Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
Corporate Head Office: 1st Floor, Building A, Caves Corporate Center,
Blake Road and West Bay Street, Nassau, Bahamas.
Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT October 29, 2022
Except for soymeal, grain prices were lower this week in the US --- corn prices were unchanged to a little lower while soybeans dropped by USD 3 or 4 m/t while soymeal moved higher by USD 5 to 7 m/t. All US wheat prices were lower by close to USD 8 m/t.
Trade reports say that wheat was lower on disappointing export sales and on the improved rainfall in Argentina. The US too saw good rainfall in the main wheat areas which should be of great benefit to the winter wheat crop. Experts seem to feel that US wheat prices have the potential to go lower.
While soybeans did not rally this week the experts seem to feel that there is potential there for higher prices. Soymeal prices were very strong on Friday and some trade reports were saying that we may see new high price levels for soymeal next week.
Corn prices are seeing quite a bit of harvest prices pressure with about 75% of the harvest completed. Improvement in the Mississippi River should lead to some weakness in FOB NOLA prices in coming days as river barge rates should fall with the transit improvements. Also, Mexico's move to buying GMO corn – 50% in 2022/23 and 100% in 2024 – could be long term bearish for US corn prices. However, Mexico may find it difficult to replace GMO corn in its import program as there are limited sources for 100% non-GMO corn.
The Mississippi River situation is improving and hopefully the premium for nearby shipments will disappear shortly as river logistics get back close too normal.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
All freight rates have been reviewed and corrected where needed. The rates are based on our in-house information and data from several other sources.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $43/44.00 | Corrected |
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| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Corrected |
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| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $44/45.00 | Corrected |
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| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $40/41.00 | Corrected |
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| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $42/43.00 | Corrected |
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| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Corrected |
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| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $45/46.00 | Corrected |
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| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $40/41.00 | Corrected |
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| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Corrected |
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| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | N/A | Corrected |
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| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Corrected |
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| US Gulf China: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Corrected |
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| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $37/36.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW China: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Steady |
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| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $46/47.00 | Corrected |
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| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $50/51.00 | Corrected |
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| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $49/59.00 | Corrected |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30/31.00 | Up $3.00 |
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| France/Germany to Bangladesh | N/A |
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| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Corrected |
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| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $29/30.00 | Corrected |
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| France/Germany to India: Panamax | N/A |
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| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Corrected |
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| France/Germany to Jordan | $36/37.00 | Corrected |
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| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29/30.00 | Up $3.00 |
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| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Corrected |
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| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33/34.00 | Corrected |
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| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $54/55.00 | Corrected |
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| Argentina to China: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Corrected |
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| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Corrected |
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| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $53/54.00 | Corrected |
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| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $56/57.00 | Corrected |
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| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Corrected |
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| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Corrected |
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| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $66/67.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Corrected |
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| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $54/55.00 | Corrected |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $57/58.00 | Corrected |
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| Brazil to China: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Corrected |
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| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Corrected |
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| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Corrected |
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| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Corrected |
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| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $56/57.00 | Corrected |
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| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | N/A |
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| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | N/A |
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| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $66/67.00 | Corrected |
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| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Corrected |
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| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Corrected |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $26/27.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $32/33.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $27/28.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1534 | Down 285 |
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| Baltic Capesize Index | 1670 | Down 401 |
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| Baltic Panamax Index | 1817 | Down 327 |
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| Baltic Supramax Index | 1483 | Down 195 |
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| Baltic Handisize Index | 897 | Down 64 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 3340 | Down 89 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2022/January 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 371>> 363 February |
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| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 419>> 411 February |
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| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 275/285 |
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| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 310/320 |
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| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 320>>310 February |
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| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 339/342 |
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| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 380>>360 February |
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| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 280>>276 February |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 305/308 |
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| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 315/320 |
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| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 280/285 |
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| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 285/290 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 340>>325 February |
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| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 345>>340 February |
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| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 280/285 |
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| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 300/305 |
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| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 345/348 |
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| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 280/285 |
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| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 295/300 February |
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| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 285/290 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 280/290 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 375/380 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 530>>510 February |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 565<<545 February |
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| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | No prices |
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| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 510>>470 February |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | No prices |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 505>>475 February |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 605>>580 February |
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| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 585>>555 February |
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| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 605>>555 February |
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| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 820/830 m/t |
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| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 285/295 m/t |
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| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 345>>335 m/t January |
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DDGS export prices continue to be affected by the problems in the Mississippi River which has made barge transit more difficult and pushed nearby prices higher. According to the US Grains Council weekly report prices to NOLA are up by as much as USD 11 m/t with CNF prices up by USD 10 to 15 m/t.
Both corn gluten feed and meal did see a fall in prices this week as supply has caught up with export demand and domestic USA prices have slipped a little.
Prices for corn byproducts are not expected to go much lower with the trend being steady to higher.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The IFFO meeting was held in Lima Peru this last week and reports say that new business was limited as both sellers and buyers are being careful prior to the next season. There was some business done with prices up by about USD 20 m/t but the volume was small. Next year's IFFO 61st conference will be held in Cape Town, South Africa.
Presales for the next fishing season stand at about 200,000 m/t.
Speculation on the next quota ranges from 2.0 mm/t to 2.2 mm/t – or perhaps more.
Total fishmeal exports by Peru to the end of September are at 960,000 m/t with 828,000 m/t going to Asia --- mainly China with 761,000 m/t. 66,000 m/t have been shipped to Europe so gar this year. Peru remains the largest fishmeal supplier to China with about a 46% share of imports followed by Vietnam with 18% and Russia, Mauritania, Thailand and Chile with about 5% each.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,100 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,650 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,670 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,750 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,020 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1460/1480 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1510/1530 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1560/1580 m/t | 1600/1620 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1610/1630 m/t | 1640/1660 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1660/1680 m/t | 1660/1680 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 3900/4000 | 3700/3800 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 4400/4500 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
