t --- not very much.

 

Buyers will probably find it very difficult to locate supply from Peru in coming weeks as stocks get thin and particular grades of fishmeal become sold out.

 

According to the latest trade figures, Peru ships just under 41% of China's fishmeal imports while China is 70% of Peru's export business. Asian origins – Vietnam and Thailand – are now close to 22% of China's fishmeal imports. As we all know China is the largest importer of fishmeal with imports of just over 600,000 m/t January to July 2016.

 

As to prices from Peru – they should move higher as supplies get smaller but, with so many other protein alternatives available these days, fishmeal may have to stay at a reasonable price level in order to compete.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Cost per protein unit

Herring fishmeal

72% protein

1,900

26.39

Danish fishmeal

64% protein

1,540

24.06

Peru fishmeal

64% protein

1,655

25.85

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,750

26.11

Iceland fishmeal

70% protein

1,920

27.42

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein 

1510/1520 m/t

 

   65/66 protein

1530/1540 m/t

 

   67% protein standard steam

1560/1570 m/t

No offers

   67% protein 150 TVN

1610/1620 m/t

1620/1640

   67% protein 120 TVN

1670/1680 m/t

1670/1680

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1700/1720 m/t

1700/1720

   68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN

1750/1800 m/t

1750/1800

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

2100/2150

1650/1700

   Fish oil, crude drums

2250/2300

 

   Fish oil, flexi tank

2350/2400

 

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

2700/2800

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon