Hammersmith Reports
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT August 26, 2023
Soymeal prices were higher on strong export sales and the strength in soybeans. If soybean crop yields are expected to drop while soymeal export sales are strong then up should be the direction for soymeal prices.
Corn prices didn’t really do too much this week, but most trade reports seem to feel that the weather will be pushing prices higher as the expectations of lower yields should keep corn prices steady to higher.
USA wheat prices were calm this week although spring wheat did manage to move about USD 5 m/t lower. There was quite a bit of comment in trade reports that total world wheat production and stocks are not all that great – so, when you add the Black Sea to that, wheat prices could be vulnerable to a rally.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $26.00 | Steady | |
$26.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $32.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $32.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $33.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $33.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $34.00 | Up $1.00 | |
$42.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $35.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $51.00 | Steady | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $28.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $27.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $61.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $24.00 | Down $1.00 | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $64.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $59.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $51.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $58.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $60.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $51.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $59.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $41.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $42.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $47.00 | steady | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $63.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $58.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $47 Russia | Ukraine $57 | |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60 Russia | Ukraine $77 | |
Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | $35 Russia | Ukraine $56 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $17 Russia | Ukraine $45 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $16 Russia | Ukraine $35 | |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $42 Russia | Ukraine $61 | |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia | Ukraine $32 | |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $24 Russia | Ukraine $49 | |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $23 Russia | Ukraine $48 | |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $53 | |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $25 Russia | Ukraine $50 | |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $38 Russia | Ukraine $71 | |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $16 Russia | Ukraine $40 | |
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | ||
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $31.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $62.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $69.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Baltic Dry Index | 1080 | Down 157 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 1174 | Down 422 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1449 | Down 93 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 908 | Up 29 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 507 | Up 38 | |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 1530 | Up 29 | |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR September 2023/November 2023
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 242<<265 Dec | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 315<<330 Dec | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 205/210 | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 250/255 | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 250/255 | |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 254<<265 Dec | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 290/295 | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 220/225 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 234/237 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 235/240 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 195/205 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 250/255 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 210<<225 Dec | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 240<<255 Dec | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 205<<220 Dec | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 220<<230 Dec | |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 245/248 | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 210/215 | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 205/210 | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 190/195 | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 275/280 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 260>>240 Nov | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 510>>500 Dec | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 540>>530 Dec | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 505/510 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 525/530 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 485/490 | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 550>>540 Dec | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 540>>535 Dec | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 550>>545 Dec | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 525/530 Ukraine | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 640/650 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 220/230 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 260>>255 Dec | |
No change in prices for corn coproducts this week even with soymeal prices moving higher. It wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see prices move higher next week if the strength in soymeal prices continue. It is also expected that CNF prices will increase as ocean freight rates are moving a little higher --- up by USD 1 or 2 to main destinations.
Corn prices didn’t change much this week so most of the interest will be in soymeal.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Nothing new to report on fishing in Peru – everyone is just waiting and speculating on what will happen with the next north/Central quota and wondering if the Southern quota will ever be announced.
Trade reports say that arrivals of non-Peru/Chile fishmeal are expected to be “massive” which is pushing prices lower in China. Fishmeal stocks in China are seen rising due to all the new arrivals. Port stocks of fishmeal are reported to be up by about 16% to 162,000 m/t.
Looking at the July fishmeal arrivals in China, with Peru out of the game for now, the largest suppliers are Vietnam, Russia, Chile, India, Thailand and Mexico.
The IMARPE cruises in advance of the next season are expected to begin shortly and run through until late September which could mean that the new quota could happen sometime in October.
As to prices, no one is forecasting a drop in world prices for the next 3 months --- we will see what happens when Peru gets fishing again.
PERU “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,230 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,865 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 2,115 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 2,115 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,100 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 2250/2270 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 2300/2320 | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 2350/2370 | 2150/2170 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2400/2420 | 2100/2120 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2450.2470 | 2150/2170 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,400/5,500 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 9,000+ | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
