Saturday, November 09, 2019

Weekly Report -- November 09, 2019

 
HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

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WEEKLY GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT November 09, 2019

 

We had all the USDA WASDE and WASDE related report issued on Friday and overall it seems to have been much of a non-event. At least for Friday there was no strong reaction in the markets – perhaps there will be more reaction on Monday.

 

Next week is Global Grain in Geneva where all of us grain folks will gather with the kickoff speaker to be Dan Basse and it will be interesting to hear if he can come up with anything at all bullish for grains and oilseeds.

 

For corn the WASDE report showed lower production and lower ending stocks but the changes were so small that no one much noticed. While there was an initial push higher in futures it didn't last and on the cash side of things prices don't have any strength at all --- there is just too much corn everywhere and, for US corn, too little export business.   

 

Soybeans too didn't do to well with the WASDE or with Donald Trump. The WASDE didn't actually change much but "the Donald" did as he seemed to be cooling off a little on a quick agreement with China on anything – he says that he is "quite happy" with the current situation (I guess that he doesn't grow any soybeans around his golf courses).

 

There was also little new information on wheat and everyone in the world seems to have wheat mountains this year – there was nothing in the WASDE that would move wheat prices higher.

 

So, it looks like the trend is now set to be steady to lower for all rains until we get some exciting news and about the only place that that can happen now is in South America, where crops for 2020 are looking to be at or near record levels.

 

 

    Top 20 US Export Destinations for Grains and Oilseeds –

9 months to September 2019 – in m/t

 

Country

 

Wheat

Corn

Sorghum

Soybeans

Soymeal

Algeria

565,900

 

 

30,100

 

Argentina

 

 

 

203,000

 

Bangladesh

37,100

 

 

616,800

25,200

Brazil

192,300

 

 

 

 

Belgium

 

 

 

33,000

38,600

Burma

 

 

 

15,800

122,500

Cameroon

 

 

20,700

 

 

Canada

87,800

1,782,200

3,700

462,200

675,300

Chile

318,000

 

 

15,000

 

China

42,000

250,000

628,200

13,949,300

 

Colombia

487,100

2,869,100

 

471,500

873,700

Costa Rica

70,300

650,900

 

195,500

61,100

Cuba

 

58,000

 

42,100

 

Djibouti

 

 

59,100

 

90,400

Dominican Rep

212,000

345,500

 

19,000

397,900

Ecuador

249,200

27,600

 

 

431,300

El Salvador

202,900

523,200

 

 

200,800

Egypt

726,700

 

 

1,815,700

 

Eritrea

 

 

60,300

 

 

Ethiopia

170,800

 

5,800

 

 

France

 

 

 

95,200

 

Germany

 

 

 

400,600

 

Guatemala

438,500

820,800

 

 

319,100

Haiti

115,400

43,200

 

 

 

Honduras

233,700

460,900

 

 

206,800

Indonesia

1,028,700

3,800

 

1,964,700

30,300

Iraq

472,500

 

 

 

 

Israel

112,400

75,900

 

76,700

123,200

Italy

391,300

 

36,600

319,000

58,200

Jamaica

133,300

161,100

 

 

76,400

Japan

1,881,000

9,283,900

189,700

1,803,100

222,800

Kenya

124,500

 

600

 

 

Lebanon

 

 

 

48,700

 

Madagascar

 

 

2,100

 

 

Malaysia

394,300

22,300

 

477,100

 

Mexico

2,634,600

11,006,800

372,400

3,754,100

1,291,100

Morocco

 

61,800

 

 

243,000

Nepal

 

 

 

86,100

 

Netherlands

 

 

 

1,469,700

 

New Zealand

 

126,600

 

 

 

Nigeria

1,796,900

 

 

20,800

 

Nicaragua

 

252,000

 

 

87,300

Pakistan

 

 

 

402,400

 

Panama

71,600

356,200

 

20,800

151,200

Peru

312,800

1,029,900

 

180,000

123,900

Philippines

2,254,800

71,500

500

81,700

1,601,300

Poland

 

 

 

 

127,200

Portugal

 

 

 

160,000

 

Romania

 

 

 

 

49,700

Saudi Arabia

30,100

477,500

 

 

 

Somalia

 

 

71,200

 

 

South Africa

153,700

 

54,500

 

 

South Korea

917,700

1,870,500

1,400

819,600

60,400

Spain

 

500

371,700

874,400

69,500

Sri Lanka

68,100

 

 

 

151,200

Sudan

53,100

 

85,600

 

 

Taiwan

876,700

1,054,000

6,500

1,176,200

16,300

Thailand

508,300

 

 

705,500

130,700

Trinidad

89,800

56,600

 

 

19,200

Tunisia

 

 

 

64,400

33,700

UK

25,300

 

 

116,600

 

Venezuela

63,100

4,500

 

 

98,100

Vietnam

136,400

65,000

 

283,200

468,200

Yemen

610,000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

@USDA GATS November 2019

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)

$19/20.00

 

X

US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$19/20.00

 

X

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t

$30/31.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch)

$29/30.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t

$31/32.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$37/38.00

 

X

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch)

$36/37.00

 

X

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$55/56.00

 

X

US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)

$39/40.00

 

X

US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t

$42/43.00

 

X

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$48/49.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf China: Panamax

$47/48.00

Down $1.00

X

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$37/38.00

 

X

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$26/27.00

Down $1.00

X

US PNW China: Panamax

$25/26.00

Down $1.00

X

US East Coast Egypt: Panamax

$56/57.00

 

X

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$56/57.00

 

X

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$19/20.00

 

X

France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t

$40/41.00

 

X

France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t

$39/40.00

Down $1.00

x

France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)

$18/19.00

 

X

France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Down $1.00

X

France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch)

$22/23.00

 

X

France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch)

$16/17.00

 

X

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000

$31/32.00

 

X

France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t

$44/45.00

 

X

France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t

$18/19.00

 

X

France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t

$52/53.00

 

X

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$32/33.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$39/40.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$38/39.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$24/25.00

 

X

Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t

$24/25.00

 

X

Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$27/28.00

 

X

Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t

$42/43.00

 

X

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t

$43/44.00

 

X

Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t

$42/43.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t

$24/25.00

 

X

Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$32/33.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t

$20/21.00

 

X

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t

$38/39.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t

$36/37.00

Down $1.00

X

Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t

$35/36.00

Down $1.00

X

Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t

$28/29.00

 

X

Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t

$35/36.00

 

X

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$44/45.00

 

X

Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t

$28/29.00

 

X

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$31/32.00

 

X

 

 

 

 

Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$20.50/21

 

X

Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$21/21.50

 

X

Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t

$32/33.00

 

X

 

 

 

 

Ukraine to China:  50,000 m/t

$31/32.00

 

X

Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t

No prices

 

X

Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t

No prices

 

X

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)

$17/18.00

 

X

Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)

$25/26.00

 

X

Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) -

$25/26.00

 

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)

$16/17.00

Down $1.00

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich)

$17/18.00

Down $1.00

X

Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$25/26.00

 

X

Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$43/44.00

Up $5.00

X

Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$41/42.00

 

X

Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t

$20/21.00

 

X

Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$22/23.00

Down $1.00

X

Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)

$20/21.00

 

X

Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$26/27.00

Down $1.00

X

Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t

$25/26.00

 

X

Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k

$30/31.00

Down $2.00

X

Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t

$41/42.00

 

X

Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t

$16/17.00

 

X

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$20/21.00

Down 2.00

X

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included)

1378

Down 319

X

Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT)

2444

Down 506

X

Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT)

1290

Down 223

X

Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT)

824

Down 221

X

Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT)

539

Down 41

X

 

 

 

 


 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR December 2019/January 2020

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

 USD 228/231

X

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

 USD 212/215

X

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 202/205

X

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 208/211

X

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

 USD 204/207

X

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

 USD 200/202

X

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 190/193

X

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 197/200

X

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 185/188

X

   Barley, feed, Argentina, up river

 USD 178/181

X

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 186/189

X

 

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

 USD 174/177

X

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 193/196

X

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

 USD 163/166

X

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 173/175

X

   Corn, FOB France – Atlantic

 USD 185/187

X

   Corn, FOB Romania

 USD 166/169

X

   Corn, FOB Russia

 USD 170/173

X

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 164/167

X

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD 141/144

X

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

 USD 179/182

X

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 344/347

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 369/372

X

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

 USD 350/33

X

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 318/321

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

 USD 346/349

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 317/320

X

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 362/365

X

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 354/357

X

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 375/378  

X

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 USD 361/364

X

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 500/510 m/t  

x

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 191/194 m/t

X

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 203/208 m/t

X

 

 

 

 

The market was quite interesting for DDGS this week because, as corn prices were moving lower, DDGS prices took a little late week jump higher. Depending on who you talked to the US DDGS prices, inside the US, were up by USD 3 to 5 m/t. Most trades feel that DDGS prices will slip lower again next week as no one want to pay USD 5 m/t more for DDGS.

 

Corn gluten meal prices were steady, but it is said that corn gluten feed has increased for export which seems to be mainly due to transport and logistics problems.

 

With both corn and soymeal prices lower one would not expect to see any price increase for corn by-products.

 

 

USA exports of corn by-products – 9 months to September 2019 – major destinations and selected countries – in m/t

 

Country

Distillers

Dried Grains

DDGS

2019

Corn

Gluten Meal

 

2019

Corn

Gluten Feed

 

2019

Australia

 

2,500

 

Bangladesh

142,900

24,900

 

Burma

43,700

600

600

Cambodia

34,300

 

 

Canada

482,800

44,000

 

Chile

 

96,800

 

China

118,000

13,300

 

Colombia

130,900

62,600

22,100

Costa Rica

66,100

 

 

Ecuador

21,200

2,400

 

Egypt

96,600

111,500

15,500

El Salvador

47,000

4,700

 

Guatemala

46,400

2,100

1,800

Honduras

44,300

6,000

 

Indonesia

682,600

111,700

8,200

Ireland

222,600

 

251,200

Israel

193,300

 

155,900

Japan

420,300

7,300

 

Malaysia

44,500

27,500

 

Mexico

1,538,900

13,600

26,700

Morocco

193,400

 

34,600

New Zealand

161,900

 

32,200

Peru

10,100

6,700

 

Philippines

195,800

1,800

700

Portugal

14,200

 

18,000

South Korea

951,000

900

 

Spain

103,400

 

 

Taiwan

174,200

24,400

 

Thailand

435,100

24.000

 

Turkey

521,100

 

125,600

UK

149,700

 

51,100

Vietnam

921,200

15,000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

@USDA GATS November 2019

 

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Australian MBM 45% protein

   Australian MBM 50% protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

 USD 360/370 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 700/710 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein

  

   USA Feathermeal, 80% protein

   USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

 USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 380/390 to Indonesia

 USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 380/400 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 600/650 m/t CNF Asia

 

The market for animal protein to major markets in Asia is said to be quite weak this week with buyers bidding well under the prices shown above. The situation is complicated by a drop in China demand due to African Swine Fever along with more than adequate supplies being seen from most major exporting countries. Supply seems to be overwhelming demand.

 

It looks like Asia buyers will be seeing some bargain prices for meat and bone meal and poultry meal for the next few weeks.

 

In the US domestic market, prices seemed to be reasonably steady, but the Jacobsen report did say that there was quite bit of pressure on poultry meal prices and that lower poultry meal is tending to push US feathermeal prices lower.

 

You would be very hard pressed to find anyone who expects to see higher prices.

 

 

USA exports of animal protein – 9 months to September 2019 – major destinations – in m/t

 

Destination

Meat and bone meal – includes poultry and pork meal

 

Feather meal

 

Burma

4,000

 

Cambodia

1,500

 

Canada

38,600

6,700

Chile

28,200

33,300

China

108,700

3,600

Colombia

1,000

 

Ecuador

23,600

500

Germany

 

 

Guatemala

2,000

 

Honduras

4,900

1,400

Indonesia

171,100

18,100

Jamaica

 

 

Malaysia

8,400

 

Mexico

147,600

 

Peru

1,600

1,000

Philippines

22,500

200

Sri Lanka

1,900

 

Thailand

23,300

 

Vietnam

59,800

1,700

 

 

 

Total exports

650,000

Up 42.0%

66,700

Down 23.0%

@USDA GATS November 2019

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Herring fishmeal

72% protein

1,820

Danish fishmeal

64% protein

1,370

Peru fishmeal

64% protein

1,430

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,520

Iceland fishmeal

70% protein

1,740

 

 

 

There is some exploratory fishing being done in Peru this week – in the North-Central zone and 5 miles offshore – and any fish landed will be deducted from the quota when it is announced. So far about 27,000 m/t of anchovy have been landed.

 

There is very little that can be added to the comments this week as the entire industry has been in China and no one will be issuing any market reports until next week.

 

Prices are steady, although there seems to be a little weakness in European prices. There was a report that the Super Prime 68 protein prices had jumped higher but that has not been confirmed as yet.

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65/66 protein

1050/1070 m/t

 

   67% protein standard steam

1100/1120 m/t

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1150/1170 m/t

No prices

   67% protein 120 TVN

1200/1220 m/t

1200/1220

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1250/1270 m/t

1250/1270

   68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN

1300/1320 m/t

1300/1320

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

1800/1850

 

   Fish oil, crude drums

1850/1900

 

   Fish oil, flexi tank

1950/2000

 

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

2000/2200

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2019 Wayne S. Bacon