Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT April 26, 2014
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Corporate Office: Trident Corporate Services (Bahamas) Limited, Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce,
One Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
SECTION : FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Corn prices moved higher this week as US weather became the main pricing factor. There was concern over the continuing cold weather is parts of the corn area of the US but most experts say that while cold weather may delay planting a little it takes very little time to catch up. US farmers seem to be able to plant their entire corn crop in just the blink of an eye. Actual planting is probably getting close to 30% which is not far off where it should be.
The situation in the Ukraine is also a serious factor for US corn exports and, as we have seen in recent weeks, US corn exports to North Africa and the Middle East are moving higher very quickly as buyers shy away from the Black Sea. Not that there has been any drop in shipments from Ukraine ports, just that major traders are concerned about protecting their supply and are looking to the US.
The International Grains Council report that was issued on Friday forecasts a drop in 2014 world corn production from 2013 of 24 mm/t this is 11 mm/t larger a drop than in their March report. However, they forecasts no drop in world corn trade or in consumption as the drop in production will just reduce stocks on hand.
Old crop soybean prices slipped lower on the week while new crop prices moved just a little higher. The sale of additional South American soybeans to the US will help to reduce the current tightness in the market and is the main cause for old crop prices dropping. Some of the Brazil soybean orders cancelled by China are said to be flowing into the USA.
New crop prices have moved higher due to cold weather concerns in the US and the effect on planting and soil temperatures. So far soybean planting is only at about 3% but this is very close to what one would expect this early in the season. On the other side of things, Brazil reports that their soybean harvest is 94% completed, just about on average.
As with corn, soybean prices will become more and more US weather driven in coming days and, other than China, weather will once again be the major market factor.
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 | $17.00 | Down $1.00 |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $29/31.00 | Steady |
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 |
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $30/32.00 | Steady |
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000 | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 |
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | New |
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $31/33.00 | Steady |
US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000 | $45/46.00 | Steady |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Down $1.00 |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Steady |
US PNW Asia: 35/45,000 m/t | $34/36.00 | Down $1.00 |
US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $2.00 |
US PNW China: 50,000+ m/t | $23/24.00 | Down $2.00 |
France to Algeria: 30,000 m/t | $25.00 | Steady |
France to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $26.00 | Steady |
France to Egypt: 30,000 m/t | $26.00 | Steady |
France to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t | $31.00 | Steady |
France to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 m/t | $38.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $23.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 | $33/34.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 | $33/34.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $43.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 |
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Europe | $25.00 | Steady |
Black Sea to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Down $1.00 |
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 |
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t | $14/15.00 | Down $1.00 |
Black Sea to East Med: coaster | $23/24.00 | Steady |
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $26/28.00 | Down $1.00 |
Baltic Dry Index | 930 | Up 37 |
Baltic Capesize Index | 1696 | Up 105 |
Baltic Panamax Index | 812 | Up 52 |
Baltic Handisize Index | 533 | Down 16 |
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 294>>284 Apr>>Jun | X |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 346>>336 Apr>>Jun | X |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 296/301 Apr/Jun | X |
Wheat, Russia 12.0 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 294/297 Apr/Jun | X |
Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port | USD 298/301 Apr/Jun | X |
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 340/355 May/July | X |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 348/355 July | x |
|
|
|
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 245/248 Apr/Jun | x |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 220/230 Jul/Aug | X |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 242/246 Apr/Jun | X |
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 267/272 | x |
Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 236>>233 May/July | x |
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 248/251 May/July | x |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 232>>225 Apr>>Jun | X |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 227/234 July/Aug new crop | X |
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 250/257 May/Jun | X |
Corn, FOB France | USD 255/260 Apr/Jun | x |
|
|
|
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 268>>251 Apr/July | x |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 185/195 Jun/Aug | x |
Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 591>>566 Apr>>Jun | X |
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 648>>611 Apr>>Jun | X |
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 590>>565 Apr>>Jun | X |
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 525>>503 May>>Jun | X |
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 578>>555 Apr>>Jun | x |
Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 520>>490 Apr>>Jun | x |
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 650/660 | x |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 578>>568 Apr>>Jun | X |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 532>>523 May/July | X |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 537>>514 Apr>>Jun | X |
Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD 593>>581 Apr>>June | X |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD no offers | x |
Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 895/910 m/t May/July | x |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 225/230 m/t May/July | x |
|
|
|
DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 294>>281 m/t May>>July | x |
DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asia | USD 362>>359 m/t May>>July | x |
From an export point of view the biggest change in CNF prices for corn by-products was a drop in container rates over the last few days. Demand in Asia, China in particular, for DDGS has slackened off and the demand for containers has followed. China is the major DDGS buyer in Asia but most of their new interest seems to be much later in 2014, August and later, which is softening current prices a tad. The big discount for future months DDGS supply has disappeared, although April/May supply is still quite tight.
If China's demand continues at lower levels there could be some more room for export prices to slip lower but, as we get past the US corn planting, the weather and the crop forecasts will begin to have a major effect on all corn by-product prices.
This week it has been difficult to get a good representative price on both corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal. Prices seem to be up a little from last week but this may just be due to very thin reported trading rather than an actual overall increase in market prices.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 490 m/t CNF Asia |
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 470 m/t CNF Asia |
Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 620/640 m/t CNF Asia USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia USD 860/870 m/t CNF Asia USD 1020/1040 m/t CNF Asia |
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia USD 940/950 m/t CNF Asia USD 830/850 m/t CNF Asia USD 1100/1120 m/t CNF Asia |
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 540/560 m/t |
Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 760/780 m/t |
Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 660/680 m/t |
Really nothing to report in the animal protein markets this week as the Easter holidays seem to have limited the activity – some countries were closed Thursday and Friday a week ago while others were closed Monday this week and some all three days.
Prices for animal proteins from OZ and NZ are expected to move a little higher as this time of year the supply tends to drop off as the slaughter is lower. However, the lower vegetable protein prices in coming weeks will probably limit any upward move for animal proteins. There is also the feeling in the trade that the higher fishmeal quota this season could move fishmeal prices lower and put some downward pressure on animal proteins (as you will see below the fishmeal trade is not expecting lower prices)
USA domestic meat and bone meal prices were about USD 10 m/t lower as pressure from very competitive soymeal prices was squeezing MBM out of feed formulations. Feathermeal and poultry meal prices were unchanged on the week.
Looking out a few weeks, the trend seem to be for prices for animal proteins to slip a little lower as vegetable proteins are getting more competitive each week and, except for pet food, there is little reason to expect that demand will keep prices up.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
So, off we go fishing in Peru. The announced quota of 2.53 million m/t is what people hoped for but higher than what most had expected. The only problem appears to be an expected very high level of juvenile fish (undersize) that may result in area fishing bans over the next few weeks and cause extra movement of fishing fleets. Also, the trade reports that the fleet that is currently fishing the southern quota will probably not move north at once, at least until they have completed their southern quota – no sense in leaving the south then having to return to finish the quota. There is currently about 260,000 m/t left on the 400,000 m/t southern quota.
The new 2.5 million m/t quota in the north runs until July 31st (from April 23) but will probably be finished well before July.
So far there has been no change at all in fishmeal prices just as there has been no rush to book by ant major buyers. Everyone – buyers and sellers – are just going to hang on and see how the fishing goes and where the supply/demand situation will take us. We will have to see what the industry does during the IFFO meeting in London – perhaps the order books will get filled up or perhaps it may just be more of a wait and see situation until fishing results and yields are better known. There is the chance that with smaller fish – due to the number of juveniles – that the fishmeal and oil yields could be lower than the average season but we have to wait to see.
So, so far prices are steady but trade reports seem to favor steady to higher prices rather than anything lower.
As a matter of information, the total fishmeal production year to date in 2014 for Chile, Peru, Denmark and the North Atlantic stands at 370,000 m/t, up about 3% over 2013. Needless to say Peru and Chile are the main producers with about 62% of the fishmeal production. Fishoil production for the same areas is at 107,000 m/t up from 103,000 m/t in 2013. Peru and Chile represent over 70% of the Fishoil production.
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
|
|
65 protein | 1450/1470 m/t |
65/66 protein | 1500/1520 m/t |
67 protein standard steam | 1540/1560 m/t |
67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1560/1580 m/t |
67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1580/1600 m/t |
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t |
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1620/1640 m/t |
|
|
Fish oil, crude bulk | 1950/2000 |
Fish oil, crude drums | 2150/2200 |
Fish oil, flexi tank | 2100/2150 |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2600/2800 |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
Wayne Bacon
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2014 Wayne S. Bacon