Hammersmith Reports
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Email : wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT July 29, 2023
Corn finished the week just a little lower as the weather forecast looks much better with some decent rainfall in the corn belt seen over the next two weeks. Exports say that improved weather and slow exports could push corn prices further down. USA corn exports are down by 35%, which is a big chunk of corn.
Soybeans were down on the week and experts say that they are looking for further weakness in soybean prices. However, some experts are saying that soybean yield forecasts may be too high and that the current price weakness may just be short-term. Soymeal prices were up on the week due to continued very strong export demand. Experts feel that soymeal, like all proteins, could be moving higher.
Wheat prices have been up and down and all over the place as the market responded to whatever was happening in the Ukraine, but they did finish the week a little lower as the Ukraine seemed a little quieter – at least the grain infrastructure did. Experts say that wheat prices could continue to drift lower.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $23.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| $23.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $27.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $27.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $28.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $30.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $31.00 | Steady |
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| $42.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $33.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $45.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US Gulf China: Panamax | $44.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $25.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US PNW China: Panamax | $24.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady |
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| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $52.00 | Steady |
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| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $61.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $82.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $24.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $57.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Argentina to China: Panamax | $41.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $42.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $52.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $38.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $56.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $58.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $63.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $51.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $38.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $57.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $49.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Brazil to China: Panamax | $33.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $34.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $38.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $48.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $67.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $62.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $38.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $59.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea freight
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | Russia $44 Ukraine $57 |
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| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | Russia $60 Ukraine $77 |
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| Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | Russia $35 Ukraine $56 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $17 Russia $41 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $15 Russia $37 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $36 Russia $65 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia $32 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $23 Russia $49 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $22 Russia $48 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia $53 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $24 Russia $50 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $39 Russia $62 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $15 Russia $40 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 |
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| Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $60.00 | Steady |
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| Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady |
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| Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $62.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1110 | Up 132 |
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| Baltic Capesize Index | 1830 | Up 388 |
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| Baltic Panamax Index | 975 | Up 51 |
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| Baltic Supramax Index | 726 | Down 32 |
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| Baltic Handisize Index | 396 | Down 4 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 1323 | Up 33 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2023/October 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 270<<300 Nov |
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| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 350<<370 Nov |
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| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 210/215 |
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| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 240/245 |
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| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 240/245 |
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| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 267/270 |
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| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 330/335 |
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| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 220/225 |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 250/255 |
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| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 260/265 |
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| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 200/210 |
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| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 235/240 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 235/240 |
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| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 265/270 |
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| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 215/220 |
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| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 230/235 |
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| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 270/275 |
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| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 215/220 |
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| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 210/215 |
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| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 190/195 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 265/270 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 270/275 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 535>>495 Nov |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 565>>525 Nov |
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| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 540>>490 Nov |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 535/540 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 495>>485 Nov |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 590>>545 Nov |
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| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 560.565 |
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| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 550/555 |
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| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 515/520 Ukraine |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 650/670 |
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| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 250/255 |
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| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 265/270 |
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DDGS prices for export were steady this week as were corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed. There doesn't look to be a lot of export buying interest with trade reports saying buyers are waiting for lower prices.
According to Egypt port information a shipment of 15,000 m/t of Brazil DDGS has just arrived. This may be the first shipment of Brazil DDGS to Egypt. One wonders if we will see Brazil DDGS shipments to Turkey which is a much larger DDGS market.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
There has still been no announcement on the new fishing quota for the South Region of Peru. Trade reports say this should be announced next week.
Also, there is still no word on a possible, very short, North/Central fishing season. Perhaps there will be some word from the government next week.
Fishmeal prices in China seem to have calmed down for a little while. Demand has slowed somewhat and according to trade reports there is very little left to sell until new stocks arrive from non-Peru origins. According to MSI-Ceres, new stocks from other origins are a little higher than daily off-take from China port stocks.
Local China fishmeal production begins in September which, as usual, will offset some import demand.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,265 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,900 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 2,135 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 2,135 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,225 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein standard steam | No prices |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | No prices |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | No prices | 2200/2220 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | No prices | 2250/2770 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | No prices | 2300/2320 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,500/5,600 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 8,000/8,100 | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
