Saturday, February 16, 2019

Weekly report February 16 2019

 
HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   tradegroUp@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564   

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT February 16, 2019

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Monday is a holiday in the US so the week should start off quietly – market also ended the week quietly as everyone squared up their positions for the three-day weekend.

 

On the week, corn prices were unchanged while soybeans dropped by about USD 3 m/t with winter wheat the big loser dropping USD 5 or 6 m/t.

 

Corn prices in the US did try to move higher this week on the back of E15 ethanol blending but below expectation export sales and no new business from China kept prices steady. There is also a chance that India may become a corn reasonable large importer this year with their corn crop down by 21%. India won't buy from the US due to GMO but could take a chink of other origin corn off the market.  

 

Soybeans did their very best to move higher this week but just couldn't do it – stories about China tried to get the market excited and push prices higher but higher prices couldn't hold. Most trade reports say that soybean/soymeal is still in a bearish trend and that there is little reason to see any interesting rally in prices.

 

USA winter wheat prices continued lower with trade reports saying that disappointing export sales were behind much of the weakness. Even with US wheat picking up some unexpected business in the odd tender it still is not enough to get export sales up to where the USDA was hoping that they would be. But you know what the saying is – "there is nothing like low prices to cure low prices" – perhaps there is still some chance of a decent jump in US wheat exports.

 

   

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)

$16/17.00

Steady

 

US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$16/17.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t

$27/28.00

Steady

X

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch)

$26/27.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t

$28/29.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$33/34.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch)

$31/32.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$43/44.00

Steady

X

US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)

$32/33.00

Steady

X

US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t

$34/35.00

Up $2.00

X

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$38/39.00

Steady

X

US Gulf China: Panamax

$37/38.00

Steady

X

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$37/38.00

Up $1.00

X

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$23/24.00

Up $2.00

X

US PNW China: Panamax

$22/23.00

Up $2.00

X

US East Coast Egypt: Panamax

$41/42.00

Steady

X

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$46/47.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$14/15.00

Down $1.00

X

France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t

$36/37.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)

$13/14.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t

$21/22.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch)

$20/21.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch)

$12/13.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000

$25/26.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t

$18/19.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t

$14/15.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t

$30/31.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$26/27.00

Steady

X

Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$31/32.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$30/31.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$31/32.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t

$33/34.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$23/24.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t

$31/32.00

Up $2.00

X

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Up $2.00

X

Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t

$33/34.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$26/27.00

Steady

X

Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t

$20/21.00

Up $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Up $1.00

x

Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t

$24/25.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$35/36.00

Up $2.00

X

Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$27/28.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$17.00/17.50

Up $1.00

x

Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$18.50/19.00

Up $0.50

X

Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Ukraine to China:  50,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Up $1.00

X

Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t

$33/34.00

Up $1.00

X

Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t

$30/31.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)

$14/15.00

Up $1.00

X

Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)

$26/27.00

Down $1.00

X

Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) -

$21/22.00

Down $5.00

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)

$14/15.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich)

$14/15.00

Steady

X

Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$26/27.00

Down $1.00

X

Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$37/38.00

Down $5.00

X

Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$34/35.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t

$17/18.00

Down $2.00

X

Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)

$17/18.00

Down $2.00

X

Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$23/24.00

Down $3.00

X

Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t

$20/21.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k

$25/26.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t

$38/39.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t

$13/14.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included)

639

Up 38

X

Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT)

727

Down 65

X

Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT)

624

Up 50

X

Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT)

560

Up 145

x

Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT)

315

Up 25

x

 

 

 

 


 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR March/May 2019

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA

 USD 224>>220

X

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA

 USD 234/236

X

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 236/239

X

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 244/247

X

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

 USD 241/244

X

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

 USD 225/227

X

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 207/210

X

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 229/231

X

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 200/203

X

   Barley, feed, Argentina, up river

 USD 192/195

X

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 235/238

X

 

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

 USD 175/177

X

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 189/192

X

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

 USD 166/169

X

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 164/166 Aug/Sep

X

   Corn, FOB France - Atlantic

 USD 204/206

X

   Corn, FOB Romania

 USD 181/184

X

   Corn, FOB Russia

 USD 179/182  

X

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 177/180

X

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD 171/174

X

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

 USD 179/182

X

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 337/340

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 362/365

X

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

 USD 352/355

X

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 322/325

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

 USD 351/354

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 324/326

X

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 345/348

X

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 345/348

X

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 353/356  

X

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 USD no prices

X

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 560>>550 m/t  

X

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 170>>160 m/t

x

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 221>>215

x

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There was little or no change this week in the export prices for corn byproducts but with the main Chinese Asian buyers coming back to work, we should see more export sales activity this week but probably not higher prices.

 

The US Grains Council mentioned in their report this week that there was good buying interest for DDGS from Egypt and the Mediterranean.

 

With corn prices staying steady and soybeans moving lower, there doesn't seem to be any good reason to expect that prices will move higher. Looks like we are kind of stuck at a price level that doesn't much want to change.

 

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Australian MBM 45% protein

   Australian MBM 50% protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

 USD 370/380 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 730/740 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein

  

   USA Feathermeal, 80% protein

   USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

 USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 410/420 to Indonesia

 USD 580/600 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 525/545 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia

 

With major buyers in Asia just ending their Chinese New Year holidays the animal protein export business has been very, very quiet. Buyers were very, very few but sellers seemed to be many so we may see prices slipping at little this week – at least for meat and bone meal.

 

There were reports out of Australia that the drought is over in some areas and has been replaced by torrential rains and wide spread flooding, Livestock herds that weren't decimated by the drought are now seeing animals drowning – cattle losses due to drowning could be as high as 500,000 head. A difficult year for livestock in Australia has now become even more difficult.  

 

The export market from the USA was also very quiet this week with few buyers and no change in export prices. Trade reports don't see much of a chance for animal protein prices – mainly meat and bone meal – to move higher.

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Fishing in the south of Peru is now up to just under 160,000 m/t landed – leaving about 380,000 m/t on the quota. Landings to date represent about 37,000 m/t of fishmeal. Landings for the week were just over 16,000 m/t but the south is now on a full fishing ban due to a very high level of juvenile fish – as much as 49% juvenile.

 

Trade reports say that about the only fishmeal for sale these days is that coming from the south as the north is all but sold out.

 

With China closed up tight there has been very little new business in Peru this past week but things will improve this week as everyone gets back to work after the holidays.

 

The Peru Produce Ministry is still hoping to have the next quota announced in early March, but the trade doesn't think that this will be possible as the research vessels will still be out analyzing the biomass until a little later.

 

Fishmeal exports for January 2019 are said to be about 89,000 m/t with just under 71,000 m/t going to China and just over 81,000 m/t going to all of Asia.

 

There was no change in prices this week – almost no buyers and very little to sell kept prices steady.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Herring fishmeal

72% protein

1,740

Danish fishmeal

64% protein

1,460

Peru fishmeal

64% protein

1,475

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,525

Iceland fishmeal

70% protein

1,725

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65/66 protein

1220/1240 m/t

 

   67% protein standard steam

1310/1330 m/t

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1380/1400 m/t

No prices

   67% protein 120 TVN

1410/1430 m/t

1490/1510

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1450/1470 m/t

1520/1540

   68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN

1500/1520 m/t

1570/1590

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

1800/1850

1380/1400

   Fish oil, crude drums

1850/1900

 

   Fish oil, flexi tank

1950/2000

 

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

2200/2400

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2019 Wayne S. Bacon