Hammersmith Reports
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT October 28, 2023
Except for ever rallying soymeal, all prices drifted a little lower this week. Soymeal was up again by about USD 15 to 20 m/t for end of 2023 shipment but not up as much going into 2024. Corn export prices moved lower by about USD 6 m/t with soybeans also a little lower by USD 2 m/t for 2023 positions. USA winter wheat was down about USD 4 m/t for soft red and USD 8 m/t for hard red with spring wheat down by about USD 5 m/t.
Grain/oilseed markets were all higher on Friday but not enough to overcome lower prices early in the week. The push to get to higher prices for soybeans/soymeal on Friday were all export sales related – just seems to be too much new business for prices to continue to show weakness.
While corn prices were up on Friday and down on the week, exports say that corn is just moving within a trading range with nothing too exciting for the market. New export sales were quite good but actual corn export shipments were below expectations. This is the time of the year for US corn to do well in export markets, but corn exports are not doing as well as hoped or expected.
US wheat prices all moved lower this week with quiet domestic markets and low export sales and shipments. Experts are saying that unless the US develops some decent export business, wheat prices could easily continue lower.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $28.00 | Down $1.00 | |
$28.00 | Down $1.00 | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $35.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $36.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $36.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $37.00 | Steady | |
$42.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $38.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $57.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $57.00 | Steady | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $30.00 | Steady | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $30.00 | Steady | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $61.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $70.00 | Up $1.00 | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $82.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $26.00 | Down $2.00 | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $64.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $62.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $49.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $50.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $50.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $36.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $61.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $63.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $36.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $62.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $47.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $41.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $38.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $46.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $63.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $38.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $57.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $58 Russia | Ukraine $57 | |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60 Russia | Ukraine $77 | |
Black Sea to Bangladesh: Panamax | $35 Russia | Ukraine $56 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $21 Russia | Ukraine $40 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $23 Russia | Ukraine $29 | |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $46 Russia | Ukraine $61 | |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia | Ukraine $29 | |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $29 Russia | Ukraine $48 | |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $28 Russia | Ukraine $47 | |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $53 | |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $29 Russia | Ukraine $48 | |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $43 Russia | Ukraine $67 | |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $16 Russia | Ukraine $30 | |
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | ||
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $28.00 | Down $3.00 | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $62.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $77.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Baltic Dry Index | 1563 | Down 483 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 2226 | Down 1330 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1605 | Down 33 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 1184 | Down 104 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 671 | Up 5 | |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 1094 | Up 46 | |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2023/January 2024
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 255<<258 Feb | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 288<<294 Feb | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 190/195 | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 225/230 | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 240/245 | |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 248<<255 Feb | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 265>>255 Feb | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 205/210 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 221/224 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 225/235 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 175/180 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 255/260 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 220/225 | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 240/245 | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 215/220 | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 220/225 | |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 220/223 | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 210/215 | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 205/210 | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 185/190 | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 285/290 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 263/268 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 545>>515 Feb | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 575>>545 Feb | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 525>>480 Feb | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 545/550 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 520>>470 Feb | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 505<<510 Feb | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 540>>475 Feb | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 515>>485 Feb | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 690/695 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 245/250 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 260>>255 Feb | |
Spot DDGS prices are down on the week by about USD 10 m/t due to better availability and strong production. Domestic demand for DDGS is good as winter approaches and feed supplies are stockpiled. Export prices at NOLA are actually a little higher as competition for river barges has pushed up transport prices to NOLA.
Corn gluten meal prices were higher again this week as soymeal price increases have pushed protein prices higher for all products. Export buyers who were waiting for lower prices will have to wait longer as prices are just not moving lower.
Corn gluten feed was just chugging along and moved a little higher even with lower corn prices this week.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
Last weeks reported rumor was the truth after all – the new quota of 1,682,000 m/t of catch was officially issued and fishing has started. Total catch is at 119,800 m/t leaving 1,562,200 m/t on the quota. However, there has still not been a quota announced for the southern region of Peru.
Trade stories/rumors say that the price for Peru super prime fishmeal has dropped by about USD 300 m/t to USD 2150 m/t with China buyers bidding USD 100 lower. Lower prices can not be confirmed as no business seems to have actually been booked.
Producers are not booking any new business due to the carry over orders from last season and due to the uncertainty of the fishing. Producers want to wait longer to clear the old business and determine how the new season is going. No one wants to book new business until they have some saleable product in hand.
Also affecting all fishmeal business is the high juvenile level and a few mini bans on fishing. We all need a little time to see how the season is going before rushing off to sell or to buy.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,150 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,825 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 2,145 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 2,145 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,045 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 2250/2270 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 2300/2320 | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 2350/2370 | 2000/2020 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2400/2420 | 2050/2070 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2450.2470 | 2100/2120 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,200/5,300 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 9,200+ | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
