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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroUp@hammersmith.biz
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WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT July 28, 2018
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
It was another strong week for soybeans/soymeal and wheat but just kind of a steady week for corn prices. US soybean prices moved higher by USD 7 or 8 m/t with soymeal up by USD 6 to 7 m/t and what price up strongly – winter wheat by close to USD 10 m/t with spring wheat up by USD 13 m/t.
Prices this week were driven mainly by the strength in world wheat prices. Bad news about wheat crops in Europe and the Black Sea pushed all wheat prices higher and, as usual, the futures market just followed higher. As was pointe out by World Perspectives, every day seems to bring another forecast of lower wheat production somewhere in the world.
Corn prices didn't do much exciting this week and several experts say that we are now in a trading range for a while until something happens – probably something with US crop weather. The US weather doesn't look too bad for corn for now – perhaps a little cooler than normal – with decent rainfall in most areas of the US.
Much of the rally in US soybean prices is said to have been caused by people covering their shorts in the futures market which always tends to push prices up a little then set off a rush to cover more shorts. Reading the trade reports there doesn't seem to be any very good reason for a soybean price rally – at least not a long term rally. The international soybean market is still unsure of the US/China situation while Brazil looks to having an even larger soybean crop.
Crop Situation and Condition – USA and France
| France | Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Good % | Very Good % |
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| Wheat - soft | 1 | 7 | 20 | 65 | 6 |
| Wheat - hard | 4 | 10 | 24 | 61 | 1 |
| Barley, spring | 1 | 5 | 21 | 70 | 3 |
| Corn | 1 | 7 | 20 | 66 | 5 |
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| Harvested | This week % | Last week % | This week 2017 |
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| Wheat - soft | 88 | 64 | 78 |
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| Wheat - hard | 93 | 85 | 97 |
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| Barley, winter | 100 | 99 | 100 |
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| Barley, spring | 70 | 31 | 71 |
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| USA
| Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Good % | Very Good % |
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| Wheat, spring | 1 | 3 | 17 | 65 | 14 |
| Corn | 3 | 6 | 19 | 50 | 22 |
| Sorghum | 5 | 11 | 35 | 44 | 5 |
| Soybeans | 2 | 6 | 22 | 52 | 18 |
| Barley | 0 | 2 | 17 | 67 | 14 |
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| Harvested | This week % | Last week % | This week 2017 | Average 2013/17 |
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| Wheat, winter | 80 | 74 | 83 | 79 |
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Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $23/24.00 | down $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $44/45.00 | Steady | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.00/19.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.50/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | down $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $15/16.00 | down $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | down $1.00 | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1676 | Down 13 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 3197 | Down 8 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1588 | Up 31 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 1035 | Up 12 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 553 | Down 7 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2018/October 2018
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 222/230 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA | USD 243/250 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 196/200 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 207/211 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 204/208 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 237/240 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 233/239 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 188/192 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 232/235 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 177/180 Aug/Sep | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 197/200 | X |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 171/176 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 181/186 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, Upriver | USD 170/174 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 173/177 | X |
| Corn, FOB France - Atlantic | USD 209/211 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 176/180 Sep/Oct | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 193/197 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 177/180 Oct/Nov | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 167/170 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 187/190 Aug/Sep | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 398/402 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 423/427 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 411/415 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 376/380 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 408/412 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 378/382 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 349/353 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 384/389 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 396/400 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD no prices | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 572>>562 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 172>>162 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 214/222 | X |
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Nearby prices for DDGS have been pushed higher due to some logistics problems in getting product to the export ports. Producers are saying that the problems should be solved shortly with the chance that prices could drift a little lower for DDGS. However, the market reports seem to feel that the recent strength in soymeal and corn will keep DDGS prices form for a while. As was stated in the Jacobsen report this week: "modest price increases in coming weeks".
The USDA weekly domestic price report had DDGS up in all markets by USD 5 to 10 m/t with corn gluten meal said to be down by about USD 5 m/t with no price change reported for corn gluten feed.
Buyers will just have to follow soymeal/corn closely to see which way the price trend is going.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 360/370 m/t CNF Asia USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia USD 525/535 m/t CNF Asia USD 850/870 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 370/390 to Indonesia USD 630/640 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 840/860 m/t CNF Asia |
Animal protein prices into major markets in Asia were steady to a little lower this week – meat and bone meal prices tended to be about USD 10 m/t lower from most origins. Business was quite slow so exporters were looking to be a little bit more aggressive on their pricing.
Asia markets are still talking about the heavy influx of low cost meat and bone meal from the EU – non-EU sellers are having to drop their prices to get any business.
Domestic prices in the US have moved lower – especially poultry meal – as supplies are running ahead of demand for now. Feathermeal prices had been steady to higher in recent weeks but traders are saying that a drop in feathermeal prices could be on the way.
As usual, everyone is watching soymeal prices to know which way all protein prices will be going.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The fishmeal business in Peru is reported to be very quiet this past week as most major buyers are out of the market for now for next season – they are all anticipating a good fishing quota and lower prices --- or so the trade reports say. At least one trade report has said that the only buying interest for next season seems to be about USD 100 m/t below current new-season price levels.
The catch in the southern region of Peru is now at about 43,500 m/t against the quota of 535,000 m/t but this does mean that just over 10,000 m/t of fishmeal has been added to stocks. Interestingly there seems to be some disagreement as to exactly hoe much has been landed in the south with estimates ranging from the mid-40,000 up as high as 100,000 m/t.
Not much more to say about the Peru fishmeal business this week – just a quiet week.
The Hammersmith Report got a mention this week in the MSI Ceres Report – nice to know that someone actually reads the weekly report in detail. I send out this report every week (and have for at least 25 years) but one never knows if it is really being read. However, in addition to the weekly report list that I send out to a bunch of people, our blog does get about 2500 hits per week.
I had some questions this week from readers about the price collapse in the fishoil market in Peru – unfortunately I am not much of a fishoil guy so didn't have any detailed information to pass on.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,720 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,495 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,475 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,525 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,690 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1300/1320 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1350/1370 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1390/1410 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1470/1490 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1520/1540 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1570/1590 m/t | 1600/1620 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1620/1640 m/t | 1620/1640 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1400/1420 | 1400/1420 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1470/1480 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1570/1580 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1700/1800 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2018 Wayne S. Bacon
