-------------------------
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroUp@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT March 24, 2018
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
The US had some quite good rainfall this week which was good for thirsty wheat and in advance for corn and soybeans – nothing like building the ground moisture level to help he next crop.
Corn prices were almost unchanged this week as any bad news – like possible trade restrictions – were offset by the rainfall and possible corn crop improvement in Brazil and South Africa. In the US, it is said that continued farmer selling of corn is helping to push prices a little lower or at least not rallying. The US Grains Council weekly report call the market for corn bearish due in part to corn export sales running 28% behind last year.
We have the USDA "Prospective Plantings" report coming out next week and this could set the trend for corn prices for a while. The estimates for planting by private services are all over the map so we will need to wait and see what the USDA has to say.
Soybean prices were down by about USD 8 m/t, pushed lower mainly by concerns that China could put trade tariffs on US soybeans in retaliation to the restrictions put in place by the Trump government in the US. China is the main destination for US soybeans and a drop in their imports from the US would be painful for US farmers. So far, soybeans and soymeal are not on the China list of goods with counter tariffs – but is still could happen.
The continued weakness in wheat prices seems to be related mainly to the improved rainfall but as some experts have pointed out: rainfall on frozen ground just runs off. Experts are still looking at winter wheat yields being quite a bit below normal --- perhaps there is still some room for another wheat rally.
Sorry if the report is a little shorter this week but we are moving to a new home on Monday – not too far away – and have spent all week packing boxes and moving bits and bobs to the new house. My wife and I are trauchled (that is exhausted in Scots).
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $17/17.50 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady |
|
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $11/12.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $25/26q.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.00/20.50 | Up $0.50 | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $21.50/22.00 | Up $0.50 | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $53/54.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Yemen: 50,000 m/t | No info |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Baltic Dry Index | 1122 | Down 21 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1157 | Down 46 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1587 | Down 31 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 1121 | Up 30 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 627 | Up 14 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR April 2018/June 2018
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 210>>204 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA | USD 224/228 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 197/199 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 208/210 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 204/206 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 206/208 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 220/222 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 196/199 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 217/219 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 212/215 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 200/205 | X |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | x |
|
|
|
|
| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 180/183 | x |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 195/198 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, Upriver | USD 185/188 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 180/184 July/August | x |
| Corn, FOB France - Atlantic | USD 203/205 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 200/203 | x |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 199/203 | x |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 196/198 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 182/185 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 189/192 April/May | x |
|
|
|
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 438>>431 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 463>>456 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 435/438 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 407/410 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 432/436 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 394/499 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 401/403 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 407/410 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 413/415 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 415/420 | x |
|
|
|
|
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 620 >>600 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 190 >>170 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 230 >>220 July m/t | x |
|
|
|
|
Starting this week with the USDA domestic average prices, we see corn gluten feed up by no more than USD 1.5 m/t while corn gluten meal is said to be down by about USD 7 m/t in domestic US markets – DDGS prices look to be about steady.
On the export side of things, nearby shipments are still at a considerable premium to prices a couple of months out.
Export buying of corn by-products was limited this week – especially for DDGS where new buying interest was very light.
Not really too much new to report as the market just keep following protein prices and corn prices.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 395/405 m/t CNF Asia USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 900/910 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 530/540 to Indonesia USD 535/545 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 930/950 m/t CNF Asia |
The price for MBM shipments to Indonesia continue to move higher this week as the weakness in soymeal is yet to have hit the market --- perhaps we will see a price dip next week but with soymeal still moving higher that is not too likely yet.
Prices for animal proteins from Australia and New Zealand are said o be steady but a drop in production could push prices higher.
US domestic markets are quite strong as animal proteins have been priced very well against soymeal. US protein buyers are quick to switch to the most cost-effective feed proteins and right now meat and bone meal seems to have a very good price level for the feed guys.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
There was a little fishing done in the southern area of Peru this week – but not much, only about 2000 m/t of catch – just too many mini-bans on fishing.
The IMARPE cruise continues and everyone seems to be quite enthusiastic – but this is all just guessing at the results. You can guess as much as you lime but the end of the cruise will provide the actual details and that still has some time to go.
Business has been quiet this week, as most of the major players are off in China for the JCI Conference --- perhaps there will be a stack of new business from China announced after the conference. The word has been that buyers are looking for lower fishmeal prices before committing much more to Peru. Of course, producers are also not active sellers and would prefer to wait for the quota rather than getting oversold.
The Peru export details are out for fishmeal and China is still on top with 78% of the Peru exports for the first two months of 2018 – followed by Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam. The top four importers account for about 93% of all Peru's fishmeal exports. So far in 2018.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Sorry, no update on European prices as my source is out of touch this weekend.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,860 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,600 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,600 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,660 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,870 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
|
| 65% protein | 1400/1420 m/t |
|
| 65/66 protein | 1450/1470 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1500/1520 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1580/1600 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1630/1650 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1680/1700 m/t | 1700/1720 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1730/1750 m/t | 1750/1770 |
|
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2500/2550 | No info |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2600/2650 |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2700/2750 |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 3000/3100 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2018 Wayne S. Bacon
