Saturday, January 28, 2017

Weekly report - Jan 28, 2017

 
HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

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WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   January 28, 2017

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

It was a down week for US grain and oilseed prices this week --- not a major down week but just a nice slide lower – especially for soybeans which were lower by about USD 6 m/t followed by soymeal at about USD 5 m/t lower. Corn and wheat prices were also down on the week but not really enough to get excited about with both being down by no more than about USD 2 m/t.

 

According to trade reports, the grain business has gone very quiet – at least for the week. There has been some good news from Brazil in that all the corn crop has been planted with little or no problem – no serious trouble due to flooding and the Brazil weather now looks good for starting the new crop off. One question that has surfaced about corn is the relationship of the US with Mexico now that Donald Trump is the man --- will Mexico still be the major export destination for US corn. Of course, a bad relationship with Mexico could also affect US soybean and sorghum exports. It will be interesting to see what develops as Mexico does need the grain and the US is right next door.

 

On soybeans, the flooding in Argentina has had an effect on the projected crop with the government showing soybean crop forecasts that are about 6 percent lower than the recent USDA soybean crop estimates. While soybeans and soymeal were both down on the week many experts are saying that almost any small event could start a rally in soybean prices --- so watch for negative weather events in Argentina.

 

There was the comment in a couple of trade reports that the verbal sparring between the US and Mexico may not be as bad as the news reports would have us believe and that both countries need each other's business, no matter what is said about immigration. Perhaps NAFTA will survive all of this rhetoric.

 

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)

$15.00/15.50

Up $0.50

x

US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$24/25.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT

$23/24.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)

$22/23.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000

$24/25.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$22/23.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch)

$24/25.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$52/53.00

Steady

x

US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)

$26/27.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$35/36.00

Steady

x

US Gulf China: Panamax

$33/34.00

Steady

x

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$37/38.00

Steady

x

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$18/19.00

Steady

x

US PNW China: Panamax

$17/18.00

Steady

x

US East Coast Egypt: Panamax

$45/46.00

Steady

x

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$53/54.00

Steady

x

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$22/23.00

Down $1.00

x

France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)

$16/17.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$35/36.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$21/22.00

Down $1.00

x

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000

$27/28.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t

$36/37.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t

$51/52.00

Down $1.00

x

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$30/31.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$30/31.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$31/32.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t

$23/24.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t

$45/46.00

Steady

X

Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$30/31.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$30/31.00

Up $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t

$31/32.00

Down $1.00

X

Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t

$24/25.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Up $1.00

x

Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t

$30/31.00

Down $1.00

X

Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t

$28/29.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$40/41.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$24/25.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$18.00/18.50

Steady

X

Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$18.50/19.00

Steady

X

Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Down $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Ukraine to China:  50,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Down $1.00

x

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)

$17/18.00

Steady

X

Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)

$17/18.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich)

$18/19.00

Up $1.00

X

Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$25/26.00

Down $1.00

X

Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$21/22.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)

$13/14.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$20/21.00

Down $1.00

X

Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k

$23/24.00

Down $1.00

X

Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t

$34/35.00

Down $1.00

X

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$19/20.00

Steady

x

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

827

Down 98

x

Baltic Capesize Index

1239

Down 371

x

Baltic Panamax Index

968

Down 2

x

Baltic Supramax Index

692

Down 26

x

Baltic Handisize Index

419

Down 22

x

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR February 2017/April 2017

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA

 USD 186>>182

x

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein

 USD 204>>201

x

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 180/184

x

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 183/186

x

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

 USD 184/188

x

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

 USD 191/193

x

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver

 USD 179/182

x

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 171/175

x

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 162/164

x

   Barley, feed, Argentina

 USD 153/158

x

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 169/171

x

   Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest

 USD 185/195

x

 

 

 

   Corn, FOB NOLA USA

 USD 168>>164

x

   Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 182>>175

x

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

 USD 170/176

x

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 181/184

x

   Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 167/172

X

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 188/190

x

   Corn, FOB Romania

 USD 172/175

x

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

 USD 168/172

x

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD 158/162

x

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 395/400

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 420/425

x

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

 USD 390/395

x

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 366/370

x

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

 USD 380/385

x

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 348/353

x

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 400/405

x

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 400/405

x

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 403/408

x

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 USD 400/405

x

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD  610/620 m/t

x

   Corn Gluten Meal, CNF Egypt

 USD  690/700 m/t

X

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD  145/150 m/t

X

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD  153/157 m/t

x

 

There haven't been any major changes in corn by-product prices this week – corn gluten meal was up a little from some exporters with DDGS prices also a little higher in export markets --- although the domestic prices for DDGS in the US seemed to be a little lower.

 

The US Grains Council's weekly Market Perspectives report was saying the DDGS prices in export ports were up by about USD 8 m/t but this seems just a little higher than trade reports would suggest.

 

Soymeal prices were a little lower this week but this did not seem to have any effect on corn by-product prices but then soymeal was only down by about USD 5 m/t. However, if the price of soymeal drifts lower then DDGS and corn gluten meal should follow.

 

Also, for corn gluten meal, with fishmeal prices moving a little lower this could affect the export demand for CGM and may cause CGM prices to drop.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein

   Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein

   Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein

 USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia

   Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein

 USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia

   Australian MBM 45 protein

   Australian MBM 50 protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

 USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein

   USA Feathermeal, 80 protein

   USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

 USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 570/590 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 820/840 m/t CNF Asia

 

Animal protein business from Asia is expected to fall off over the next few days as the Chinese New Year holidays take effect in many countries. There was a little flurry of demand just prior to the holidays but not enough to change market prices much. Business from both Australia and New Zealand was quiet into the main Asian markets.

 

There was little or no change in the export prices for any animal protein items this week. However, in the US domestic market, feathermeal moved a little higher while, according to the Jacobsen report, meat and bone meal prices were feeling a little soft.

 

There doesn't seem to be much of a price trend in the animal protein market at present – it is just up a little then down a little and tends to follow soymeal price changes reasonably closely.   

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Well how is that for a great finish to the quota – the last numbers that I have are up to the 26th and show 1.95 million m/t (just over 450,000 m/t of fishmeal) landed which is certainly much better than anyone had expected. Final adjustments to the catch numbers may raise the total a little but no one at all should be unhappy with the catch to date.

 

The Southern Peru fishing is coming along a little but will now probably pick up as some vessels are expected to move south – total catch in the south is at about 13,000 m/t.

 

Prices in Peru have dropped a little this week from some exporters and this may be due to the Chinese being out of the market due to the New Year holiday. The MSI Ceres report this week say that they feel there is only about 50,000 m/t of fishmeal that is unsold – not much to cover from now to the next fishing season. MSI Ceres also says that there could be about 20,000 m/t in futures sales which may have to come out of the current balance or could be from the next season.

 

On the export side of things, China represents just a little over 70 percent of Peruvian fishmeal exports for 2016 with Germany being another 10 percent and if you add in Vietnam, Japan and Taiwan that covers about 90 percent of Peru's fishmeal exports.

 

Looking at China's imports (courtesy of MSI Ceres) – total fishmeal imports were 1.04 million m/t with 42% coming from Peru, 12% from Vietnam and 10% from the USA – the balance of imports came from 17 countries.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Herring fishmeal

72% protein

1,520

Danish fishmeal

64% protein

1,380

Peru fishmeal

64% protein

1,370

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,450

Iceland fishmeal

70% protein

1,500

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein 

1240/1250 m/t

 

   65/66 protein

1270/1280 m/t

 

   67% protein standard steam

1300/1310 m/t

1350/1370

   67% protein 150 TVN

1380/1400 m/t

1400/1440

   67% protein 120 TVN

1430/1450 m/t

1450/1470

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1480/1500 m/t

1500/1520

   68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN

1530/1550 m/t

1580/1600

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

1550/1600

1500/1550

   Fish oil, crude drums

1650/1700

 

   Fish oil, flexi tank

1800/1850

 

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

2000/2300

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2017 Wayne S. Bacon