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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT May 28, 2022
Monday is a holiday in the USA with all grain markets closed for the day which normally means that the Friday before a long weekend is a day of covering open positions, taking profits and making sure that risks are avoided.
Corn and wheat had a strong Friday as traders covered their short positions before the holiday. Corn prices still ended lower on the week and volume on corn futures was below average as everyone rushed off for the weekend.
On the fundamentals side of things, USA corn planting is catching up but still has a way to go. Wet weather is still seen in the northern corn area which is holding up planting again this week. Spring wheat planting in the US is also being delayed by the wet weather which is helping to push spring wheat new crop prices higher. Spring wheat planting so far is far behind where it normally is.
Soybeans too are seeing slower planting but as beans are planted a little later the effect will probably not be as bad as with wheat and corn. Soybeans were also pushed higher by the strength in soymeal prices. World oilseed supplies are seen to be quite tight which should continue to keep soybean prices up at high levels.
There doesn't seem to be much reason to expect any seriously lower prices for any grain, oilseed or protein item – at least not before we get into new crop in the USA and perhaps not even then.
I have stopped showing the Russia export tax numbers as this info is freely available everywhere.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $36/36.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $74/75.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $74/75.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $75/76.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $75/76.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $76/77.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $64/65.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $77/78.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf to India: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $83/84.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $82/83.00 | Steady | X |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Steady | X |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Steady | X |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
US PNW China: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $69/70.00 | Steady | X |
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France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
France/Germany to Bangladesh | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $74/75.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to India: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Jordan | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $88/89.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
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Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $68/69.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $78/79.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $77/78.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $73/74.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $66/67.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $94/95.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to India: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $59/60.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $68/69.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $70/71.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $69/70.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66.67.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $94/95.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $80/81.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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Black Sea to China: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady | x |
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Baltic Dry Index | 2681 | Down 608 | X |
Baltic Capesize Index | 2818 | Down 1567 | x |
Baltic Panamax Index | 3048 | Down 322 | x |
Baltic Supramax Index | 2796 | Down 4 | X |
Baltic Handisize Index | 1647 | Down 15 | x |
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Global Container Index - Freightos | 7851 | Down 615 | x |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2022/August 2022
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 450>>480 October | X |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 502>>520 October | X |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | No prices | X |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 424/427 | X |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 405/410 | X |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 450>>435 October | X |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 485/490 | X |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 365/370 | X |
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Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 425/430 | X |
Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 385/390 | X |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 375/385 | X |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 385/390 | X |
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Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 340/345 | X |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 375>>360 September | X |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 318>>306 September | X |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 320/325 | X |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 388/392 | X |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 355/360 | X |
Corn, FOB Russia | No prices | X |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | No prices | X |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 320/330 | X |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 385/390 | X |
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Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 515/520 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 550/555 | X |
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 535/550 | X |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 495/500 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 540/550 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 495/500 | X |
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Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 690>>630 September | X |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 670>>620 September | X |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 690>>650 September | X |
Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices | X |
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Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 815/825 m/t August | X |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 305/315 m/t August | X |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 330/335 m/t Sept. | x |
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DDGS prices in the USA moved lower this week as supply has increased due to higher ethanol production levels. Prices for August shipment are down by about USD 10 m/t but there are very few chances to ship anything prior to August. Exporters are fully booked, and container freight is impossible to find before August.
Both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed were steady on the week but there have been some slightly more aggressive offers seen for CGM in August. There has been quite a bit of shopping around for CGM by buyers in Egypt but so far only looking and not buying as prices over USD 920 m/t are still too rich for the Egypt market.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The catch was lower this week due to a number of mini-bans, but fishing still reached just over 110,000 m/t bringing the total to date up to 755,000 m/t --- so just a shade over 2.0 million m/t to go on the north/central quota. Fishmeal production is estimated to be about 168,000 m/t with fishoil at about 15,000 m/t. The southern region of Peru has now landed about 167,000 m/t against the quota of 486,500 m/t leaving about 320,000 m/t until the quota expires on June 30.
Trade reports say that the level of juvenile fish is still quite high so more fishing bans are expected.
MSI Ceres made the comment this week that the trade feels the total north/central quota will not be landed and that the estimates of the final catch do range as low as 1.8 million m/t.
There hasn't been much new sales activity this week as major buyers are waiting to see how the fishing goes and how the off take in China is. Since China represents over 80% of Peru's fishmeal exports everything that happens in China is of interest to the fishmeal market. Looking at China's fishmeal imports so far in 2022, Peru represents 51% of the total fishmeal imports followed by Vietnam at 9% and Russia at 7.5%. China has imported 527,000 m/t of fishmeal to the end of April, down by 11% from last year.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,080 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,655 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,750 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,800 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,065 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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65% protein standard steam | 1550/1570 m/t |
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67% protein 150 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t |
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67% protein 120 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t | 1670/1690 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1700/1720 m/t | 1720/1740 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1750/1770 m/t | 1770/1790 |
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Fish oil, crude bulk | 3200/3250 |
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Fish oil, crude drums | 3300/3350 |
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Fish oil, flexi tank | 3400/3450 |
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Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 3700/3800 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon