Saturday, January 31, 2015

Weekly report - January 31, 2015

 

Hammersmith Trade Services

A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   January 31, 2015

 

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Blowing my own horn a bit this week and mentioning that I have been elected to the Council of the Grain and Feed Trade Association (GAFTA). The Council has 22 members representing all areas of the world.  GAFTA has over 1500 members in 86 countries.

 

Now, back to the grain business, it was another weak for lower prices for most everything. Corn prices were down by USD 6 or 7 m/t, soybeans down by USD 3 to 4 m/t, soymeal was actually about the same price level on the week and most wheat prices were down by about USD 10 m/t.

 

The US Dollar continues to race higher in value which makes US commodities more expensive in world markets which then tends to push export commodity prices down a little. The US futures market has been hit hard by commodity funds selling off their long positions in order to avoid losses, which is not at all an unexpected happenstance. And then, as mentioned last week, farmers are selling more grain in order to avoid their stocks on hand selling for even lower prices. As we all know, when everyone decides to sell it just pushes prices lower.

 

There was some comment in the US trade press that corn prices tend to move higher from February on but with world crops at record high levels that may not happen this year. There is lots of competition in the world market for corn exports with buyers just moving to the lowest priced market, as situations change.

 

There was also the comment on the Black Sea that the Ukraine may ship more corn in the next few months since the government and exporters have agree on wheat export levels –with less wheat moving out the farmers may be more inclined to sell their corn into the export market in order to fully finance spring crops.

 

Soybeans had a tough few days as rains in South America seemed to hit all those areas that needed rain and estimates of the huge soybean crop just grow and grow and grow, so there seems to be little reason at present to expect higher soybean prices. It is interesting to see that soybeans and soymeal have tremendous demand but still can't move higher as the expected crops are just too large for even record demand.

 

The USDA will be issuing some preliminary planting estimates at the Agricultural Outlook Forum on February 19-20 and this may just shake up the market a little. Other than that and the weather in Brazil and Argentina there is not too much exciting happening with grain and oilseed prices.

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

According to trade reports the Baltic Index this week is at its lowest level in just under 30 years and the Index has dropped by 95% from the record level that was set back in 2008. The overall Baltic Dry index is down by close to 60% since November 2014. According to some reports the drop is due to a fall in demand from China, lower oil prices and falling currency values. The largest drop in freight values is in the very largest Capesize vessels but all vessel sizes are experiencing at least some drop in freight rates – except perhaps small coaster size vessels which have always set their own price trends.

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)

$13/14.00

Down $1.00

x

US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)

$23/24.00

Down $2.00

x

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT

$27/28.00

Down $2.00

x

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)

$26/27.00

Down $2.00

x

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000

$28/29.00

Down $2.00

x

US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)

$28/29.00

Down $2.00

x

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$49/50.00

Down $2.00

x

US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)

$28/29.00

Down $2.00

x

US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t

$38/39.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000

$48/49.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$30/31.00

Down $6.00

x

US Gulf China: Panamax

$28/29.00

Down $5.00

x

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$20/21.00

Down $4.00

x

US East Coast Egypt: Panamax

$40/41.00

Down $1.00

x

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$51/52.00

down $1.00

x

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$24/25.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)

$25/26.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)

$30/31.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$25/26.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000

$38/39.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t

$35/36.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t

$45/46.00

Steady

x

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$28/29.00

Down $1.00

x

Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$30/31.00

Steady

x

Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t

$33/34.00

Steady

x

Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)

$23/24.00

Down $2.00

x

Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t

$24/25.00

Down $2.00

x

Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$26/27.00

Down $2.00

x

Argentina to Saudi Arabia

$41.00

Steady

x

Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$29/30.00

Steady

x

Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t

$28/29.00

Down $2.00

x

Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t

$30/31.00

Down $1.00

x

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Steady

x

Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t

$23/24.00

Down $2.00

X

Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Down $1.00

x

Brazil to Europe

$22/23.00

Down $3.00

x

Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t

$24/25.00

Steady

x

Brazil to Saudi Arabia

$41/42.00

Steady

x

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$18/19.00

Down $2.00

x

 

 

 

 

Black Sea to China

$28/29.00

Down $1.00

x

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to East Med: coaster

$38/39.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)

$14/15.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t

$43/44.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$21/22.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t

$19/20.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k

$25/26.00

steady

x

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$20/21.00

Steady

x

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

608

Down 112

x

Baltic Capesize Index

679

down 208

X

Baltic Panamax Index

508

Down 177

X

Baltic Supramax Index

585

Down 65

X

Baltic Handisize Index

340

Down 40

x

 

 

 

 

Bunkerworld fuel index

703

Down 1

x

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR FEB 2015/APRIL 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA

 USD 234>>230

x

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein

 USD 248/250

x

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 248/252

x

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 257/262

x

   Wheat, Romania

 USD 245/249

x

   Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen

 USD 214/217

x

   Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen

 USD 207/210

x

   Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver

 USD 244/250 

x

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 210/215

x

   Wheat Bran, Black Sea

 USD 165/170

x

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 207/210

x

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

 USD 215>>200

x

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 210/215

x

   Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest

 USD 260/265

x

 

 

 

   Corn, FOB NOLA USA

 USD 178>>174

x

   Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 189/192

x

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

 USD 180/185

x

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 176/180

x

   Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 170/175

x

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 168/172

x

   Corn, FOB Romania

 USD 173/178

x

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

 USD 254/257

x

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD 195/200

x

 

 

 

   Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 475/495  

X

   Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 540/550

X

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

 USD 460>>445

X

   Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 425/435

X

   Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

 USD 450>>439

x

   Soymeal, FOB Brazil

 USD 400/415

X

   Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB

 USD 640/645

x

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 400/411

X

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 372>>364

X

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 395>>385

X

   Soybeans, Rotterdam

 USD 423>>415

X

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 USD 400/405

x

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD   780/790 m/t

x

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD   175/180 m/t

x

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD   270>>260 m/t

x

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia

 USD   320>>310 m/t

x

 

 

There seems to be quite a wide range of export prices for DDGS with sources talking about prices USD 10 m/t below and above the average price shown above. The US Grains Council report this week was saying that much of the FOB port price variability has been due to changes in freight logistics in the US as Mississippi barge prices and domestic rail prices seem to be competing for the same business --- the DDGS seem to flow to where the domestic freight costs are the lowest.

 

There was an interesting note about container freight from the West Coast of the USA in the trade press this week. It said that due to very, very long container loading delays on the West Coast, container vessels are having to be repositioned from the East Coast of the USA, which is making eastern container shipments of DDGS and CGM much more difficult and more expensive.  It seems that in the USA there are just not enough container vessels to go around – especially with so many being delayed on the west coast.

 

Corn Gluten Meal export demand remains very good with one shipper this week quoting CGM to Egypt in bulk containers above the USD 880 m/t range…..of course, at that price level, few in Egypt can afford bulk CGM in containers. However, CGM is still much cheaper than fishmeal.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein

   Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein

 USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia

   Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein

 USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia

   European MBM 45 protein

   European MBM 50 protein

   European Feathermeal, 75 protein

   European poultry meal, pet food

 USD 385/405 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 425/450 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 1050/10700 m/t CNF Asia

   Australian MBM 45 protein

   Australian MBM 50 protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

 USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 610/620 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 760/780 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 1040/1070 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein

   USA Feathermeal, 80 protein

   USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

 USD 590/600 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 630/650 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 1020/1050 m/t CNF Asia

 Very wide range in price

 

Meat and bone meal export prices were a little softer this week from most origins as demand in Asia has slipped a bit due to the upcoming Chinese New Year holidays that will affect a number of importing countries. Also, the drop in soybean prices tended to make animal proteins a little less attractive to buyers. There was very little actual new business reported this week and not even much in the way of buyer's inquiries as the export market seems to have gone very quiet. Of course the problems with US poultry meal and feathermeal continue, so both those markets are down on actual sales and on export prices.

 

USA domestic animal protein prices were lower on the week much of which was due to the weakness in soybeans and the expected lower soymeal prices. Most trade reports this week say that the animal protein market will probably have lower export prices for the next few weeks, as export demand is forecasted to stay weak.

 

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

   Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein

 USD 430/440 m/t   

   Feathermeal  80 protein USA

 USD 480/500 m/t         

   Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA

 USD 480/500 m/t  

   Poultry meal, Pet Food grade, 64 pro

 USD 670/690 m/t

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Ah, the fishmeal business is so quiet in Peru as we all just wait to see what happens with the Southern Peru Region fishing quota. The official report on the southern situation should be out by no later than mid-February. While the quota is never all that large, it will just be nice for some fishermen to get back to work and for buyers to see a little new stock fishmeal.

 

These days the talk in Peru seems to be about what will happen to fishmeal prices once the major fishing season is announced again for April/May. We all know that prices will have to slip lower but how much lower is the question of the week. There was one comment in the trade that about USD 200 m/t lower will be a place to start but that prices could move as much as USD 300 to 400 m/t lower, especially for the higher grades which are currently at a USD 400 m/t premium.

 

China is about to go off for Chinese New Year holidays, so not too much exciting expected from there in the next couple of weeks but we will see what they decide to do about fishmeal when they get back from holidays. We are all looking forward to seeing exactly what China will decide to do about the next Peru fishing season. Will Chinese buyer dive in and buy up the expected stocks or will they hang about and wait until producers need to book some new business and are getting very price flexible. We just have to wait and see.

 

According to MSI Ceres report this week there is very little fishmeal business being done from any origin as all the major buyer are out of the market for now. No one, especially the Chinese, wants to pay the current high prices and most regular buyers seem to have good stocks on hand. I guess things will stay pretty quiet into April.    

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Herring fishmeal

72 protein

1,990

Danish fishmeal

64 protein

1,700

Peru fishmeal

64 protein

2,020

Chile fishmeal

65 protein

2,170

Iceland fishmeal

70 protein

2,080

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65 protein 

1930/1950 m/t

 

   65/66 protein

2050/2070 m/t

 

   67 protein standard steam

2090/2110 m/t

 

   67 protein SD 150  TVN

2210/2230 m/t

2100/2130

   67 protein SD 120 TVN

2300/2320 m/t

2200/2250

   67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN

2330/2350 m/t

2320/2340

   68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN

2350/2380 m/t

2370/2390

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

2500/2550

1950/2000

   Fish oil, crude drums

2600/2650

 

   Fish oil, flexi tank

2550/2600

 

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

2900/3000

 

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon