HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
It was much of an up week for prices this week as the US crop progress report (see below) was very supportive of higher prices.
Corn was up by close to USD 5 m/t in the week but other than slow planting in the US no one much can see a good reason for higher corn prices. The farmers are out in the fields this week planting like mad and it won't take them long to get the corn in the ground --- assuming decent planting weather for a while. Experts feel that next weeks crop progress report will show corn planting in the US at about 20 percent, but this is still well below the level normally seen – 40% planted would be more normal.
US Soybeans and soymeal had a strong week with beans up by USD 6 m/t but soymeal up at least USD 15 m/t. Some experts were saying that the rally was due to expected very good export sales since US soybeans are competitive everywhere at present. There was also the report from Canada that canola planting will be down which could leave more room for US soybeans in export markets. There was also the rumor of a breakthrough in discussions with China that "may" solve the tariff problems and pump up soybean exports.
US wheat prices should have been pushed lower by increased Canada wheat plantings but that didn't happen as poor winter wheat conditions in much of the US moved prices higher. The situation for wheat in Russia and the Ukraine is getting better but rain is still needed and France is looking at the best wheat crop in a while, certainly much better than what is seen of US winter wheat.
Crop Situation and Condition – USA and France
| France | Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Good % | Very Good % |
| Condition | | | | | |
| Wheat - soft | 1 | 6 | 16 | 72 | 5 |
| Wheat - hard | 0 | 4 | 18 | 77 | 1 |
| Barley, winter | 1 | 7 | 18 | 69 | 4 |
| Barley, spring | 1 | 3 | 15 | 80 | 1 |
| | | | | | |
| Planted | This week % | Last week % | This week 2017 % | | |
| Barley, spring | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| Corn | 6 | 1 | 49 | | |
| | | | | | |
| USA | Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Good % | Very Good % |
| Condition | | | | | |
| Wheat, winter | 15 | 22 | 32 | 25 | 6 |
| | | | | | |
| Planted | This week % | Last week % | This week 2017 % | Average 2013/17 % | |
| Corn | 5 | 3 | 15 | 14 | |
| Sorghum | 24 | 20 | 24 | 23 | |
| Soybeans | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | |
| Wheat, spring | 3 | 3 | 21 | 25 | |
| Barley | 11 | 7 | 25 | 33 | |
| | | | | | |
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $42/43.00 | up $1.00 | x |
| | | | |
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | x |
| | | | |
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $39/40.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| | | | |
| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| | | | |
| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $21.50/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| | | | |
| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $26/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Russia to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Adjusted | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Yemen: 50,000 m/t | No info | | |
| | | | |
| Baltic Dry Index | 1361 | Up 80 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2251 | Up 336 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1275 | Down 14 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 1042 | Up 17 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 605 | Down 16 | x |
| | | | |
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR April 2018/June 2018
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 228>>218 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA | USD 239/244 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 205/208 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 212/215 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 209/213 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 206/209 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 221/224 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 200/203 | X |
| | | |
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 212/215 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 217/219 May/June | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 216/218 | X |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | X |
| | | |
| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 191/194 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 209>>203 May/July | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, Upriver | USD 191/194 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 178/181 July/August | x |
| Corn, FOB France - Atlantic | USD 200/203 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 206/209 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 202/205 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 203/206 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 180/184 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 183/187 May/June | x |
| | | |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 474>>468 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 499>>493 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 470/475 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 449/454 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 461/466 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 438/442 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 417/419 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 425/430 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 431/435 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD no prices | X |
| | | |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 615 >>595 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 193>>175 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 252>>236 Jun/Aug | x |
| | | |
There was almost no change in the prices for corn by-products this week even with corn moving higher on the week. However, the strong soymeal prices should allow DDGS to move higher in coming days. Corn gluten meal may not move any higher as the drop in fishmeal prices could push CGM lower in the next few weeks.
As pointed out last week, the logistics problems are getting solved and we should see the prices for by-products get back to a more normal position with the nearby premium shrinking. There has been about a USD 20 m/t premium for nearby shipment for weeks now and buyers would love to see that disappear.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 350/360 m/t CNF Asia USD 390/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 820/830 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 475/485 to Indonesia USD 550/560 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/610 m/t CNF Asia USD 900/920 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal prices in Asia are reported to be lower this week as the sudden rush of Ramadan business looks to be over leaving shippers with good supplies but not much business. There may be some room for meat and bone meal to move lower, at least in Asia. The fact that soymeal prices were up by USD 20 m/t on the week didn't have any effect on the weak MBM prices.
Meat and bone meal prices in the US were also lower this week and the trade expects that the much lower fishmeal prices will probably cause poultry meal prices to move lower.
If soymeal keep moving higher it is bound to have an effect on he price of MBM but if excess supplies continue in OZ and NZ, sellers will be tempted to keep prices low and competitive.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
We have seen some vey good fishing in the North of Peru and even with some mini-bans they were still able to get weekly landings up in the 120,000+ m/t level. The total landed is now up to over 860,000 m/t.
Prices have moved lower this week, as we all had expected, with Peru prices down by about USD 50 m/t for most grades – perhaps even lower if you believe some talk in the trade. Buyers are said to be bidding for Peruvian fishmeal at prices about USD 50 m/t lower than those shown below.
The MSI Ceres report was saying that sales to date are now up to around 470,000 m/t and that landing the full quota will give us about 770,000 m/t of fishmeal – so there is still a good chunk that can be sold ---- assuming that the full quota is caught. Business is very brisk with buyers from China lined up at the doors but not so active for buyers from Europe
MSI Ceres was also pointing out this week that export shipping position for May are now jammed as exporters have booked everything that moves and due to shipping mergers and line-sharing there are not as many vessels calling Peru this year.
Looks like very bust days for a while now for Peruvian fishmeal.
The IFFO report this week showed their idea of the details on Morocco fishmeal shipments – they show Morocco shipping about 22,000 m/t in Jan/Feb of this year with Turkey taking 7,700 m/t followed by Germany with 5,400 m/t then China at 4,300 m/t. Looking back a few years, most Morocco fishmeal went to Europe – not any more.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,830 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,550 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,570 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,620 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,840 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
| | | |
| 65% protein | 1260/1270 m/t | |
| 65/66 protein | 1310/1320 m/t | |
| 67% protein standard steam | 1380/1390 m/t | |
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1450/1460 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1500/1510 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1550/1560 m/t | 1600/1620 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1610 m/t | 1650/1670 |
| | | |
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1700/1750 | No info |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1800/1850 | |
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1900/1950 | |
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2000/2100 | |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2018 Wayne S. Bacon
