St Remy De Provence, 13210 France
Phone: +33.6.8068.4564
Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT – October 10, 2026
Market situation for the week.
· US corn prices --- down by about USD 7 m/t
· US soybean prices – down up USD 5 to 6 m/t
· US soymeal prices --- down up USD 18 to 21 m/t
· US winter wheat – down by USD 4 to 6 m/t
· US spring wheat – no change for the week
This week was WASDE week --- amazing, scary and surprising WASDE week --- corn yields reported by the USDA as much higher than expected – no major changes for soybean crop and not much different for wheat of all types.
Corn yield was increased by the USDA WASDE from 178.5 bushels per acre to 181.2 when the trade was expecting 177.6 --- quite a surprise. Needless to say, corn prices moved lower on the WASDE estimate. Corn ending stocks moved higher as did total corn demand with little change in exports. 79.8% of USA total corn supply is used domestically --- 33.6% of total corn supply for feed and 31.6% for ethanol. 19.5% of USA corn is exported.
Soybeans had a mainly neutral WASDE with no major changes. The little strength in soybeans seems to be due to anticipation of increased exports although the trade opinions on exports vary widely and change daily --- no one knows what China will do for US beans. 58.4% of the US total soybean supply is used domestically.
USA wheat stocks are expected to be higher according to the WASDE as export numbers are lower. Wheat production estimates were steady but total wheat production is seen at the lowest level since 1970. 44% of the USA's total wheat supply is used domestically.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per MT, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax
|
$28.00
|
Steady
|
$28.00
|
Steady
|
|
US Gulf Israel: Panamax
|
$45.00
|
Steady
|
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax
|
$45.00
|
Steady
|
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax
|
$46.00
|
Steady
|
US Gulf Morocco: Handi
|
$46.00
|
Steady
|
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi
|
$47.00
|
Steady
|
$51.00
|
Steady
|
|
US Gulf other Med: Handi
|
$48.00
|
Steady
|
US Gulf South Africa: Handi
|
$52.00
|
Steady
|
US Gulf India: Panamax
|
$52.00
|
Steady
|
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax
|
$52.00
|
Steady
|
US Gulf Japan: Panamax
|
$76.00
|
Steady
|
US Gulf China: Panamax
|
$75.00
|
Steady
|
US PNW Egypt: Panama via Panama
|
$52.00
|
Steady
|
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 MT
|
$61.00
|
Steady
|
US PNW Philippines: Panama
|
$36.00
|
Steady
|
US PNW Japan: Panama
|
$38.00
|
Up $1.00
|
US PNW China: Panama
|
$36.00
|
Up $1.00
|
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize
|
$41.00
|
Steady
|
US Lakes, Duluth – Europe – 30,000 MT
|
$60.00
|
Down $2.00
|
US Lakes, Duluth – Morocco – 30,000 MT
|
$66.00
|
Down $2.00
|
|
|
|
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi
|
$33.00
|
Steady
|
France/Germany to Bangladesh 40,000 MT
|
$58.00
|
Steady
|
France/Germany to China: Panama
|
$70.00
|
Steady
|
France/Germany to Egypt: Panama
|
$35.00
|
Steady
|
France/Germany to India: Panama
|
$61.00
|
Steady
|
France/Germany to Iran: Panama
|
N/A
|
|
France/Germany to Jordan: Panama
|
$41.00
|
Steady
|
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi
|
$32.00
|
Steady
|
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax
|
$65.00
|
Steady
|
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi
|
$35.00
|
Steady
|
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi
|
$66.00
|
Steady
|
|
|
|
Argentina to Algeria: Handi
|
$46.00
|
Steady
|
Argentina to China: Panama – no top off
|
$59.00
|
Steady
|
Argentina to Japan: Panama – no top off
|
$60.00
|
Steady
|
Argentina to Egypt: Panama
|
$54.00
|
Steady
|
Argentina to Europe: Panama
|
$41.00
|
Steady
|
Argentina to Morocco: Handi
|
$45.00
|
Steady
|
Argentina to Libya: Handi
|
$46.00
|
Steady
|
Argentina to Jordan: Panama
|
$58.00
|
Steady
|
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax
|
$65.00
|
Steady
|
Argentina to Iran: Panama
|
N/A
|
|
Argentina to Indonesia: Panama
|
$60.00
|
Steady
|
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax
|
$38.00
|
Steady
|
Argentina to Kenya: Handi
|
$56.00
|
Stady
|
Argentina to Spain: Panama
|
$41.00
|
Steady
|
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi
|
$46.00
|
Steady
|
|
|
|
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi
|
$37.00
|
Steady
|
Brazil to China: Panama
|
$58.00
|
Up $2.00
|
Brazil to Japan: Panama
|
$59.00
|
Up $2.00
|
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax
|
$58.00
|
Steady
|
Brazil to Europe: Panama
|
$37.00
|
Steady
|
Brazil to Morocco: Handi
|
$36.00
|
Steady
|
Brazil to Iran: Panama
|
N/A
|
|
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 MT
|
$64.00
|
Steady
|
Brazil to Spain: Panama
|
$37.00
|
Steady
|
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panama
|
$59.00
|
Steady
|
|
|
|
Australia to Saudi: Panama
|
$46.00
|
Steady
|
Australia to Europe: Panama
|
$59.00
|
Steady
|
|
|
|
South Africa to Italy – Handisize
|
$46.00
|
Steady
|
South Africa to Turkey – Handisize
|
$47.00
|
Steady
|
South Africa to Japan – Handisize
|
$43.00
|
Steady
|
South Africa to China – Handisize
|
$43.00
|
Steady
|
|
|
|
Black Sea freight
Accurate freight prices for Black Sea shipments are very difficult to obtain.
|
|
|
Black Sea to China: Panamax
|
$95 Russia
|
Ukraine $56
|
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax
|
$95 Russia
|
Ukraine $63
|
Black Sea to Bangladesh: Panamax
|
$95 Russia
|
N/A
|
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000
|
$90 Russia
|
Ukraine $28
|
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000
|
$90 Russia
|
Ukraine $27
|
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax
|
$46 Russia
|
Ukraine $28
|
Black Sea to East Spain – Panamax
|
$44 Russia
|
Ukraine $23
|
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi
|
$105 Russia
|
Ukraine $29
|
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi
|
$105 Russia
|
Ukraine $28
|
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax
|
$82 Russia
|
Ukraine $30
|
Black Sea to Libya – Handi
|
$105 Russia
|
Ukraine $29
|
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax
|
$82 Russia
|
Ukraine $57
|
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi
|
$85 Russia
|
Ukraine $30
|
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi
|
$95 Russia
|
N/A
|
Black Sea to Nigeria – Handi
|
|
Romania $48
|
Black Sea to Kenya –- Handi
|
|
Romania $55
|
Black Sea to Vietnam --- Handi
|
|
Romania $70
|
Black Sea to Bangladesh --- Handi
|
|
Romania $64
|
Black Sea to Egypt --- Handi
|
|
Romania $23
|
Black Sea to Europe --- Handi
|
|
Romania $30
|
|
|
|
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 MT
|
No info
|
|
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 MT
|
$120
|
|
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 MT
|
$90
|
|
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 MT
|
$105
|
|
|
|
|
Baltic Dry Index
40% Capesize, 30% Panama, 30% Supermax
|
2917
|
Down 231
|
Baltic Capesize Index
|
4340
|
Down 702
|
Baltic Panama Index
|
2424
|
Up 52
|
Baltic Supramax Index
|
1814
|
Up 25
|
Baltic Handisize Index
|
996
|
Down 11
|
|
|
|
Freightos/Baltic Container Index
|
3344
|
Down 8
|
|
|
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2026<<January 2027
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf
|
USD 283<<290
|
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf
|
USD 321<<324
|
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ MT
|
USD 220<<225
|
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ MT
|
USD 213<<218
|
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro
|
USD 265<<270
|
Wheat, Superior, France
|
USD 284/287 spot
|
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver
|
USD 250>>245
|
Wheat, feed, Black Sea
|
USD 215<<220
|
|
|
Barley, France, Rouen port
|
USD 255/258 spot
|
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver
|
USD 240/245
|
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+
|
USD 195/200
|
Barley, feed, Australia
|
USD 260/265
|
|
|
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA
|
USD 220<<230
|
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific Northwest
|
USD 240<<250
|
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver
|
USD 210<<220
|
Corn, FOB Brazil port
|
USD 220<<230
|
Corn, FOB France -- Atlantic
|
USD 335/338 spot
|
Corn, FOB Romania
|
USD 240<<245
|
Corn, FOB Russia
|
USD 215<<220
|
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ MT
|
USD 225<<235
|
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port
|
USD 220<<230
|
Sorghum, FOB Texas
|
USD 257<<262
|
|
|
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA
|
USD 445>> 430
|
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam
|
USD 475>> 460
|
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina
|
USD 435>> 420
|
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil
|
USD 435>>405
|
|
|
Soybeans, FOB NOLA
|
USD 520<<525
|
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB
|
USD 510<<525
|
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB
|
USD 530>>500
|
Soybeans, Black Sea
|
No prices
|
|
|
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA
|
USD 715<<720
|
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA
|
USD 260<<270
|
DDGS corn, 35 profit, USA FOB NOLA
|
USD 290<<300
|
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
Central/North Peru details: The 2026 fishing period is officially closed as of August 21, 2026.
South Peru details: No change this week ---- New quota 251,000 m/t, landed 4,524 m/t, fishmeal produced 1,131 – balance on quota 246,476 m/t to December 31, 2026.
(fishmeal and fishoil production are estimated)
There seems to be lots of discussion (or would that be panic) in Peru related to the possibility that there may not be a November/January fishing season or that if it is allowed may be with a reduced quota or regional limits. According to trade reports, the decision on the next fishing season could be announced on October 12. Overall world fishmeal production looks to be the lowest since 2016.
If there is no fishing, it will certainly keep world fishmeal prices high and accelerate the search for feed formulations with lower fishmeal portions. One more thing that the high fishmeal prices have accomplished is that every country in the world that does much fishing is now becoming a fishmeal exporter --- but much of the fishmeal of questionable quality.
China is on holiday so all is quiet from there this week.
October 19 to 21 are the dates for the IFFO Conference in Buenos Aires --- most of the fishmeal industry will be there. El Nino is expected to be a major topic along with whatever happens with a Peru fishing decision.
Just a note on alternate animal-based proteins --- European prices for poultry meal are very strong with prices up by about USD 300 m/t from the same time in 2025, now at almost USD 900 m/t, a 35% increase. Meat and bone meal, pork meal, feather meal and blood meal prices are also very strong.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type
|
Protein %
|
Price per
MT USED
|
Standard Herring
|
64% protein
|
$2800
|
Danish standard fishmeal
|
71% protein
|
$3675
|
Peru fishmeal
|
65% protein
|
$3300
|
Chile fishmeal
|
67% protein
|
$3340
|
Iceland fish meal
|
71% protein
|
$3720
|
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINERS, ON VESSELS, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 MT for fishmeal
Specification
|
Price per MT FOB vessel Peru port
|
Price per MT
Chile port
|
|
|
|
65% protein standard steam
|
2600/2650
|
|
66% protein 120 TVN
|
2650/2700
|
|
67% protein 150 TVN
|
2700/2750
|
|
67% protein 120 TVN
|
2800/2850
|
3300/3350
|
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN
|
3000/3050
|
3300/3350
|
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN
|
3100/3150
|
3350/3400
|
|
|
|
Fish oil, crude bulk – feed grade
|
No prices
|
8300/8400
|
Fish oil, crude in drums
|
No prices
|
No prices
|
Fish oil, flexi tank
|
No prices
|
No prices
|
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28% EPA/DHA
|
12,000+
|
No prices
|
INFORMATION: TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2026 Wayne S. Bacon
