Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
Corporate Head Office: 1st Floor, Building A, Caves Corporate Center,
Blake Road and West Bay Street, Nassau, Bahamas.
Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT August 27, 2022
This was another up week for grains and oilseeds as USA markets were looking more at what was happening in the country rather than concentrating on Black Sea events.
Most USA estimated crop yield fissure were reduced this week poor crop conditions were reported in some areas. Corn yields look to be down significantly while soybean exports are in question.
The USDA tried to switch to a new export reporting system this week which didn't go well at all. So, we are without accurate export number for the past week --- probably not the end of the world but enough to upset some traders who live by numbers.
The corn crop looks to be facing more high temperatures and low rainfall which certainly will not help the crop yields. We are getting so late in the crop year that there is not much that can now improve the crop condition.
There were quite a few comments that new crop soybeans and soymeal are underpriced and that there is no good reason for such a high premium on the old crop. Some experts did say that rather than have old crop prices drop the new crop soybeans should move higher since the fundamentals for soybeans are very bullish for the new crop.
Wheat prices too were higher, especially for winter wheat, as there are concerns that the lack of rainfall will leave the soil much to dry for the winter wheat crop while at the same time the dryness has certainly not helped US spring wheat yields.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $32/33.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $60/61.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $61/62.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $61/62.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $63/64.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $64/65.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $65/66.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $60/61.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US Gulf China: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US PNW China: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $63/64.00 | Steady |
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| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $93/94.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $93/94.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $27/28.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $68/69.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $79/80.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Jordan | $55/56.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $26/27.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $96/97.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $38/39.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $80/81.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to China: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $83/84.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $79/80.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $82/83.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $105/106.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $80/81.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $83/84.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to China: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $77/78.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $82/83.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $105/106.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $77/78.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $90/91.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $27/28.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $30/31.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $33/34.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $32/33.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $35/36.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $27/28.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1082 | Down 197 |
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| Baltic Capesize Index | 411 | Down 345 |
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| Baltic Panamax Index | 1372 | Down 316 |
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| Baltic Supramax Index | 1744 | Up 151 |
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| Baltic Handisize Index | 933 | Down 27 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 5703 | Down 117 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR September 2022/November 2022
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 340 -- 353 December |
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| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 390 -- 400 December |
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| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | No prices |
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| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 310/315 |
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| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 350>>330 December |
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| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 325>>310 December |
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| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 400>>320 December |
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| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 310>>300 December |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 305/310 |
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| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 330/335 |
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| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | No prices |
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| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 300/305 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 310/315 |
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| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 335/340 |
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| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 275/285 |
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| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 295/305 |
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| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 325>>315 December |
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| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 310/315 |
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| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 310/315 |
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| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 300/305 Constanza |
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| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 275/285 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 320/325 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 595>>520 December |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 630>>555 December |
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| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | No prices |
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| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 520>>490 December |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 520/525 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 490>>485 December |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 640>>590 December |
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| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 630>>615 December |
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| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 630>>615 December |
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| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 835/840 m/t November |
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| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 275/285 m/t November |
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| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 315/325 m/t November |
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Corn and soymeal prices were both up strongly this week which helped to move corn byproducts prices higher. Corn gluten meal was up by about USD 20 m/t while DDGS was up by about USD 10 m/t. Only prices for corn gluten feed seemed to be steady.
Buyers have been hoping that lower new crop corn prices would lead to a drop in prices for corn byproducts but that has not happened and all market prices today are based on new crop corn. There is still a significant premium for old crop soybeans and soymeal, but export buyers are all looking further out where prices should be a little easier – but so far are not.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
So, here we are again with another fishmeal report --- we had quite a few readers asking for the fishmeal information to be included once again which made me reconsider --- it is back.
The catch in the South of Peru is now up to 61,000 m/t against the quota of 486,500 m/t. Fishmeal yield is estimated at about 13,500 m/t with fishoil at 1,350 m/t.
According to this weeks MSI Ceres report, the exports of fishmeal by Peru to the end of July total 710,000 m/t with 87.9% going to Asia (81.1% to China). The only major non-Asia destination is Germany which took 4.1% of exports or about 29,000 m/t.
People in the fishmeal business are starting to speculate on the next fishing quota but there are a lot of concerns about what will happen in China with the poor economy. When 81% of your exports go to one country then you do need to worry about that countries finances.
With little or nothing left to sell in Peru the prices shown are just the best guess of about where the market should be.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,025 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,610 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,740 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,785 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,080 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1540/1560 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1590/1610 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1640/1660 m/t | 1650/1670 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1690/1710 m/t | 1700/1720 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1740/1760 m/t | 1750/1770 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 4000/4100 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 4600/4700 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
