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WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT May 26, 2018
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Monday is a holiday in the US so week ending prices do tend to do funny things in advance of a long weekend – no traders want to hold open positions for a three day weekend, just too much risk.
Soybeans, soymeal and wheat were all strong this week as corn prices just followed along, ending the week up just a shade. Soybeans were up by about USD 16 m/t on the week while soymeal was up by about USD 8 m/t for later delivery. Winter wheat prices were up by USD 9-10 m/t with spring wheat up by USD 5-6 m/t.
The small increase in corn prices was due to the continuing concern on the second corn crop in Brazil – just not enough rainfall. While some areas of the US are also quite dry, the main corn areas are ok for ground moisture and, as had been expected, the US corn plantings have caught up with where they should be. Some futures experts are saying that corn is in an uptrend and that futures price increases could continue in the near term.
Soybeans and soymeal were up strongly, driven higher by expected soybean business with China and further concerns over the truck strikes in Brazil which are limiting exports. The truck strikes are also said to be limiting soymeal production as beans are not being delivered to crushers. One small comment is that the rally in futures prices on Friday were made with very low volume – perhaps the rally will be reversed next week.
The situation with US wheat was due to weather, weather and weather --- too hot and too dry in the US. The wheat situation in other countries, like Russia and Australia were also supportive of US prices – lower wheat production in other countries got US futures players excited and prices moved higher quickly. However, as with soybeans the wheat price rally was on low volume so may also be reversed next week, once the holiday is over.
Crop Situation and Condition – USA and France
| France | Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Good % | Very Good % |
| Condition |
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| Wheat - soft | 1 | 5 | 15 | 71 | 8 |
| Wheat - hard | 0 | 4 | 17 | 76 | 3 |
| Barley, winter | 1 | 7 | 17 | 70 | 5 |
| Barley, spring | 1 | 4 | 18 | 75 | 2 |
| Corn | 0 | 1 | 12 | 82 | 4 |
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| Planted | This week % | Last week % | This week 2017 % |
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| Corn | 94 | 86 | 99 |
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| USA
| Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Good % | Very Good % |
| Condition |
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| Wheat, winter | 15 | 20 | 29 | 29 | 7 |
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| Planted | This week % | Last week % | This week 2017 % | Average 2013/17 % |
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| Corn | 81 | 62 | 82 | 81 |
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| Sorghum | 39 | 32 | 36 | 38 |
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| Soybeans | 56 | 35 | 50 | 44 |
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| Wheat, spring | 79 | 58 | 88 | 80 |
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| Barley | 81 | 62 | 87 | 84 |
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Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $36/37.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $21.50/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: 50,000 m/t | No info |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1077 | Down 204 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1395 | Down 658 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1187 | Down 54 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 1071 | Up 2 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 587 | Down 3 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2018/August 2018
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 231/235 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA | USD 253/258 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 201/205 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 210/213 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 206/210 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 209/211 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD no prices | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 188/193 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD no prices | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 178/181 Aug/Sep | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 210/213 | X |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | x |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 187/190 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 204/206 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, Upriver | USD 189/192 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 187/191 July/August | x |
| Corn, FOB France - Atlantic | USD 203/207 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 193/196 | x |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 195/198 | x |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 193/196 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 184/187 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 178/182 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 440/444 July/Sept | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 465/469 July/Sept | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 447/450 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 415/418 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 445/448 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 416/419 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 406/409 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 419/423 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 406/409 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD no prices | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 605>>595 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 186>>175 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 265>>252 July/Sep | x |
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The USDA average price this week show that corn gluten feed prices in the US were up by about USD 4 m/t on the week with corn gluten meal said to be up by about USD 5 m/t. While the USDA has DDGS price up by about USD 5 m/t some shippers are said to be offering at slightly lower prices.
Prices into Asia are higher for DDGS by USD 5 to 70 m/t CNF with both CGF and CGM being steady on the week for export to Asia.
Higher prices for soymeal should keep prices from falling but it is still reported that buyers are bidding well below the current prices – especially for DDGS.
We still see the large premium for nearby shipments and this does not seem to be disappearing – but we keep hoping.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 350/360 m/t CNF Asia USD 385/395 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 820/830 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 460/470 to Indonesia USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 605/615 m/t CNF Asia USD 900/920 m/t CNF Asia |
Not much new in the export animal protein business, prices into major markets were steady on the week. With many buyers out of the market due to Ramadan demand has been limited. It is expected that the stronger soymeal prices should push MBM prices higher and with fishmeal not falling any lower prices could remain steady to higher with not too many reasons to slip lower.
The US domestic market is also steady except for poultry meal which slipped a little lower on the week, but these lower prices have not yet been seen in the export market.
Most trade reports seem to feel that prices will be steady for the next while or higher if soymeal moves up.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in Peru is still quite good with the catch last week averaging about 40,000 m/t per day, but the daily catch levels are slipping a bit. The total catch to date is now at close to 2.4 million m/t, leaving about 900,000 m/t of the quota. Looks like there is a very good chance to land the entire quota – fingers crossed.
Not much actual business being done in Peru these days. Buyers are not rushing to buy as fishing is still good and supply is building while producers are still trying to cover all their sales before they book much more. But the time will come when buyer will want to buy, and sellers will be willing to sell, and we will see what happens to prices – some "experts" say higher while others say lower.
There are some rumors in the market that lower grades of fishmeal are selling at a discount to prices shown below but that prime and super prime are not being discounted due to limited supply.
MSI-Ceres made the comment this week that "buyers come to Peru for the sweet smell of fishmeal" – for anyone who has not smelled fishmeal or fishmeal production, MSI-Ceres was joking. The odor from a warehouse full of fishmeal can knock you off your feet.
We had an inquiry this week from Turkey for fishmeal and found that the company had sent their inquiry to almost everyone in the fishmeal business in the world. Some traders never learn that contacting 50 people for the same business is of no value and normally would hurt the trader's reputation. It is a much better idea to develop a good relationship with a very limited number of good suppliers or brokers – blanketing the market is just not a good idea.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,720 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,495 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,475 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,525 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,685 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1220/1240 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1250/1270 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1300/1320 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1400/1420 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1450/1470 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | 1550/1570 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1580/1600 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1300/1350 | 1250/1300o |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1400/1450 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1500/1550 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1650/1700 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2018 Wayne S. Bacon
