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WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT September 29, 2018
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Price wise, things were not all that exciting this week – except perhaps for wheat prices. Corn, soybeans and soymeal shower very little change on the week while wheat prices did drop between USD 4 to 6 m/t.
The USDA stocks report was out this week and was a little bearish for corn as stocks were higher than expected by the trade. Some experts say that this is due to lower feed use for corn in the summer months. With another 84% of the corn drop in the US still to be harvested, we are going to see a lot of corn shortly – but US corn exports are very strong since export prices are good and only the US has corn to ship – for now.
There is some concern in the US about weather delaying the corn harvest and some possible damage to the corn crop, but this doesn't seem to be much of a price or supply concern at present.
Soybeans too had higher stock numbers in the USDA report but most in the trade feel that this will have little effect on prices since China problems are driving soybean prices and a few extra beans are not going to make a bearish situation much worse.
As with corn, there are some concerns that the wet US weather will delay the harvest and result in crop losses in some areas – but this doesn't look to be too serious. As mentioned above, China is the price driver for US soybeans.
Wheat prices were up a little on Friday as the USDA stocks report was perhaps a little bullish, at least not as bearish as corn and beans. But overall for the week, wheat prices were lower. Exports for the year for US wheat are down by 8% which adds to the bearishness
Crop Situation and Condition – USA --- USDA report September 24, 2018
| USA
| Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Good % | Very Good % |
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| Corn | 4 | 8 | 19 | 47 | 22 |
| Sorghum | 5 | 11 | 29 | 45 | 10 |
| Soybeans | 3 | 7 | 22 | 49 | 19 |
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| Harvested | This week % | Last week % | This week 2017 | Average 2013/17 |
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| Corn | 16 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
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| Sorghum | 30 | 26 | 32 | 32 |
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| Soybeans | 14 | 6 | 9 | 8 |
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| Wheat, winter | 28 | 13 | 22 | 26 |
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| France
| Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Good % | Very Good % |
| Condition |
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| Corn | 5 | 13 | 23 | 53 | 5 |
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Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45/46.00 | Steady | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $16/17.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $33/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.50/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $33/34.00 | Up $5.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $50/51.00 | Up $5.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $11/12.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1540 | Up 127 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2000 | Up 160 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1695 | Up 109 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 1194 | Up 19 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 629 | Up 12 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR October 2018/December 2018
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 216/220 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA | USD 234/244 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 211/215 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 220/224 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 221/225 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 236/238 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 223/228 Jan/Feb 2019 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 198/204 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 237/239 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD no prices | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 230/234 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | x |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 158/162 | x |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 173/178 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 163/166 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 172/175 | x |
| Corn, FOB France - Atlantic | USD 209/211 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 169/172 | x |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 180/184 | x |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 163/167 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 154/158 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 177/179 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 352/356 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 377/381 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 374/378 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 340/344 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 374/377 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 345/350 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 317/321 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 386/390 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 400/403 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 358/362 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 520>>500 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 170>>165 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 185/189 | x |
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This week's USGC report was saying that international demand for DDGS at current very low prices may cause the trend to change to higher price levels. DDGS, along with corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal, are certainly a bargain these days – especially when you look at international prices.
The trade feels that the current low prices are going to attract a good deal of export interest and as the saying goes – "the best solution to low prices is low prices". There is nothing like low prices to perk up demand.
The USDA report this week has domestic USA prices showing steady for DDGS, steady for corn gluten feed and about USD 6 m/t lower for corn gluten meal.
The feeling for corn byproduct prices is that we are probably at, or close to, the lows of the year – this because corn is probably at the same point and from here on in it would not be too surprising to see corn prices and byproduct prices start to move higher. I think that, if I was a buyer, I would be locking in some positions for last quarter of 2018 before prices moved higher.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 330/340 m/t CNF Asia USD 360/370 m/t CNF Asia USD 550/560 m/t CNF Asia USD 810/820 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 450/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 445/455 to Indonesia USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 580/590 m/t CNF Asia USD 810/820 m/t CNF Asia |
Prices for animal proteins from Australia continued to drop this week as the ban on OZ meat and bone meal to Indonesia is really hurting exporters. The weakness in OZ prices is certainly a boon to other importing countries in Asia.
US export prices for meat and bone meal were steady on the week but poultry meal moved a little lower. With poultry meal, it is a case of very large current production and even though demand is good there is just too much supply.
In the US domestic market, meat and bone meal prices were steady while both feathermeal and poultry meal moved lower.
The Jacobsen Report was commenting that MBM prices look to be able to move a little higher but that overall animal protein prices could slip a little lower.
With US MBM exports replacing some OZ exports into Indonesia, US prices to Asia may not drop, since Asia is a main US export buyer of MBM.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
According to reports from Peru the IMARPE research cruise has finished and results are waited. Rumours are that the results were very good and that the spawning season has finished. The IMARPE report is said to be expected by the end of October and will include the results for all the various cruises.
It looks like there could be an El Nino event in Peru – but only a mild one – in early 2019, but this may not have any effect on the fishing season – depending on the actual event timing.
The Feed Conferences in China are over, and stories are swirling around about how much business was done. The trade doesn't seem to feel that there was a great deal of business done – perhaps buyers are waiting for the new quota and expect lower prices while the sellers are holding out for higher prices. The trade does say that the pre-season fishmeal sales look to be in the 150,000 m/t range – some say higher, some lower.
The IFFO Conference in Rome is coming up on October 15th --- perhaps there will be more business done in Rome than was done at the China conferences.
For now, we are just all waiting for some results from IMARPE and the new quota.
All is expected to stay quiet for Peruvian fishmeal until we get some news.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,810 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,500 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,475 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,525 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,800 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1280/1300 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1330/1350 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1480/1500 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1530/1550 m/t | 1530/1550 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1580/1600 m/t | 1600/1620 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1630/1650 m/t | 1620/1640 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1500/1550 | 1400/1450 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1550/1600 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1650/1700 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1750/1800 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2018 Wayne S. Bacon
