Sunday, April 23, 2017

Weekly Report -- April 22, 2017

 
HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   April 22, 2017

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

It was another down week for most everything – in the futures market corn was down by about USD 5 to 6 m/t, soybeans down by around USD 2 m/t, soymeal down by USD 8 m/t and winter wheat down by USD 8 m/t. The drop in futures prices does not always get reflected in export prices but you can be quite sure that with everything lower, the trend in export prices should also be to lower, barring any logistics problems that could keep export prices up.

 

For the corn market, the god weather in the US is expected to lead to faster planting. The quicker the corn gets in the ground the sooner it is growing and, perhaps, the better the crop yield – at least that is what the short sellers seem to think. The weather in Brazil and Argentina has been very good with Brazilian crop forecasts seeming to increase daily.

 

Soybean prices were pressured by the announcement of a 10 percent increase in soybean planting in Canada – nothing like even more soybeans to move prices lower. There was a story in the press that farmers in Brazil have only sold just less than 50 percent of their soybean crop – does that mean that they will sell and push prices lower or that they will hold on to stocks in hopes of higher prices.

 

All winter wheat prices were lower as the situation seems to improve every day. Although, the planting of spring wheat has been slowed a little by heavy rains – good for the winter wheat but not so good for planting.

 

Crop progress and condition --- USA and France

 

 

April 16, 2017

%

April 16, 2016

%

Five year average

%

 

Planted USA

 

 

 

 

Corn

6.0

12.0

9.0

 

Sorghum

21.0

16.0

20.0

 

Spring wheat

13.0

25.0

21.0

 

Spring Barley

13.0

31.0

28.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Condition USA

Very poor

And poor

%

Fair

%

Good

%

Excellent

%

Winter wheat

13

34

46

7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Planted France

April 16, 2017

%

April 16, 2016

%

 

 

Corn

57.0

9.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Condition France

Very poor

And poor

%

Fair

%

Good

%

Excellent

%

Wheat, soft

3.0

13.0

59.0

26.0

Barley, winter

5.0

16.0

58.0

20.0

Wheat, hard

6.0

19.0

66.0

9.0

Barley, spring

3.0

13.0

72.0

13.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)

$15.50/16.50

Steady

x

US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$24/25.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT

$25/26.00

Steady

x

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)

$24/25.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000

$26/27.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$25/26.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch)

$26/27.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$55/56.00

Steady

x

US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)

$31/32.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$40/41.00

Steady

x

US Gulf China: Panamax

$39/40.00

Steady

x

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$37/38.00

Steady

x

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$22/23.00

Steady

x

US PNW China: Panamax

$21/22.00

Steady

x

US East Coast Egypt: Panamax

$46/47.00

down $1.00

x

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$52/53.00

Steady

x

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Up $1.00

X

France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Down $1.00

x

France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$13/14.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000

$32/33.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t

$37/38.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t

$50/51.00

Steady

x

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$28/29.00

Steady

x

Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$40/41.00

Steady

x

Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$41/42.00

Steady

x

Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Steady

x

Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t

$19/20.00

Down $1.00

x

Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$24/25.00

Down $1.00

x

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t

$43/44.00

Steady

x

Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$31/32.00

Steady

x

Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Steady

x

Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$28/29.00

Steady

x

Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t

$19/20.00

Down $1.00

x

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Steady

x

Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t

$31/32.00

Steady

x

Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Steady

x

Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t

$30/31.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$38/39.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$22/23.00

Steady

x

 

 

 

 

Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$20.00/20.50

Steady

x

Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$20.50/21.00

Steady

x

Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t

$27/28.00

Steady

x

 

 

 

 

Ukraine to China:  50,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)

$18/19.00

Steady

x

Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)

$28/29.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)

$20/21.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich)

$21/22.00

Steady

x

Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$28/29.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$32/33.00

Up $1.00

x

Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$18/19.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)

$14/15.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$23/24.00

Down $1.00

x

Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k

$27/28.00

Down $1.00

X

Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t

$37/38.00

Down $1.00

x

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$17/18.00

Steady

x

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

1195

Down 101

x

Baltic Capesize Index

1830

Down 419

X

Baltic Panamax Index

1494

Down 118

x

Baltic Supramax Index

895

Down 4

x

Baltic Handisize Index

575

Up 15

x

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR May 2017/July 2017

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA

 USD 175/182

x

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein

 USD 204/209

x

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 180/184

x

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 185/188

x

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

 USD 184/187

x

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

 USD 182/185

x

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver

 USD 184/190

x

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 174/177

x

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 159/161

x

   Barley, feed, Argentina

 USD 160/163 May/June

x

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 158/162

x

   Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest

 USD 200/205

x

 

 

 

   Corn, FOB NOLA USA

 USD 156/159

x

   Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 170/174 June/July

x

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

 USD 153/158 Aug/Sep

x

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 156/162 Aug/Sep

x

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 164/168

x

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 185/187

x

   Corn, FOB Romania

 USD 174/177

x

   Corn, FOB Russia

 USD 170/173

x

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

 USD 170/173

x

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD 153/157

x

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 345/351

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 370/376

x

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

 USD 348/352

x

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 317/323

x

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

 USD 341/346

x

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 324/327

x

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB India

 USD 348/353

x

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 360/365

x

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 347/352

x

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 355/360

x

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 USD 383/388

x

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD  595/600 m/t

x

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD  115/120 m/t

X

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD  144/147 m/t

X

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ethanol production in the US has dropped due to normal yearly facility maintenance which means that DDGS production has also dropped but suppliers say that there are still very good supplies of DDGS and they don't expect to see any increase in prices in the near term. Export prices for DDGS are said to be down by about USD 2 m/t with very good buying interest seen from Asia.

 

As long as corn prices continue to work lower, there seems to be little reason to expect any rally in corn by-product prices. Even corn gluten meal, which has a habit of doing its own thing, is staying a little weak along with corn prices. Of course, if there is a rally in fishmeal or meat and bone meal that we could see CGM also move higher but a rally does not look too possible today.

 

These days both DDGS and corn gluten feed are very good export bargains and it looks like DDGS is going to have no trouble in reaching export goals as other markets have stepped up to replace the business lost from China. As usual much of the market is just price, price and price.

 

The USDA price averages show corn gluten meal down by about USD 1 m/t with corn gluten feed down by USD 2 m/t and DDGS down by USD 3 m/t.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein

   Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein

   Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein

 USD 435/450 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia

   Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein

 USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia

   Australian MBM 45 protein

   Australian MBM 50 protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

 USD 480/490 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein

   USA Feathermeal, 80 protein

   USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

 USD 540/560 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 560/580 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 660/680 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 870/880 m/t CNF Asia

 

There was not much excitement this week in the meat and bone meal side of the animal protein business. Things seem to have slowed in Asia as the rush to cover Ramadan needs is over and most buyers are now covered for 60 days or so.

 

Prices for both feathermeal and poultry meal for export have moved higher again this week as strong demand from China is pushing prices up. Reports in the USA say that very good domestic demand for poultry meal is also a major factor in increasing export prices.

 

The very good demand for poultry meal should keep that price firm but it is possible that meat and bone meal may be a little weaker as the strong Asian demand falls off.

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

I received a question last week about the fishmeal prices shown in the report. These prices are accumulated from several sources and are expected to show about where market prices could be. The prices do not, to the best of my knowledge, represents any actual trades just where a number of trade people think that the prices stand.

 

The fishing in the south of Peru is now up to just over 160,000 m/t of fish landed, just under 60,000 m/t of fishmeal production.

 

The new quota for the north of Peru has been announced at 2.8 million m/t with fishing to begin on April 22, 2017 with an "exploratory" catch – the actual season will begin on April 26 and is expected to end on July 31, although no ending date was given.

 

The new quota represents 650/700,000 m/t of fishmeal with about 250,000 m/t of production having been presold. With an amount of about 400,000 m/t available for sale, we should see some buying interest coming back into the market.

 

According to the trade, China has good fishmeal supplies and orders so will probably not be rushing to additional buying.

 

With a good supply of Peru fishmeal available for shipment in June/July, there is a good chance that prices will weaken a little – perhaps a lot, only time will tell.

 

So now, let's all go fishing.

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Herring fishmeal

72% protein

1,285

Danish fishmeal

64% protein

1,280

Peru fishmeal

64% protein

1,300

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,350

Iceland fishmeal

70% protein

1,280

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein 

1100/1120 m/t

 

   65/66 protein

1170/1190 m/t

 

   67% protein standard steam

1220/1240 m/t

1300/1320

   67% protein 150 TVN

1290/1310 m/t

1320/1340

   67% protein 120 TVN

1350/1370 m/t

1350/1370

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1400/1420 m/t

1400/1420

   68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN

1430/1450 m/t

1450/1470

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

1350/1400

1250/1300

   Fish oil, crude drums

1450/1500

 

   Fish oil, flexi tank

1600/1650

 

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

1800/1900

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2017 Wayne S. Bacon