Saturday, November 10, 2018

Weekly Report - Nov 10, 2018

 
HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

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WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT November 10, 2018

 

Off to Global Grain in Geneva next week (Nov 13-15) – so if you see me say hello.

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

The USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report did hold a few surprises this week: increased China corn stocks, lower US corn yields, lower US soybean yields, higher world ending stocks for all corn, soybeans and wheat.

 

From a US futures point of view there was no change in corn or soybean prices on the week while soymeal slipped lower by about USD 5 m/t and wheat prices move USD 5 to 7 m/t lower.

 

The report of trade talks between China and the US probably gave soybean prices support as the market hopes for a trade solution. There seem to be some positive rumors on the China situation sneaking out of Washington. The trade also seemed to feel that soybean crop yields will probably be even lower than the USDA numbers in the WASDE and this too help to keep soybean prices from moving lower.

 

Corn was very quiet on the week. The WASDE didn't seem to have much effect and international reports on corn crops from both France and the Ukraine were quite positive. On the more negative side of things, US corn exports are not up where the USDA is hoping to see them, and this is the time when US corn should own the market in many corn importing countries. With the Ukraine expected to have a very good corn crop, US corn will be back having to fight the Black Sea for business in the Middle East and North Africa.  

 

Wheat price slipped lower mainly due to low exports and worries that very good Black Sea wheat crops will once again make exports tough for US wheat. However, some expert do feel that the USDA is overestimating the wheat export business from some origins – so there is still hope that US wheat exports will hit the USDA target.

 

As to prices, the next few weeks are the doldrums of the grain market with never too much happening in November and December to get markets too excited. Of course, after saying that, I will probably be proven wrong.

 

 

Crop Situation and Condition – USA/France --- reports November 09, 2018

 

USA

 

Very poor

%

Poor

%

Fair

%

Good

%

Very Good

%

Condition

 

 

 

 

 

Winter wheat

3

9

37

42

9

 

 

 

 

 

 

Harvested

This week

%

Last week

%

This week

2017

Average

2013/17

 

Corn

76

63

68

77

 

Sorghum

64

53

70

76

 

Soybeans

83

72

89

89

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Planted

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wheat, winter

84

78

90

90

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

France

 

Very poor

%

Poor

%

Fair

%

Good

%

Very Good

%

Condition

 

 

 

 

 

Corn

5

13

24

52

5

 

 

 

 

 

 

Harvested

This week

%

Last week

%

This week

2017

 

 

Corn

98

96

94

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Planted

This week

%

Last week

%

This week

2017

 

 

Wheat, winter

85

70

87

 

 

Barley, winter

90

75

95

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

@ USDA and AgriMer

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)

$20/21.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$20/21.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t

$34/35.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch)

$33/34.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t

$35/36.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$36/37.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch)

$37/38.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$45/46.00

Steady

x

US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)

$34/35.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t

$37/38.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$48/49.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf China: Panamax

$47/48.00

Down $1.00

X

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$36/37.00

Steady

X

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$27/28.00

Steady

X

US PNW China: Panamax

$26/27.00

Steady

X

US East Coast Egypt: Panamax

$42/43.00

Steady

X

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$45/46.00

Down $1.00

x

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t

$31/32.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t

$37/38.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)

$14/15.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch)

$21/22.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch)

$13/14.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000

$26/27.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t

$24/25.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t

$14/15.00

Down $1.00

X

France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t

$37/38.00

Down $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Steady

X

Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$43/44.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$42/43.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$36/37.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t

$38/39.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$23/24.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t

$35/36.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t

$33/34.00

Steady

X

Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t

$30/31.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t

$38/39.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Steady

X

Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t

$21/22.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t

$28/29.00

Steady

X

Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t

$38/39.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t

$38/39.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Down $1.00

X

Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t

$27/28.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$37/38.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Down $1.00

X

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$33/34.00

Down $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$19.00/19.50

Steady

X

Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$19.50/20.00

Steady

X

Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Ukraine to China:  50,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Steady

X

Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Steady

X

Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t

$28/29.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)

$13/14.00

Steady

X

Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)

$31/32.00

Steady

X

Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) -

$30/32.00

Down $2.00

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)

$17/18.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich)

$17/18.00

Down $1.00

X

Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$32/33.00

Steady

X

Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$46/47.00

Down $2.00

X

Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$38/39.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t

$23/24.00

Down $1.00

X

Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$16/17.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)

$23/24.00

Down $1.00

X

Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$28/29.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t

$20/21.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k

$31/32.00

Down $2.00

X

Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t

$38/39.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t

$11/12.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$18/19.00

Down $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included)

1147

Down 310

X

Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT)

1461

Down 1041

X

Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT)

1495

Down 35

X

Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT)

1003

Down 48

X

Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT)

656

Down 10

x

 

 

 

 


 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR December 2018/February 2019

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA

 USD 214/219

X

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA

 USD 229/233

x

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 223/227

X

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 228/232

X

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

 USD 230/234

X

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

 USD 232/234

X

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 215/218 Jan/Feb 2019

X

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 215/218

x

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 235/237

x

   Barley, feed, Argentina, up river

 USD no prices

X

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 237/241

X

   Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest

 USD 220/225

X

 

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

 USD 165/168

x

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 183/186

x

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

 USD 165/169

X

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 168/172

X

   Corn, FOB France - Atlantic

 USD 199/201

x

   Corn, FOB Romania

 USD 166/170

X

   Corn, FOB Russia

 USD 185/189  

X

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 168/172

X

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD 156/161

X

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

 USD 170/174

x

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 347/351

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 372/376

x

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

 USD 363/367

X

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 332/336

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

 USD 366/370

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 337/341

X

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 335/338

x

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 375/379

X

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 392>>374  

X

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 USD 347/353

x

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 545>>525 m/t  

X

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 175>>165 m/t

X

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 195/199

X

 

 

 

 

 

Not much at all going on in the corn by-product market – prices for export seemed to stay quite steady for the week. Although, the USDA price report shows the average Midwest USA price for corn gluten feed was up by about US 6 m/t and up USD 3 m/t for corn gluten feed. These higher prices were not seen in the export market.

 

Demand for DDGS from Asian buyers is steady but not overwhelming. The US Grains Council report this week was saying that DDGS prices could start to move higher as the winter months usually have higher US domestic demand and more demand normally means higher prices.

 

It will be interesting to see if anything happens to corn gluten meal prices when the new fishing quota for Peru is announced and buyers rush into the market. If the new quota is high and fishmeal prices weaken then there is a good chance that CGM will follow.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Australian MBM 45% protein

   Australian MBM 50% protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

 USD 380/400 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 750/760 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein

  

   USA Feathermeal, 80% protein

   USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

 USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 480/520 to Indonesia

 USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia

 

Meat and bone meal prices into Asia, for non-Indonesia destinations, moved a little higher this week but it is reported that US origin prices have been softer as buyers are looking at origins that can offer quicker delivery than the US. New Zealand is showing higher prices as they are about the best game in town for now.

 

US export prices and domestic prices were steady on the week. Animal protein stocks in the US are quite high and low vegetable protein prices mean that animal proteins are having to fight for business. The Jacobsen report was mentioning that feathermeal prices are up on the week pushed higher by good export demand – they also feel that feathermeal and perhaps poultry meal prices could be trending higher – leaving poor old meat and bone meal behind.

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Fishmeal prices in Peru were quoted a little lower this week – probably slipped a little as there are no buyers and few sellers as we all wait to find out what will happen with the next fishing quota. Some of the trade folks are saying that a quick announcement of the quota could see fishing start early next week. I guess all the fishing boats are sitting there with their motors revved up and fishing nets in hand.

Reports say that the very last of the current fishmeal stocks have been sold and the warehouses are all but empty –just the last few lots still to ship.

 

MSI-Ceres was mentioning this week that buyers in China will probably want new business not shipped until mid-January so that arrivals in China don't bump into Chinese New Year and face discharge delays and demurrage. China's current fishmeal imports from all origins are reported by officials to be at about 1.2 million m/t at the end of September which is down by about 11% on the previous year. Shipments from Peru represent 56% of China's fishmeal imports with the balance of imports coming from 19 different origins.

 

Peru's fishmeal exports to the end of October are just under 950,000 m/t with 770,000 m/t going to China and another 110,000 m/t to Asian destinations. These numbers certainly tell you where all the fishmeal business is being done.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Herring fishmeal

72% protein

1,755

Danish fishmeal

64% protein

1,480

Peru fishmeal

64% protein

1,475

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,525

Iceland fishmeal

70% protein

1,750

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65/66 protein

1240/1250 m/t

 

   67% protein standard steam

1300/1310 m/t

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1450/1460 m/t

No prices

   67% protein 120 TVN

1500/1510 m/t

1540/1560

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1550/1570 m/t

1580/1600

   68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN

1600/1620 m/t

1610/1630

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

1500/1550

1400/1450

   Fish oil, crude drums

1550/1600

 

   Fish oil, flexi tank

1650/1700

 

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

1750/1800

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2018 Wayne S. Bacon