Saturday, June 23, 2018

Weekly Report --- June 23, 2018

 
HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   tradegroUp@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564   

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT June 23, 2018

 

I was in London this week for the International Grains Council Conference and the gala GAFTA dinner – a very busy three days but great to see many folks that I only see very rarely. The GAFTA dinner is also about the only time in the year when I get to get all duded up in my tuxedo.

 

So, wheat do we see with US grain and oilseed prices this week --- not much change for corn prices, only down by a dollar or two m/t of the week. The farmers don't seem to be selling much corn which is keeping the basis up while the futures slip a little – resulting in almost no change in cash prices.

 

The long-term weather forecast for US corn areas is not all that great with above average temperatures and below average rainfall in some areas so there is the chance that corn prices could make a little move higher.

 

Soybean prices continued to be weak and were down by another USD 5 to 7 m/t --- still due mainly to the US/China trade situation. On the futures side of things, the speculators were increasing their short positions in soybeans, so they are looking for lower prices. However, soybeans and soymeal futures did rally higher on Friday but were still lower on the week.

 

US soybeans are at as much as a USD 15 m/t discount to South American soybeans, so any buying interest out there is mainly for US export soybeans (except China).

 

As has been the usual pattern, US wheat prices were lower on the week. Some trade reports say that most of the selling in the futures market was computer selling as the market dipped a little and set off all kinds of sell stops. There didn't seem to be any fundamental reason for wheat prices to be weak. Hard red wine wheat ended up down by about USD 10 m/t with spring wheat down by about USD 7 m/t.

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

 

Crop Situation and Condition – USA and France

 

France

Very poor

%

Poor

%

Fair

%

Good

%

Very Good

%

Condition

 

 

 

 

 

Wheat - soft

1

7

17

67

8

Wheat - hard

1

9

23

66

2

Barley, winter

1

8

17

67

6

Barley, spring

1

5

17

74

3

Corn

1

7

20

66

6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA

 

Very poor

%

Poor

%

Fair

%

Good

%

Very Good

%

Condition

 

 

 

 

 

Wheat, winter

15

18

28

30

9

Wheat, spring

1

2

19

64

14

Corn

1

3

18

59

19

Sorghum

3

10

33

51

3

Soybeans

1

4

22

58

15

Barley

1

2

13

72

12

 

 

 

 

 

 

Harvested

This week

%

Last week

%

This week

2017

Average

2013/17

 

Wheat, winter

27

14

26

19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Planted

This week

%

Last week

%

This week

2017

%

Average

2013/17

%

 

Sorghum

89

80

84

82

 

Soybeans

97

93

95

91

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)

$21/22.00

Steady

X

US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$21/22.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t

$28/29.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$32/33.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch)

$32/33.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$42/43.00

Steady

X

US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)

$32/33.00

Steady

X

US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t

$37/38.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$43/44.00

Steady

X

US Gulf China: Panamax

$42/43.00

Steady

X

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$37/38.00

Steady

X

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$24/25.00

Steady

X

US PNW China: Panamax

$23/24.00

Steady

X

US East Coast Egypt: Panamax

$43/44.00

down $1.00

X

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$44/45.00

Up $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t

$35/36.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Down $1.00

X

France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch)

$23/24.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch)

$13/14.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000

$24/25.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t

$19/20.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t

$40/41.00

Down $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$39/40.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$38/39.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$33/34.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$23/24.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t

$33/34.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t

$31/32.00

Steady

X

Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t

$28/29.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t

$19/20.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Steady

X

Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t

$34/35.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t

$35/36.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Down $1.00

X

Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$34/35.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$28/29.00

Up $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$19.50/20.00

Steady

X

Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$21.50/22.00

Steady

X

Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Ukraine to China:  50,000 m/t

$35/36.00

Down $1.00

X

Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Steady

X

Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t

$28/29.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)

$13/14.00

Steady

X

Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)

$22/23.00

Down $1.00

X

Russia to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch)

$29/30.00

Up $3.00

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich)

$16/17.00

Steady

X

Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$22/23.00

Down $1.00

X

Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$33/34.00

Up $4.00

X

Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$35/36.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t

$20/21.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)

$20/21.00

Down $1.00

X

Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$24/25.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t

$19/20.00

Down $1.00

X

Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k

$27/28.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t

$37/38.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t

$12/13.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$17/18.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Yemen: 50,000 m/t

No info

 

x

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

1341

Down 104

X

Baltic Capesize Index

2011

Down 212

X

Baltic Panamax Index

1355

Down 140

X

Baltic Supramax Index

1092

Up 1

X

Baltic Handisize Index

593

No change

x

 

 

 

 


 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR July 2018/September 2018

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA

 USD 212/215

x

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA

 USD 227/232

x

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 189/192

X

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 199/203

X

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

 USD 199/202

X

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

 USD 208/211

X

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD no prices

X

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 184/188

X

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 192/195

X

   Barley, feed, Argentina

 USD 177/180 Aug/Sep

X

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 187/190

X

   Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest

 USD 220/225

X

 

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

 USD 168/171

x

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 186/189

x

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, Upriver

 USD 171/174

X

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 174/177

X

   Corn, FOB France - Atlantic

 USD 192/196

x

   Corn, FOB Romania

 USD 200/203

X

   Corn, FOB Russia

 USD 198/202

X

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 183/186

X

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD 170/174

X

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

 USD 190/194

X

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 397/401 July/Sept

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 422/426 July/Sept

X

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

 USD 402/406

X

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 372/376

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

 USD 403/407

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 374/380  

X

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 355/359

X

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 373/376

X

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 369/373

X

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 USD no prices

X

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 585>>575 m/t  

X

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 173>>163 m/t

X

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 228>>222 July/Sep

x

 

 

 

 

Everything was lower this week as DDGS prices finally caught up with the recent drop in corn and soymeal prices and we see DDGS down by about USD 10 m/t, perhaps even lower with some sellers.

 

Both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed were lower this week too – protein prices were lower all across the market.

 

However, even though we have seen steadily lower prices, the US Grains Council's weekly report did say that we could be in for a rally -- at least in DDGS prices as DDGS demand has been very good. There is nothing like falling prices to bring on demand that stops falling prices.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Australian MBM 45% protein

   Australian MBM 50% protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

 USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 450/460 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 850/870 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein

  

   USA Feathermeal, 80% protein

   USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

 USD 450/460 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 440/450 to Indonesia

 USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 870/900 m/t CNF Asia

 

As can be expected, with most grains and oilseeds slipping lower, the price for animal proteins into the major markets in Asia were a little lower this week – perhaps by USD 10 m/t. At least one trade report said that main buyers held quite heavy stock levels so new export business was hard to find. There were also still some holidays in parts of Asia for the Eid after Ramadan --- everyone was back to work by the end of the week, but things were still very quiet in Asia.

 

US domestic and export prices were steady in the week but the weakness in soymeal prices and the growing inventories of animal protein in the US could push prices lower or, if not lower, keeping them steady. While soymeal prices were steady to a little higher at the end of this week there didn't seem to be any reason to expect higher prices for animal proteins in the near term.

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Getting very close to the full quota now with the catch up to just over 3.21 million m/t – looks like only a couple or so more days to finish the quota off.

 

Some of the trade reports this week were saying that there is actually very little fishmeal unsold with somewhere between 50,000 and 100,000 m/t maximum to be available to cover all business to the next season in November. This estimated low stock level should mean that prices are going to move higher over the next few weeks as the last few buyers fight for whatever is left over.

MSI Ceres mentioned in their report this week that the shipping positions from Peru are all booked into August and that even August may be tight for containers.

 

Trade reports also show some business being done to Europe --- sales to Europe had been very quiet so far in 2018 so Europe is welcomed back.

 

Looking at the Peru fishmeal export numbers up to the end of May – China is about 84% of the business and if you add in Vietnam, Japan and Taiwan that gets you up to about 93% of all Peru fishmeal exports – certainly shows you that Peru's market is in Asia.

 

 

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Herring fishmeal

72% protein

1,645

Danish fishmeal

64% protein

1,480

Peru fishmeal

64% protein

1,470

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,520

Iceland fishmeal

70% protein

1,615

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein 

1300/1320 m/t

 

   65/66 protein

1330/1350 m/t

 

   67% protein standard steam

1370/1390 m/t

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1450/1470 m/t

No prices

   67% protein 120 TVN

1500/1520 m/t

No prices

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1550/1570 m/t

1600/1620

   68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN

1600/1620 m/t

1620/1640

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

1300/1350

1270/1300

   Fish oil, crude drums

1400/1450

 

   Fish oil, flexi tank

1500/1550

 

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

1700/1800

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2018 Wayne S. Bacon