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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT June 24, 2023
In addition to the USA drought, we had the Russia situation to get the market excited. Is it a coup in Russia or not – probably not, but what was it. Well, it was enough to get wheat prices moving higher.
It will be very interesting on Monday to see what the rainfall has been or will be and what exactly has happened in Russia.
So, looking at the week, on Friday corn prices dropped by about USD 13 m/t but were only down by USD 4 on the week. New crop US soybeans dropped USD 11 m/t on Friday, ending the week down by USD 13 m/t. Soymeal was down by USD 18 m/t on Friday and about USD 7 m/t down on the week. US wheat prices didn’t have much of a drop on Friday with Soft Red Winter finishing the week up by USD 16 m/t with US spring wheat up by USD 7 m/t.
Monday should be a very exciting day for grain/oilseed/protein meal prices.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $26.00 | Down $1.00 | |
$26.00 | Down $1.00 | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $29.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $29.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $30.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $32.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $33.00 | Steady | |
$44.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $35.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $49.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $30.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $27.00 | Steady | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $26.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $61.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Bangladesh | $82.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $24.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to India: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $57.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $44.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $56.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $56.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $58.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to India: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $51.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $57.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $53.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $36.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $52.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $67.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | Russia $54 Ukraine $58 | ||
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | Russia $60 Ukraine $67 | ||
Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | Russia $47 Ukraine $56 | ||
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $21 Russia $45 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $21 Russia $34 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $48 Russia $60 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia $32 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $29 Russia $39 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $28 Russia $38 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia $53 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $30 Russia $40 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $44 Russia $53 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $20 Russia $30 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | ||
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $24.00 | Down $3.00 | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $63.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $59.00 | Up $4.00 | |
Baltic Dry Index | 1240 | Up 164 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 2080 | Up 552 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1327 | Up 134 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 743 | Up 7 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 455 | Down 9 | |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 1297 | Down 144 | |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR July 2023/September 2023
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 290<<305 Oct | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 350<<375 Oct | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 205/210 | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 230/235 | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 255>>240 Oct | |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 2624/267 | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 335/340 | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 210/215 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 240/245 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 240/245 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 175/180 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 230/235 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 260/265 | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 290/295 | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 220/225 | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 225/230 | |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 279/282 | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 220/225 | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 210/220 | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 205>>190 Oct | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 250/260 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 305>>295 Sep | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 480/485 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 510/515 | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 460/465 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 500/505 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 460/465 | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 565>>510 Oct | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 560<<550 Oct | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 495/500 | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 470/480 Ukraine | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 680/690 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 230/235 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 270>>260 Sep | |
The corn price rally during the week pushed DDGS FOB NOLA prices up strongly – up by about USD 10 m/t with some sources saying as much as USD 15 m/t higher. Corn gluten meal didn’t move higher with suppliers saying that stocks are good while export and domestic business has been weak. Corn gluten meal this week did look quite attractive for export.
The rally and then drop back prices of corn this week has led to much some higher prices but the improvement in the USA weather situation and the need rainfall could pull prices lower next week.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
There is still some hope in the Peru fishing industry that we will get to see something of a fishing season for the anchovies. Some in the trade think that the latest survey will show a much better situation than the last --- fingers crossed.
Trade reports say that there is no fishmeal available in Peru and that the existing 100.000 m/t of booked business will have to find an agreeable way to move to next season unless there is a July announcement of a partial fishing season.
This is really a bad financial situation for the fishmeal industry and the fishermen and fishing fleets that count on this season. It is going to be very difficult for the entire fishmeal related industries and personnel.
Trade reports also say that fishmeal prices in China are now at record levels. The Chinee market certainly knows what it means not to have any new Peru supply for a few months. They can’t easily replace the Peru supplies from other origins. China normally gets close to 50% of its fishmeal needs from Peru --- about 355,000 m/t from January to May 2023.
As you can see below the prices for Chile fishmeal has moved much higher as buyers move down the road from Peru to try to cover their needs. No change in Peru prices as there is nothing to sell.
PERU “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,140 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,830 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 2,010 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 2,030 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,100 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 1860/1870 m/t | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 1910/1920 m/t | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 1960/1970 m/t | 2120/2140 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2010/2020 m/t | 2150/2170 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2060/2070 m/t | 2180/2200 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,500/5,600 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 6,000/6,100 | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
