Saturday, May 28, 2022

Weekly Report May 28, 2022

 
HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   wbacon@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    

 

Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564   

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT May 28, 2022

 

Monday is a holiday in the USA with all grain markets closed for the day which normally means that the Friday before a long weekend is a day of covering open positions, taking profits and making sure that risks are avoided.

 

Corn and wheat had a strong Friday as traders covered their short positions before the holiday. Corn prices still ended lower on the week and volume on corn futures was below average as everyone rushed off for the weekend.

 

On the fundamentals side of things, USA corn planting is catching up but still has a way to go. Wet weather is still seen in the northern corn area which is holding up planting again this week. Spring wheat planting in the US is also being delayed by the wet weather which is helping to push spring wheat new crop prices higher. Spring wheat planting so far is far behind where it normally is.

 

Soybeans too are seeing slower planting but as beans are planted a little later the effect will probably not be as bad as with wheat and corn. Soybeans were also pushed higher by the strength in soymeal prices. World oilseed supplies are seen to be quite tight which should continue to keep soybean prices up at high levels.  

 

There doesn't seem to be much reason to expect any seriously lower prices for any grain, oilseed or protein item – at least not before we get into new crop in the USA and perhaps not even then.

 

I have stopped showing the Russia export tax numbers as this info is freely available everywhere.

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.

 

US Gulf to Europe: Panamax

$36/37.00

Down $1.00

x

US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t

$36/36.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t

$74/75.00

Steady

X

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$74/75.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t

$75/76.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Morocco: Handi

$75/76.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$76/77.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$64/65.00

Steady

X

US Gulf other Med: Handi

$77/78.00

Steady

X

US Gulf South Africa: Handi

$60/61.00

Steady

X

US Gulf to India: Panamax

$70/71.00

Steady

X

US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax

$75/76.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$83/84.00

Steady

X

US Gulf China: Panamax

$82/83.00

Steady

X

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$65/66.00

Steady

X

US PNW Egypt: Panamax

$75/76.00

Steady

X

US PNW Philippines: Panamax

$54/55.00

Steady

X

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$47/48.00

Steady

X

US PNW China: Panamax

$46/47.00

Steady

X

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$62/63.00

Steady

X

US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t

$68/69.00

Steady

X

US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t

$69/70.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: Handi

$27/28.00

Down $1.00

X

France/Germany to Bangladesh

$65/66.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to China: Panamax

$74/75.00

Down $3.00

X

France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax

$34/35.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to India: Panamax

$65/66.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Iran: Panamax

$65/66.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Jordan

$55/56.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Morocco: Handi

$26/27.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$88/89.00

Up $1.00

X

France/Germany to South Africa: Handi

$45/46.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Turkey: Handi

$38/39.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Yemen: Handi

$63/64.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: Handi

$68/69.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to China: Panamax

$78/79.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Japan: Panamax

$77/78.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Egypt: Panamax

$73/74.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Europe: Panamax

$64/65.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Morocco: Handi

$66/67.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Libya: Handi

$68/69.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Jordan: Panamax

$60/61.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$94/95.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Iran: Panamax

$66/67.00

Steady

X

Argentina to India: Panamax

$64/65.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax

$69/70.00

Down $2.00

X

Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax

$60/61.00

Steady

X

Argentina to South Africa: Panamax

$33/34.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Kenya: Handi

$59/60.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Spain: Panamax

$64/65.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Tunisia: Handi

$68/69.00

Up $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$70/71.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to China: Panamax

$71/72.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Japan: Panamax

$70/71.00

Steady

X

Brazil to South Korea: Panamax

$66/67.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Europe: Panamax

$67/68.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to Morocco: Handi

$69/70.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to Iran: Panamax

$62/63.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax

$66.67.00

Down $2.00

X

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$94/95.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to Spain: Panamax

$67/68.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax

$80/81.00

Up $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia

 

 

 

 

Black Sea to China: Panamax

$66/67.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax

$68/69.00

Up $4.00

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000

$28/29.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000

$31/32.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Iran: Panamax

$61/62.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Europe: Panamax

$30/31.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Morocco – Handi

$34/35.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi

$33/34.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax

$39/40.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Libya – Handi

$35/36.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax

$66/67.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Turkey – Handi

$28/29.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to South Africa – Handi

$57/58.00

Steady

x

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

2681

Down 608

X

Baltic Capesize Index

2818

Down 1567

x

Baltic Panamax Index

3048

Down 322

x

Baltic Supramax Index

2796

Down 4

X

Baltic Handisize Index

1647

Down 15

x

 

 

 

 

Global Container Index - Freightos

7851

Down 615

x

   

 

 

 


 

 

 

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2022/August 2022

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

 USD 450>>480 October

X

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

 USD 502>>520 October   

X

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 No prices

X

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 424/427   

X

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

 USD 405/410

X

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

 USD 450>>435 October  

X

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 485/490   

X

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 365/370

X

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 425/430

X

   Barley, feed, Argentina, up river

 USD 385/390

X

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 375/385

X

   Barley, feed, Australia

 USD 385/390

X

 

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

 USD 340/345

X

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 375>>360 September

X

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

 USD 318>>306 September  

X

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 320/325  

X

   Corn, FOB France – Atlantic

 USD 388/392

X

   Corn, FOB Romania

 USD 355/360

X

   Corn, FOB Russia

 No prices

X

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

 No prices

X

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD 320/330

X

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

 USD 385/390   

X

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 515/520

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 550/555

X

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot

 USD 535/550   

X

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 495/500  

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot

 USD 540/550  

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 495/500  

X

 

 

 

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 690>>630 September

X

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 670>>620 September

X

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 690>>650 September  

X

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 No prices

X

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 815/825 m/t August

X

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 305/315 m/t August

X

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 330/335 m/t Sept.  

x

 

 

 

 

DDGS prices in the USA moved lower this week as supply has increased due to higher ethanol production levels. Prices for August shipment are down by about USD 10 m/t but there are very few chances to ship anything prior to August. Exporters are fully booked, and container freight is impossible to find before August.

Both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed were steady on the week but there have been some slightly more aggressive offers seen for CGM in August. There has been quite a bit of shopping around for CGM by buyers in Egypt but so far only looking and not buying as prices over USD 920 m/t are still too rich for the Egypt market.

 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

The catch was lower this week due to a number of mini-bans, but fishing still reached just over 110,000 m/t bringing the total to date up to 755,000 m/t --- so just a shade over 2.0 million m/t to go on  the north/central quota. Fishmeal production is estimated to be about 168,000 m/t with fishoil at about 15,000 m/t. The southern region of Peru has now landed about 167,000 m/t against the quota of 486,500 m/t leaving about 320,000 m/t until the quota expires on June 30.

 

Trade reports say that the level of juvenile fish is still quite high so more fishing bans are expected.

 

MSI Ceres made the comment this week that the trade feels the total north/central quota will not be landed and that the estimates of the final catch do range as low as 1.8 million m/t.

 

There hasn't been much new sales activity this week as major buyers are waiting to see how the fishing goes and how the off take in China is. Since China represents over 80% of Peru's fishmeal exports everything that happens in China is of interest to the fishmeal market. Looking at China's fishmeal imports so far in 2022, Peru represents 51% of the total fishmeal imports followed by Vietnam at 9% and Russia at 7.5%. China has imported 527,000 m/t of fishmeal to the end of April, down by 11% from last year.

 


 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Herring fishmeal

72% protein

2,080

Danish fishmeal

64% protein

1,655

Peru fishmeal

64% protein

1,750

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,800

Iceland fishmeal

70% protein

2,065

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein standard steam

1550/1570 m/t

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1600/1620 m/t

 

   67% protein 120 TVN

1650/1670 m/t

1670/1690

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1700/1720 m/t

1720/1740

   68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN

1750/1770 m/t

1770/1790

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

3200/3250

 

   Fish oil, crude drums

3300/3350

 

   Fish oil, flexi tank

3400/3450

 

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

3700/3800

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees, or affiliates.

 

Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon