3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Phone: +33.6.8068.4564
Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT February 24, 2024
Due to Monday being a holiday this was only a four day work week, but it was still quite an exciting trading week.
Everything was lower this week except US winter wheat – corn prices were down by another USD 6 m/t, US soybeans dropped by about USD 13 m/t with soymeal down by about USD 12 m/t. US spring wheat was down by USD 3 m/t while winter wheat moved higher by about USD 4 m/t.
Corn prices are at the lowest level seen in about 3 years, pushed lower by less than wonderful US export sales and the very large South American corn crop. US corn exports in the last month are down by 30% but overall YTD corn exports are up on last year. Trade reports at the end of the week suggest that corn prices will move lower again next week ---- every trade report sees the corn market as continuing bearish until something happens. Could an increase in corn demand from the ethanol industry stop the slide lower?
Soybeans too were lower on unimpressive US soybean export numbers and of course, like corn, the South American record soybean crops. Overall US soybean exports this marketing year are down by 22% with overall soymeal exports up by 14%. Trade reports this week are pointing out just how much more expensive US soybeans are than South American and ask if US soybeans can be competitive over the next few months.
Wheat prices were lower mainly due to lower world wheat prices. Every wheat exporting country is seeing their prices slip a little every week --- just too much wheat chasing all the same world wheat business.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $27.00 | Steady | |
$27.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $30.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $30.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $31.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $40.00 | Down $2.00 | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $41.00 | Down $2.00 | |
$45.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $42.00 | Down $2.00 | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $51.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $50.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $26.00 | Steady | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $25.00 | Steady | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $0.00 | Closed | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $0.00 | Closed | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $32.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $77.00 | Down $1.00 | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $40.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $31.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $35.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $66.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $62.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $50.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $51.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $30.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $62.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $59.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $30.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $62.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $50.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $45.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $46.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $49.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $64.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $64 Russia | Ukraine $62 | |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $59 Russia | Ukraine $77 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $23 Russia | Ukraine $28 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $22 Russia | Ukraine $27 | |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $53 Russia | Ukraine $61 | |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $27 Russia | Ukraine $38 | |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $32 Russia | Ukraine $38 | |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $31 Russia | Ukraine $37 | |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $53 | |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $33 Russia | Ukraine $38 | |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $47 Russia | Ukraine $70 | |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $19 Russia | Ukraine $26 | |
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $36.00 | Down $9.00 | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $72.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $79.00 | Down $3.00 | |
Baltic Dry Index | 1866 | Up 256 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 3145 | Up 697 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1595 | Down 51 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 1189 | Up 118 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 623 | Up 51 | |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 3352 | Down 71 | |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR February 2024/April 2024
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 249>>243 June | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 260>>251 June | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 196<<200 June | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 214<<218 June | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 223<<226 June | |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 225<<230 June | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 235<<245 June | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 195/205 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 209/212 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 210/215 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 180/185 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 240/245 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 187<<195 June | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 205<<215 June | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 182<<185 June | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 190<<195 June | |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 196/199 | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 185<<190 June | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 170<<175 June | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t – Odessa port | USD 166<<170 June | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 280/290 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 237/242 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 420>>390 June | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 455>>425 June | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 400>>370 June | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 445/450 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 410>>365 June | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 440<<445 June | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 410<<415 June | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 400<<410 June | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 455<<460 June | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 570/580 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 210/220 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 245<<250 June | |
USA corn gluten meal has fallen considerably in the last couple of weeks, and we are now at the lowest level seen in many months. Export buying interest will be picking up as the prices slide lower but there probably won’t be enough export demand to move prices higher. USA CGM prices depend greatly on the domestic US demand – especially from the pet food industry.
USA DDGS export prices seem to be in a trading range of about USD 10 up or down and don’t seem to be paying much attention to what corn prices are doing. Export volumes are still quite good although container freight to some destinations is tough to arrange and quite expensive. Shipments to buyers in the Mediterranean area are the most bothered since there is no longer a direct route through the Med and the Red Sea.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
There were some comments in trade reports this week that we could see a new fishing quota shortly for the South of Peru. It seems forever since the last quota. One wonders if the government has forgotten about the south --- what about the poor fishmeal facilities in the south that have seen no raw materials for months and months.
Reports say that there is only about 5,000 m/t of fishmeal left available in Peru – not much. Prices for the better grades are moving higher for next season – probably due to Chinese buyers being a little bit back in the market. Producers are not too interested so far in selling quantities for the next fishing season. Everyone is waiting for a little news on the IMARPE cruise to help decide where supply may be for the next season --- both sellers and buyers are waiting.
It was brought to my attention this week that I had misquoted the MSICeres weekly report recently – once regarding the spread between Super Prime and Standard fishmeal and also regarding the level of fishmeal presales. Sorry MSICeres guys, the errors were not intentional. I will be more careful with any future quotes.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Standard fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,735 |
Danish standard fishmeal | 71% protein | 1,960 |
Peru fishmeal | 65% protein | 1,890 |
Chile fishmeal | 66% protein | 1,910 |
Iceland fishmeal | 71% protein | 1,970 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 1600/1620 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 1700/1720 | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 1800/1820 | 1820/1840 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1950/1970 | 1950/1970 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2100/2120 | 2100/2120 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,100/5,200 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 12,000+ | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2024 Wayne S. Bacon
