Saturday, July 15, 2017

Weekly report -- July 15, 2017

 
HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   July 15, 2017

 

 

This week's report is coming from my office computer, not the portable that seemed to cause all the formatting problems last week – I still have not found out what happened to cause the problem.

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

There has certainly been a lot of activity in grain prices in the past couple of weeks as markets are being pushed up and down depending a great deal on what the USDA has to report and how close the USDA numbers are to what the trade had been expecting.

 

This week, most everything moved lower – at least in the futures market: corn was down by about USD 6 m/t, soybeans by USD 4 m/t, soymeal by USD 7 m/t and even wheat was lower with spring wheat dropping USD 8 m/t and winter wheat down by almost USD 11 m/t.

 

That being said, while we did have a down week overall, it ended quite strongly with corn and soybeans up strongly on Friday as concerns over hot dry weather in the US Midwest stopped prices from falling further.

 

The bearish results of the USDA WASDE report have all fallen away as the market looks once again at the summer weather situation in the US --- and as we know from all the past exciting summers – weather can do amazing things to grain and oilseed prices.

 

But not only is weather a factor but, in the export markets, South American crops are becoming much more of a factor against US corn and soybeans in some destinations and as usual Black Sea corn is dominating many regional Middle East/Africa markets.   

 

So, for a few weeks now we can expect some weather-related ups and downs in USA grain/oilseed prices --- just the same as every year.

 

 

 

Crop progress and condition --- USA and France

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Condition USA

July 10, 2017

 

Very poor

%

Poor

%

Fair

%

Good

%

Excellent

%

Corn

3

7

25

52

13

Soybeans

3

8

27

52

10

Sorghum

1

5

31

56

7

Spring Wheat

19

20

26

29

6

Spring Barley

7

12

30

41

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Condition France

July 10, 2017

Very poor

%

Poor

%

Fair

%

Good

%

Excellent

%

Wheat, soft

2

9

24

57

9

Barley, winter

2

12

24

53

9

Wheat, hard

1

11

29

54

5

Barley, spring

1

9

25

63

2

Corn

0

3

16

69

12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)

$13.00/13.50

Steady

x

US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$22/23.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT

$23/24.00

Steady

x

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)

$22/23.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000

$24/25.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$25/26.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch)

$26/27.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$37/38.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)

$28/29.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$37/38.00

Steady

X

US Gulf China: Panamax

$36/37.00

Steady

X

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$37/38.00

Up $1.00

X

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$20/21.00

Up $1.00

X

US PNW China: Panamax

$19/20.00

Up $1.00

X

US East Coast Egypt: Panamax

$47/48.00

Steady

X

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$51/52.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$13/14.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)

$16/17.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch)

$22/23.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch)

$10/11.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000

$20/21.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t

$47/48.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$25/26.00

Steady

X

Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$34/35.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$35/36.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$24/25.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t

$20/21.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$22/23.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t

$42/43.00

Steady

X

Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3k disch)

$30/31.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t

$22/23.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$25/26.00

Steady

X

Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t

$17/18.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Steady

X

Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Up $2.00

X

Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t

$27/28.00

Up $2.00

X

Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t

$24/25.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$38/39.00

Up $2.00

X

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$23/24.00

Up $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$19.50/20.00

Steady

X

Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$20.00/20.50

Steady

X

Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Ukraine to China:  50,000 m/t

$27/28.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)

$12/13.00

Down $1.00

X

Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)

$25/27.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)

$13/14.00

Down $1.00

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich)

$14/15.00

Down $1.00

X

Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$25/27.00

Steady

X

Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$32/34.00

Up $2.00

X

Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$33/34.00

Down $2.00

X

Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$14/15.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)

$14/15.00

Up $2.00

X

Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$21/23.00

Up $2.00

X

Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k

$19/20.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t

$36/37.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$14/15.00

Down $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

900

Up 78

X

Baltic Capesize Index

933

Up 180

X

Baltic Panamax Index

1173

Up 111

X

Baltic Supramax Index

769

Up 37

X

Baltic Handisize Index

486

Up 15

X

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR July 2017/September 2017

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA

 USD 213/228

x

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein -NOLA

 USD 257/265 high protein

                     premium

x

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 183/188

X

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 188/193

X

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

 USD 190/195

X

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

 USD 197/200

x

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver

 USD 189/194 new crop

x

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 173/177

x

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 169/171

x

   Barley, feed, Argentina

 USD 149/153

x

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 159/162

x

   Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest

 USD 215/220

x

 

 

 

   Corn, FOB NOLA USA

 USD 162/165

x

   Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 167/170

x

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

 USD 154/157 Aug/Sep

x

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 154/158 Aug/Sep

x

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 170/175

x

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 197/205

x

   Corn, FOB Romania

 USD 169/173

x

   Corn, FOB Russia

 USD 168/171

x

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

 USD 190/203

x

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD 134/138

x

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 354/358

x

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 379/383

x

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

 USD 359/362

x

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 323/328

x

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

 USD 353/357

x

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 314/318

x

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB India

 USD 360/365

x

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 377/382

X

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 366/372

x

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 381/385

x

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 USD 377/382

x

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD  600/610 m/t

X

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD  135/142 m/t

x

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD  176>>170 m/t

x

 

 

 

 

 

  USA Corn by-product exports – Jan/May 2017 – in m/t – major destinations.

 

 

Corn Gluten Feed

Corn Gluten Meal

 

Distillers Dried Grains

DDGS

Bangladesh

 

 

29,000

Cambodia

 

 

18,000

Canada

 

19,600

303,100

Chile

 

35,000

10,500

China

 

 

294,900

Colombia

27,600

40,900

89,500

Costa Rica

 

 

38,500

El Salvador

 

4,200

25,000

Egypt

2,700

42,300

51,900

Guatemala

 

6,400

20,900

Honduras

 

3,500

17,900

Indonesia

 

120,800

237,900

Ireland

133,700

 

143,100

Israel

89,900

5,200

134,600

Japan

 

2,200

191,300

Malaysia

 

6,200

38,200

Mexico

12,200

11,800

903,800

Morocco

22,500

 

102,000

New Zealand

 

 

47,800

Pakistan

 

 

17,800

Peru

 

4,400

 

Philippines

 

1,000

62,700

Portugal

21,100

 

36,300

Saudi Arabia

 

 

25,200

South Korea

 

 

345,400

Spain

5,400

 

175,700

Taiwan

 

13,300

99,400

Thailand

 

24,100

295,800

Turkey

67,000

 

734,400

UK

 

 

97,700

Vietnam

 

3,800

2,000

 

 

 

 

Total exports

383,700

349,900

4,648,600

@USDA GATS

 

According to the USDA national price recap, there was not a great deal of excitement in domestic corn by-product prices. The USDA shows corn gluten feed up by about USD 2 m/t with corn gluten meal up by about USD 3 m/t and DDGS up by USD 3 to 5 m/t.

 

Export prices for all three items were also a little higher on the week but much of the higher FOB prices are logistics driven as continued good export demand is keeping shipping positions tight – especially at container loading facilities.

 

DDGS production in the US has also slowed a little – probably the summer doldrums – which is keeping prices a little firmer. However, it is reported that buyers are bidding well below current market levels --- but with no success.

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50% protein

   Argentina poultry meal, 57/60% protein

   Argentina feathermeal, 78/80% protein

 USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia

   Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein

 USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia

   Australian MBM 45% protein

   Australian MBM 50% protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

 USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 800/810 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein

   USA Feathermeal, 80% protein

   USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

 USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 620/630 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 750/800 m/t CNF Asia

 

Prices for most animal proteins into Asia moved a little higher this week following the strength in soymeal that we have seen in the past couple of weeks. There is some talk of lower cattle slaughter levels in Australia and New Zealand that may help to move prices higher.

 

The US price for pet food grade poultry meal was very weak with US sellers able to price well below prices from Australia and New Zealand – as much as USD 70 m/t lower some say. The poultry meal prices are down strictly on a drop in demand from the US pet food industry, making this a dandy buying opportunity for high spec poultry meal.

 

US domestic meat and bone meal prices were higher on the week as soymeal price levels helped to move MBM prices up.

 

Exports are saying the animal protein prices are expected to follow along with where soymeal prices are going but perhaps lagging a few days behind with the price changes.

 

 

USA exports of animal proteins and feathermeal – Jan/May 2017 – in m/t – major destinations

 

 

Meat and Bone meal  --  includes pork

and poultry meal

Feathermeal

Cambodia

1,500

 

Canada

25,800

4,200

Chile

 

2,900

China

18,500

6,100

Ecuador

3,000

 

Germany

3,900

 

Honduras

2,100

 

Indonesia

69,000

13,300

Mexico

78,300

 

Peru

2,300

 

Thailand

4,300

 

Vietnam

12,000

 

 

 

 

Total exports

227,300

27,400

@USDA GATS

 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

The catch in Peru is certainly dropping off as we work through July – just as all the experts had been saying. In the North that catch is now up to about 2.3 million m/t and it looks like it is going to be very difficult to reach the 2.8 mm/t quota level. The total fishmeal produced should be up at about 535,000 m/t.

 

While business has been slow, the expected drop in fishmeal production has started to push prices higher as it looks like the total production may be as much as 100,000 m/t below the full quota level – this would be about a 15% drop in production.

 

According to reports from Peru, everyone has not as yet fully recovered from the cyber attack that knock out some container facilities. However, the trade says that almost everything is back to normal.

 

The problem facing both buyers and sellers is that, if the fishing falls short, some producers may have oversold their production which could cause delivery problems to buyers – unless fishing improves for the 15 days left in July.

Prices are definitely moving higher, as producers see that there is not much chance of surplus fishmeal stocks on hand. Buyers are going to have to pay up to get any Peruvian fishmeal at all.

 

You can also see in the various reports that most experts are now starting to talk about the next Peru fishing season as the current one is nearly history. There will be some exploratory voyages in August and September to look at the biomass size with results expected in October.

 

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Herring fishmeal

72% protein

1,475

Danish fishmeal

64% protein

1,355

Peru fishmeal

64% protein

1,250

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,300

Iceland fishmeal

70% protein

1,430

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein 

1100/1120 m/t

 

   65/66 protein

1150/1170 m/t

 

   67% protein standard steam

1200/1220 m/t

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1300/1320 m/t

1290/1310

   67% protein 120 TVN

1340/1360 m/t

1320/1340

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1380/1400 m/t

1350/1370

   68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN

1420/1440 m/t

1380/1400

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

1200/1250

1100/1150

   Fish oil, crude drums

1300/1350

 

   Fish oil, flexi tank

1400/1450

 

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

1600/1700

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2017 Wayne S. Bacon