Saturday, July 13, 2019

Weekly Report - July 13, 2019

 
HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office : +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile : +33.6.8068.4564   

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT July 13, 2019

 

Quite a strong post WASDE report week – corn prices were up by about USD 6 m/t with soybeans up by USD 10/12 m/t and soymeal up by at least USD 10 m/t. Winter wheat too was higher with US soft red up by about USD 6 m/t and hard red up by closer to USD 8 m/t.

 

According to market experts, the continuing rally in corn and soybeans is just a carry over of WASDE excitement with some additional bullishness due to the weather forecast. Temperatures in the mid-west of the US are expected to be very high for a couple of weeks with not much rainfall in the forecast. Corn, in particular, may not be all that happy with two weeks of hot dry weather.

 

Export corn prices in NOLA moved higher due to Hurricane Barry and the expected problems in loading in NOLA. Barry is not expected to have any effect on the corn crop just on NOLA loading.

 

The trade says that soybeans are higher on both the weather and the chance that the situation with China may be solved before summer is over. Soybeans may be better equipped than corn to face a couple of weeks of hot dry weather but there could still be the risk of lower crop yields.

 

Wheat was moving higher still on the back of WASDE report numbers – nothing like lower ending stocks to move prices higher.

 

One other factor affecting the market is that the trade doesn't have much confidence in the USDA WASDE report and have questions about some of the numbers --- both the acreage and yield numbers are felt to be too high with the trade expecting lower numbers in future reports. Overall, the WASDE was thought to be a bearish report which caused a bullish market reaction. Some experts are saying that the August USDA report will certainly be bullish.

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains

 

The Baltic Dry Index for sea freight reached its highest level in 11 months this week – Capesize and Panamax vessels were up very strongly due to very good demand for larger vessels for iron ore. The increased demand for larger vessels also pulled higher the prices for smaller vessels --- most grain rates moved up by at least USD 1 m/t this week.

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)

$19/20.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$19/20.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t

$30/31.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch)

$29/30.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t

$31/32.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$36/37.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch)

$35/36.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$48/49.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)

$37/38.00

 

X

US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t

$36/37.00

 

X

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$46/47.00

Up $2.00

X

US Gulf China: Panamax

$45/46.00

Up $2.00

X

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$37/38.00

 

X

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$25/26.00

Up $1.00

X

US PNW China: Panamax

$24/25.00

Up $1.00

X

US East Coast Egypt: Panamax

$47/48.00

 

X

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$53/54.00

 

X

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$18/19.00

Up $1.00

X

France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t

$40/41.00

 

X

France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t

$38/39.00

 

X

France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)

$18/19.00

Up $1.00

X

France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t

No info

 

X

France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch)

$20/21.00

 

X

France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch)

$15/16.00

 

X

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000

$27/28.00

Up $1.00

X

France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t

$19/20.00

Up $1.00

X

France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t

$17/18.00

Up $1.00

X

France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t

$30/31.00

 

X

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$28/29.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$38/39.00

Up $2.00

X

Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$37/38.00

Up $2.00

X

Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Up $2.00

X

Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$26/27.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t

$35/36.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t

$34/35.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t

$37/38.00

Up $2.00

X

Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$28/29.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t

$20/21.00

Up $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t

$30/31.00

Up $2.00

X

Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t

$35/36.00

Up $2.00

X

Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t

$34/35.00

Up $2.00

X

Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t

$27/28.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t

$28/29.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$38/39.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t

$27/28.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Up $2.00

X

 

 

 

 

Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$19.00/19.50

 

X

Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$20.00/20.50

 

X

Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Up $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Ukraine to China:  50,000 m/t

$32/33.00

 

X

Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t

$50/51.00

Up $2.00

X

Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t

$47/49.00

Up $3.00

X

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)

$17/18.00

Up $1.00

X

Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)

$23/24.00

 

X

Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) -

$28/29.00

 

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)

$17/18.00

 

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich)

$17/18.00

Up $2.00

X

Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$23/24.00

 

X

Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$42/43.00

 

X

Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$36/37.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t

$19/20.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$21/22.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)

$19/20.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$26/27.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t

$24/25.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k

$30/31.00

Up $2.00

X

Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t

$39/40.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t

$16/17.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$20/21.00

Up $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included)

1865

Up 165

X

Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT)

3541

Up 243

x

Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT)

1945

Up 376

x

Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT)

879

Up 65

x

Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT)

472

Up 29

x

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR August/October 2019

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

 USD 228/231

X

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

 USD 227/230

X

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 188/191

X

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 192/195

X

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

 USD 193/196

X

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

 USD 198/201

X

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 195/198 Dec/Jan

X

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 182/185

 

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 185/187

X

   Barley, feed, Argentina, up river

 USD 184/187 Dec/Jan

X

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 175/178 Sep/Nov

X

 

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

 USD 206/209

X

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 218/221

X

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

 USD 182/185

X

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 185/188 Aug/Oct

X

   Corn, FOB France – Atlantic

 USD 208/210

X

   Corn, FOB Romania

 USD 187/190 Sep/Oct

X

   Corn, FOB Russia

 USD 168/171 Sep/Oct

X

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 190/193 Sep/Oct  

X

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD no prices

X

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

 USD 187/190

X

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 362/365

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 387/390

X

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

 USD 353/356

X

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 321/324

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

 USD 350/353

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 323/326

X

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 359/362

X

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 348/351

X

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 369/372  

X

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 USD no prices

X

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 505/515 m/t  

X

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 185/190 m/t

X

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 222/228

X

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This week was an up week for all corn by-products as they catch up with the rally in corn prices. Corn gluten meal prices are up by about USD 10 m/t, probably more on a CNF basis as freight is up too. Corn gluten feed continues to move higher while DDGS prices seem to be quite variable with some shippers up by USD 5 to 8 m/t for August/September while a couple of other exporters are only up a dollar or two.

 

With both corn and soybean prices continuing higher there is no reason to expect any weakness on corn by-product prices.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Australian MBM 45% protein

   Australian MBM 50% protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

 USD 325/335 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 360/370 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 690/710 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein

  

   USA Feathermeal, 80% protein

   USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

 USD 410/430 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 350/370 to Indonesia

 USD 460/480 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia

 

Meat and bone meal prices into major Asian markets are said to be up by about USD 10 m/t this week. While feathermeal prices in Asia drifted lower on a lack of demand – it is also said that poultry meal prices are showing weakness due to a wide range of proteins available at lower costs.

 

The feeling in the animal protein business is that there looks to be little reason to expect higher prices in the short term --- just too much supply and too little demand. However, if we keep seeing strength in soymeal prices this will pull animal protein prices higher.

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

With bans in place covering most of the Peru fishing areas, the catch has been very sparse – reports say that only 35,000 m/t were landed in the last week. Total catch is now up to 1.88 million m/t, which leaves about 220,000 m/t to reach the quota of 2.1 mm/t. The latest fishing ban runs until July 18 and the trade seems to feel that the government will cut off fishing on the 18th.

 

We are waiting to see what the new quota will be for the south of Peru – expected to be somewhere around 500,000 m/t but the trade doubts that this amount can be landed in the south.

 

New business has been quite slow with China seeming to be well covered for now – especially with the lower fishmeal consumption seen in China. The trade says that China's fishmeal imports may be down by 15% this year.

 

Buyers are hoping for lower prices while sellers have little left to sell so are holding on to stocks for now – it is quite a way to go to the next fishing season.

 

The new Peru export tariff on fishmeal will be set at 0.43% of the FOB price of fishmeal which is up from the 0.25% -- the actual amount is based on a monthly average FOB price. There has been comment in the trade that this increase, although it is not too great, will make Peruvian fishmeal less competitive in export markets. This is a difficult position to support when every ounce of Peru fishmeal is sold every year, not like years ago when there were mountains of unsold fishmeal.

 

Once again, there has been no change in export fishmeal prices this week.

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Herring fishmeal

72% protein

1,870

Danish fishmeal

64% protein

1,500

Peru fishmeal

64% protein

1,500

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,580

Iceland fishmeal

70% protein

1,890

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65/66 protein

1280/1300 m/t

 

   67% protein standard steam

1350/1370 m/t

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1450/1470 m/t

No prices

   67% protein 120 TVN

1500/1520 m/t

1500/1520

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1550/1570 m/t

1570/1590

   68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN

1600/1620 m/t

1600/1620

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

1850/1900

 

   Fish oil, crude drums

1900/1950

 

   Fish oil, flexi tank

2000/2050

 

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

2100/2400

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2019 Wayne S. Bacon