3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Phone : +33.6.8068.4564
Email : wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW : hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT February 25, 2023
The problem with US wheat prices, according to trade reports, seems to be the lack of competitiveness of US wheat in export markets and the poor recent export numbers. Higher ending stocks for wheat help to move prices lower. However, some trade reports did say that this big drop may have US prices for wheat at a low for the year with potential to move higher --- well, we will see.
Like wheat, US corn exports have not been at all exciting with US corn having a lot of trouble competing in export markets. Trade reports at the end of the week seemed convinced that US corn prices will be moving lower.
Interestingly both soybeans and soymeal had a quiet week. Soybeans were about unchanged on the week while soymeal did move up by USD 3 to 5 m/t. Soybean futures prices are still up near the contract highs but there is concern that prices may have to move lower if US beans are to be able to stay competitive in the export market. Trade reports also said that soymeal end-users have been looking far and wide for lower cost protein alternative to soymeal --- not too easy to find as all protein items are currently at very high price levels.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Steady |
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| $24/25.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $35/36.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $36/37.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $38/39.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41/42.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| US Gulf China: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $60/61.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| US PNW China: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $44/45.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | Closed | Steady |
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| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | Closed | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $31/32.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $83/84.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80/81.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $53/54.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Jordan | $37/38.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $30/31.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46/47.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33/34.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $67/68.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Argentina to China: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $72/73.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $66/67.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $68/69.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $67/68.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $69/70.00 | Up $1.0 |
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| Brazil to China: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Down $3.00 |
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| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Down $3.00 |
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| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $68/69.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | N/A |
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| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $77/78.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $76/77.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | Russia $55 Ukraine $60 |
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| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | Russia $48 Ukraine $53 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $15 Russia $24 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $18 Russia $31 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $50 Russia $55 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $31/32.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $30/31.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $32/33.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $16 Russia $18 Romania |
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| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady |
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| Russia to Turkey – coaster 3 to 5,000 m/t | $71.00 | Up $4.00 |
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| Russia to Egypt – coaster 3 to 5,000 m/t | $100.00 | Steady |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 883 | Up 345 |
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| Baltic Capesize Index | 636 | Up 365 |
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| Baltic Panamax Index | 1271 | Up 460 |
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| Baltic Supramax Index | 996 | Up 301 |
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| Baltic Handisize Index | 505 | Up 67 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 1984 | Down 7 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR March 2023/May 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 312>>297 July |
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| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 375>>362 July |
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| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 275/280 |
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| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 295/300 |
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| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 295/300 |
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| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 300/305 |
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| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 340/345 |
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| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 270/255 July |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 285/300 |
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| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 320/325 |
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| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 270/275 |
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| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 280/285 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 290>>285 July |
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| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 310>>305 July |
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| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 290>>260 July |
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| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 300>>270 July |
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| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 300/305 |
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| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 265/270 |
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| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 265/270 |
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| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 255/260 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 310/320 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 360/365 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 610>>570 July |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 640>>600 July |
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| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 575>>535 July |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 605/610 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 565>>515 July |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 595>>590 July |
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| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 575>>570 July |
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| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 565<<570 July |
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| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 810/815 |
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| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 285/290 |
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| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 340>>330 July |
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Corn byproduct process were mainly steady on the week but with the drop in prices for corn this week, perhaps we will see some weakness next week.
According to the US Grains Council container prices for DDGS to Asia were down by USD 10-15 m/t --- almost all of the price drop was due to lower ocean freight prices for containers.
Corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed both had steady export prices this week but the lower container freight will make CNF prices much more attractive.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Not much being landed in the south these days – just under 600 m/t of fish last week.
The IMARPE research cruise for the next fishing season has started – up to 10 vessels will take part in the research cruise.
Business is very quiet in Peru with just a few small lots being sold as overall the trade is said to be totally sold out for this season.
Peru's fishmeal exports in January reached just over 101,000 m/t with 87% going to China – 88,400 m/t.
Trade reports say that China has very good stocks of fishmeal so are not expected to rush back to the market.
No idea yet what the next fishing quota in Peru may be and when it will start. No speculation on the quota so far but the season start date could be early April, late April or May --- just guessing.
According to 2022 numbers published by MSI Ceres, Peru shipped 78% of its fishmeal to China while import by China from Peru represented 48.8% of total fishmeal imports. Peru's total fishmeal exports of 1.07 million m/t in 2022 were down by 11.3% versus 2021. Shipments to China were down by about 14.0%. China's fishmeal imports showed strong growth from Vietnam, Russia, Pakistan and India.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,080 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,735 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,795 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,825 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,045 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1640/1650 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1690/1700 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1740/1750 m/t | 1740/1750 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1790/1800 m/t | 1780/1790 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1840/1850 m/t | 1820/1830 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | No prices |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
