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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT September 25, 2021
Except for US wheat prices, most everything in grains and oilseeds looked quiet on the week. Both USA spring and winter wheat were up by about USD 6 m/t while corn, soybean and soymeal were almost unchanged on the week.
The USA weather looks very good for the harvest to race along, which could put more harvest pressure on prices. However, early below expectation corn crop yields may stop prices from moving lower. If the crop yields improve as the harvest progresses than we should see some renewed pressure on prices – the next couple of weeks of harvest could make quite a difference – we will all be watching the yields closely.
Wheat prices were higher due to higher world wheat prices and some limited concerns over how international wheat production will go in late 2021 into 2022. The USA crop is finished and in the bin so now we are just following world wheat prices and demand --- and for now all seems steady to higher.
Russian export tax – September 29 to October 05 – wheat USD 53.50 m/t – up USD 2.60, barley USD 35.30 m/t – up USD 4.30 m/t and corn USD 46.30 m/t – down USD 1.50 m/t.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $67/68.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $67/68.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $68/69.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $64/65.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $67/68.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $69/70.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $83/84.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $82/83.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $54/55.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | No price |
| X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $64/65.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $23/24.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $71/72.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $51/52.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $59/60.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $73/74.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $72/73.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Libya: 25/30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $72/73.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | No price |
| X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $42/42.50 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Down #1.00 | X |
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| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Indonesia: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $70/71.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $64/65.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $63/64.00 | Up $7.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) | $45/46.00 | Up $7.00 | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $63/64.00 | Up $7.00 | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $65/66.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $51/52.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $40/41.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $55/56.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | No prices |
| X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $37/38.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – (no Handisize included) | 4644 | Up 369 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 7393 | Up 973 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 4012 | Up 108 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (45,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 3359 | Up 52 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 1925 | Up 64 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR October 2021/December 2021
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 310/314 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 345>>337 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 295/298 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 300/307 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 304/309 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 306/308 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 280/285 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 288/292 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 275/278 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 270/275 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 261/265 | X |
| Barley, feed, Australia | No price | x |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 276>>269 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 288>>278 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 238/246 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 261/265 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 275/278 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 263/267 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 262/265 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 261/264 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 220/225 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 294/297 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 426/430 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 461/465 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 470/475 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 406>>393 January | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 470/475 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 415>>394 January | X |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 529>>524 January | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 552>>532 January | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 553>>524 January | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 572/575 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 670/690 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 250/260 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 265/275 m/t | x |
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There was some discussion this week on how the shortage of fishmeal in world markets is keeping the demand and price high for US 60 protein corn gluten meal. Seems that many buyers in Asia, especially in Indonesia, are buying up CGM to fill the place that is normally for fishmeal. With the fishmeal situation probably not changing until December or later – when we have new fishmeal supply from Peru – then we may be living with the very high CNF corn gluten meal prices into 2022.
USA DDGS prices are said to be steady to a tad lower this week – at least in the domestic market. However, it is more difficult to get a good idea of export prices. The US Grains Council shows US Gulf indication prices for October/November at about USD 260 m/t, which is down a little from last week, but CNF Asia prices are said to be USD 10 m/t higher – due mainly to freight and logistics.
There doesn't appear to be any good reason, in the short term, to expect any drop in corn byproduct prices.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 525/545 m/t CNF Asia USD 670/680 m/t CNF Asia USD 1000/1020 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 590/610 m/t CNF China USD 560/600 to Indonesia USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 990/1010 m/t CNF Asia |
The trade reports that meat and bone meal CNF prices into major markets in Asia are trending higher this week due to both good demand and increasing container freight costs. According to the Jacobsen Report, the very tight shipping situation out of the USA has opened the door for Australia and New Zealand to do more business at higher prices.
USA domestic prices are still moving lower as the export shipment backlog is putting downward pressure on the market --- if you can't export it, you still have to sell it. Every animal protein item is moving lower in the US internal market. However, lower domestic prices are not really affecting export prices as the cost and complication of containerized shipment is keeping CNF prices high.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
It is reported that the crew on a recent container vessel in Callao, Peru tested positive for Covid19 which meant that the ship was not allowed to dock for 14 days --- this has certainly messed up the container shipping and receiving business for everything --- including fishmeal exports. According to trade reports as much as 10,000 m/t of fishmeal in containers was to load on the vessel. Container loading demurrage and container port costs will be high. MSI Ceres reports that full containers are being taken out of the port to avoid port storage costs.
The container line – MSC – has said that container freight increases that were to start on October 01 will not apply to the containers booked for the quarantined vessel. There is also a lot of speculation and comment on who is going to be responsible for all the related costs on the delayed shipment. I hope that everyone has read up on force majeure rules.
Fishmeal prices moved higher by about USD 20 m/t this week as buyers are trying to get a little of the next production booked. The feeling in the trade seems to be that the next fishing period will not see any/much weakness in fishmeal prices as the new fishing quota is not expected to be all that great but demand just keeps chugging along.
For now, it looks like steady to higher for fishmeal prices.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,975 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,475 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,600 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,640 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,005 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1400/1420 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1470/1490 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1520/1540 m/t | 1500/1520 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1570/1590 m/t | 1550/1570 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1620/1640 m/t | 1620/1640 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1670/1690 m/t | 1650/1670 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2100 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 2050/2150 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2100/2200 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2400/2500 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2021 Wayne S. Bacon
