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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT January 27, 2024
Soybeans and soymeal had down weeks this week as US wheat prices moved higher and corn did nothing.
The word in most trade reports this week is that ever increasing world production levels for grains and oilseeds are weighing very heavily on the market. We are about to see very, very large soybean production levels for soybeans from Argentina and Brazil --- perhaps not quite as high as originally forecasted but still very significant production,
Corn production in the USA looks to be very good for 2024 – unless the weather takes a bad turn as can happen but so far, we are looking at a good corn crop. Argentina too is looking at a very good corn year in 2024 with increased planting. Soil moisture levels in Argentina are said to be very good. USA weather forecasts look to increased rainfall in the next few days which will hopefully offset some of the drought conditions seen in the corn/soybean areas.
Soybean/soymeal prices slipped lower on the week as everything was looking great for the crops in South America. USA soybeans are going to have to fight hard for every ton of export business in 2024. Of course, much of what happens with soybeans/meal in 2024 depends on what happens in China --- with reductions in China’s pig herd, as seen at close to 6%, 2024 demand could be seriously affected.
US wheat prices were a little lower on Friday, but up on the week, as US prices reacted to softer prices in other corners of the world. Argentina getting the OK for wheat to China also added a little to the weakness as there were concerns to the effect of US wheat exports to China. Experts seem to feel that US wheat prices could continue lower into February.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $28.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
$28.00 | Up $1.00 | X | |
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $30.00 | Down $3.00 | x |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $30.00 | Down $3.00 | x |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $31.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $42.00 | Steady | x |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $43.00 | Steady | X |
$45.00 | Steady | x | |
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $44.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $51.00 | Down $5.00 | X |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $50.00 | Down $5.00 | X |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | X |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | x |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
US PNW China: Panamax | $25.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | X |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $60.00 | Closed | X |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $69.00 | Closed | X |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $32.00 | Steady | x |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $82.00 | Steady | x |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | x |
France/Germany to Jordan | $40.00 | Steady | x |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $31.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $35.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $66.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $62.00 | Steady | x |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $51.00 | Up $4.00 | x |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $52.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady | x |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $61.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $62.00 | Steady | x |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady | x |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | x |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $59.00 | Steady | x |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $33.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $62.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $50.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $44.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $45.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $49.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $64.00 | Steady | x |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | x |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | x |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | x |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $62 Russia | Ukraine $59 | X |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $59 Russia | Ukraine $77 | X |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $23 Russia | Ukraine $28 | X |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $23 Russia | Ukraine $28 | X |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $54 Russia | Ukraine $61 | X |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $27 Russia | Ukraine $43 | X |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $29 Russia | Ukraine $46 | X |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $28 Russia | Ukraine $45 | X |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $53 | X |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $29 Russia | Ukraine $47 | X |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $45 Russia | Ukraine $70 | X |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $19 Russia | Ukraine $25 | x |
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $58.00 | Steady | x |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $82.00 | Steady | X |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | X |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $93.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Baltic Dry Index | 1518 | Up 15 | X |
Baltic Capesize Index | 2135 | Down 109 | X |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1696 | Up 146 | X |
Baltic Supramax Index | 1065 | Up 35 | X |
Baltic Handisize Index | 596 | Up 2 | x |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 3411 | Up 318 | x |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR February 2024/April 2024
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 256<<259 May | X |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 286<<290 May | X |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 215<<220 May | X |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 235<<240 May | X |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 235<<245 May | X |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 237<<244 May | X |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 235<<255 May | x |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 205/215 | X |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 215/218 | X |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 220/225 | X |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 190/195 | X |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 245/250 | X |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 200<<205 May | X |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 225<<230 May | X |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 205>>195 May | X |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 220>>200 May | X |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 213/218 | X |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 210<<220 May | X |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 215<<225 May | X |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t – Odessa port | USD 205<<220 May | X |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 280/290 | X |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 253/258 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 425<<405 May | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 460<<440 May | X |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 415>>375 May | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 495/500 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 425>>385 May | X |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 470<<475 May | X |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 425>>415 May | X |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 420>>415 May | X |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 475<<490 Apr | X |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 600/610 | X |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 210/220 | X |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 240>>235 Apr | x |
All corn coproducts prices were steady this week even as protein prices like soymeal moved a little lower. Trade reports suggest that we could see some price weakness next week, especially if soymeal prices remain weak.
Export prices were all steady although continued strength in container freight rates is pushing CNF destination prices higher every week. The continuing problems with container freight do not look like they will get any easier in the short term so buyers are expected to be looking at CNF prices moving higher while FOB prices could be lower.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
All is quiet in Peru with fishing having come to an end and unsold stock levels very low. Trade reports these days seem to be spending most of the time talking about the El Nino situation over the next few months. Really not a huge amount of concern over El Nino as all reports lean toward a vet moderate event as a possibility.
Trade reports do say that Peru prices for the last remaining supply are moving a little higher. Super prime and Prime fishmeal prices are still very high due largely to a total lack of any supply. At the lower end of the quality standards there is a little weakness in the market but with so little to sell no one expects lower prices before next season.
After this season’s lack of high quality fishmeal, China buyers will probably pile into next season and book as much prime quality as produces are willing to sell which is expected to keep prices for good grades of fishmeal quite strong. MSI Ceres mentioned in this week’s report that spread between prime and standard fishmeal reached a record level of $600 m/t in 2023, up from a more normal level of $200 m/t.
MSI Ceres also noted this week how non-Peru fishmeal supply to China was up by about 314,000 m/t due to a lack of supply from Peru --- Vietnam, Indian, Mexico, USA and Thailand showed large increases in fishmeal supply. These producers will be fighting hard to maintain the export levels to China in 2024 --- it is going to be a very competitive year.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Standard fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,765 Corrected |
Danish standard fishmeal | 71% protein | 2,015 |
Peru fishmeal | 65% protein | 1,920 |
Chile fishmeal | 66% protein | 1,920 |
Iceland fishmeal | 71% protein | 2,020 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 1580/1600 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 1650/1670 | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 1800/1820 | 1820/1840 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1950/1970 | 1920/1940 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2000/2020 | 2000/2020 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,100/5,200 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 12,000+ | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2024 Wayne S. Bacon
