Saturday, August 09, 2025

Hammersmith Report --- Aug 09, 2025

 

     Hammersmith Reports

 

St Remy De Provence, 13210 France

Phone: +33.6.8068.4564   

Email:   wbacon@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    

 

 

WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT – August 09, 2025

 

The weeks certainly flash past --- another USDA-WASDE report will be issued next week and it hardly seems like a month since the last report.

 

Trade reports seem to favor the USDA as increasing the corn yield numbers with an increase in the overall US corn production. The USDA is also expected to increase the soybean yield estimates which will give small increase to total soybean production. Wheat production is expected to drop a little in the August WASDE report, which might change wheat prices to bullish.

 

Looking at USA prices this week, corn prices were down by USD 2 or 3 m/t for the week while new crop US soybeans were almost unchanged on the week – soymeal did move about USD 5 to 6 m/t higher. All US wheat prices were about unchanged at the end of the week from the previous week.

 

Weather for most of the US looks quite good for the next couple of weeks, which should certainly keep the farmers and the crops happy. With the good weather and the big crops, it is tough to see any major rallies in grains and oilseeds in the near term. Unless the WASDE report is a big surprise we should probably see a trading range for price for a bit until something exciting happens.

 

And a bit on tariffs --- the EU has decided to hold off for 6 months on any reciprocal tariffs against USA products that may have affected grains, oilseeds and protein items. So, for now, with the EU, it is all as normal for grain/oilseeds/etc.

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.

 

US Gulf to Europe: Panamax

$27.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t

$27.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t

$33.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$33.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t

$34.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf Morocco: Handi

$37.00

Steady

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$38.00

Steady

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$37.00

Steady

US Gulf other Med: Handi

$39.00

Steady

US Gulf South Africa: Handi

$41.00

Steady

US Gulf India : Panamax

$52.00

Steady

US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax

$52.00

Steady

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$55.00

Steady

US Gulf China: Panamax

$54.00

Steady

US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama

$38.00

Down $1.00

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$65.00

Steady

US PNW Philippines: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$29.00

Steady

US PNW China: Panamax

$28.00

Steady

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$45.00

Steady

US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t

$53.00

Steady

US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t

$59.00

Steady

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: Handi

$33.00

Steady

France/Germany to Bangladesh 40,000 m/t

$54.00

New

France/Germany to China: Panamax

$70.00

Steady

France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax

$46.00

Steady

France/Germany to Iran: Panamax

$38.00

Steady

France/Germany to Jordan: Panamax

$42.00

Steady

France/Germany to Morocco: Handi

$32.00

Steady

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$65.00

Steady

France/Germany to Turkey: Handi

$37.00

Steady

France/Germany to Yemen: Handi

$66.00

Steady

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: Handi

$46.00

Steady

Argentina to China: Panamax

$47.00

Steady

Argentina to Japan: Panamax

$48.00

Steady

Argentina to Egypt: Panamax

$53.00

Steady

Argentina to Europe: Panamax

$37.00

Steady

Argentina to Morocco: Handi

$45.00

Steady

Argentina to Libya: Handi

$46.00

Steady

Argentina to Jordan: Panamax

$55.00

Steady

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$62.00

Steady

Argentina to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax

$58.00

Steady

Argentina to South Africa: Panamax

$35.00

Steady

Argentina to Kenya: Handi

$53.00

Steady

Argentina to Spain: Panamax

$37.00

Steady

Argentina to Tunisia: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$42.00

Steady

Brazil to China: Panamax

$40.00

Down $2.00

Brazil to Japan: Panamax

$41.00

Down $2.00

Brazil to South Korea: Panamax

$48.00

Steady

Brazil to Europe: Panamax

$37.00

Steady

Brazil to Morocco: Handi

$41.00

Steady

Brazil to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$64.00

Steady

Brazil to Spain: Panamax

$37.00

Steady

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax

$59.00

Steady

 

 

 

Australia to Saudi: Panamax

$43.00

Steady

Australia to Europe: Panamax

$53.00

Steady

 

 

 

South Africa to Italy -- Handisize

$46.00

Steady

South Africa to Turkey – Handisize

$47.00

Steady

South Africa to Japan – Handisize

$43.00

Steady

South Africa to China -- Handisize

$43.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Black Sea freight

 

 

 

Black Sea to China: Panamax

$41 Russia

Ukraine $50

Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax

$53 Russia

Ukraine $64

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000

$16 Russia

Ukraine $39

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000

$15 Russia

Ukraine $28

Black Sea to Iran: Panamax

$42 Russia

Ukraine $61

Black Sea to Europe: Panamax

$28 Russia

Ukraine $29

Black Sea to East Spain -- Panamax

$25 Russia

Ukraine $23

Black Sea to Morocco – Handi

$23 Russia

Ukraine $29

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi

$22 Russia

Ukraine $28

Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax

$18 Russia

Ukraine $29

Black Sea to Libya – Handi

$23 Russia

Ukraine $29

Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax

$41 Russia

Ukraine $50

Black Sea to Turkey – Handi

$12 Russia

Ukraine $25

Black Sea to South Africa – Handi

$55 Russia

 

Black Sea to Nigeria – Handi

 

Ukraine $45

 

 

 

Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t

$32.00

Up $7.00

Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

$52.00

Up $10.00

Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

40% Capesize, 30% Panamax, 30% Supermax

2051

Up 33

Baltic Capesize Index

3342

Up 46

Baltic Panamax Index

1635

Down 9

Baltic Supramax Index

1320

Up 51

Baltic Handisize Index

683

Up 5

 

 

 

Freightos/Baltic Container Index

2135

Down 167

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2025/October 2025

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

USD 222<<239 Dec

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

USD 233<<243 Dec   

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 235<<240 Dec

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 240<<245 Dec

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

USD 240<<250 Dec   

   Wheat, Superior, France

USD 236/239 spot      

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 225<<230 Dec

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 220<<225 Dec     

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 225/230

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

USD 220/225

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

USD 220/225

   Barley, feed, Australia

USD 250/255

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

USD 195<<200 Dec

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 200<<215 Dec  

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD 200<<205 Dec   

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD 210<<215 Dec

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 232/235 Spot

   Corn, FOB Romania

USD 250<<260 Dec

   Corn, FOB Russia

USD 230<<240 Dec

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

USD 240<<215 Dec

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

USD 200<<210 Dec

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

USD 190<<195 Dec

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

USD 315<<320 Dec  

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD 345<<350 Dec  

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

USD 295<<310 Dec   

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 300<<315 Dec

 

 

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

USD 395<<400 Dec

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

USD 410<<415 Dec

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

USD 455<<450 Dec

   Soybeans, Black Sea

USD 410<<420 Dec

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

USD 570<<580 Oct

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

USD 205>>200 Oct

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD 225>>215 Oct 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

Fishing in the South Region totals about 30,200 m/t after last week which should yield about 6,800 m/t of fishmeal and 650 m/t of fishoil. The balance open on the South quota is now at just under 221,000 m/t.

 

Trade reports say that as soon as any supply of fishmeal appears from the South it is quickly snapped up by buyers.

 

Estimates for current fishmeal sales are now up to 555,000 m/t which should still leave a little fishmeal available for sale --- but not much and not high grades.

 

Fishmeal prices in China are reported to be steady to higher with high stocks on hand and lower sales recorded  --- while this may sound a little bearish due to heavy supplies most reports see the China market tending to be more bullish than bearish.

 

MSI Ceres was saying this week that they expect activity for the next fishing season “will happen very soon” but they add that producers will probably have to look at lower export prices. As they say in their newsletter – “why not start buying early to get to the front of the line.”

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Standard Herring

64% protein

$1710

Danish standard fishmeal

71% protein

$2350

Peru fishmeal

65% protein

$1695

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

$1830

Iceland fishmeal

71% protein

$2405

 

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein standard steam

1420/1440

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1520/1530

 

   67% protein 120 TVN

1600/1610

No prices

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1650/1660

1680/1690

   68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN

1710/1720

1710/1720

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk – feed grade

2500/2600

2100/2200

   Fish oil, crude drums

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, flexi tank

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

2900/3000

3100/3300

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be dependable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.

 

Copyright © 2025 Wayne S. Bacon