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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT April 30, 2022
Prices in the US were sort of up and down this week – corn finished the week with both old crop and new crop moving about USD 10 m/t higher. Old crop corn remains at about a USD 20 m/t premium over new crop. Soybeans had a relatively quiet week for prices by soymeal did drop by close to USD 20 m/t. Winter wheat was also down quite a bit with Soft Red dropping by about USD 7 m/t while Hard Red was down by closer to USD 15 m/t.
The harvest of soybeans in Argentina is running along quicker than expected which may put some pressure on soybean export prices but most trade reports still look at soybeans/soymeal as being bullish.
Wheat prices were lower on the arrival of much needed rainfall over the wheat regions of the US. Experts are now saying that there is a chance that the winter wheat quality will improve prior to harvest due to the late arriving rains. Much of the price weakness was due to worrying commodities traders selling their long positions and taking profits before the market moves lower.
May 05 to May 12, Russian export grain taxes are at: wheat USD 120.10 m/t – up USD 1.00, barley USD 73.50 m/t – up USD 0.20 m/t and corn USD 58.30 m/t – up USD 3.40 m/t.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $32/33.00 | Up $2.00 |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $2.00 |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $72/73.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $72/73.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $73/74.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $72/73.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $73/74.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $64/65.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $74/75.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $60/61.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $79/80.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $78/79.00 | Steady |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $72/73.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $62/63.00 | Steady |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $66/67.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $69/70.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $28/29.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $65/66.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $82/83.00 | Up $1.00 |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $55/56.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $26/27.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $84/85.00 | Up $1.00 |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $38/39.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $65/66.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $76/77.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $62/63.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $66/67.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $90/91.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $65/66.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $66/67.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $65/66.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $68.69.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $90/91.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $76/77.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $28/29.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $32/33.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $34/35.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $33/34.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $35/36.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $27/28.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $56/57.00 | Steady |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 2404 | Up 97 |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2136 | Up 291 |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 2938 | Down 66 |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 2734 | Up 56 |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 1593 | Up 89 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 8955 | Down 187 |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR May 2022/July 2022
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 426>>420 August |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 466>>460 August |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | No prices |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 380>>355 August |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 390>>355 August |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 425>>415 August |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 445>>430 August |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 360>>325 August |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 390/395 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 355/360 |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 355/360 |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 365/370 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 365>>355 August |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 385>>370 August |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 315>>300 August |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 355>>325 August |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 382>>377 August |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 320/345 |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 295>>290 August |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | No prices |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 285/290 |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 400>>375 July |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 535>>520 August |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 570>>555 August |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 545/550 |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 500>>480 August |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 535/540 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 490>>480 August |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 680>>650 August |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 665>>645 August |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 675>>655 September |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 840>>830 m/t July |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 350>>340 m/t July |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 380>>370 m/t July |
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USA DDGS prices are reported to be steady to higher this week and, according to the US Grains Council, the Midwest domestic DDGS prices are at record levels – he highest seen since 2016. Demand from export buyers seems to have slackened off – probably due to the price levels. For all corn byproducts buyers are looking out in July and August for new purchases.
The drop in soybean/soymeal prices this week should have some affect on corn gluten meal and DDGS prices – as they tend to be protein based – but no weakness has been seen as yet. Also, the drop in export demand could lead to price weakness as supplies build for things like DDGS. Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be any real weakness in corn gluten meal prices as domestic US demand is able to keep total demand levels up even as exports shrink.
Prices look to be in a plus/minus USD 10 to 20 level trading range for now.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in the south of Peru is low again this week due to fishing bans and a greatly reduced number of vessels fishing. Only just over 3,000 m/t of fish were landed this week --- but then there were only about 20 vessels out fishing. The available quota amount stands at 342,200 m/t.
The closer we get to the quota announcement for the North/Central Peru area, the more everyone seems to have decided that the quota will be 2.5 million m/t. The trade expects the quota announcement on Monday, May 02.
The market in Peru is very quiet with China out of the market for now. Only European buyer are active but quantities are small and prices are low, so producers don't seem to be too interested in booking new Europe business.
The Chinese currency has dropped by about 3% against the US$ this week which will push up prices in China will probably keep buyers out of the fishmeal market – at least the Chinese market. About 188,000 m/t of fishmeal is said to be in China port stocks – this is about 13% higher than the five-year average.
Final March export number for fishmeal show total January/March exports at 366,500 m/t with 311,000 m/t going to China, 26,000 m/t to Ecuador and 11,000 m/t to Japan and smaller amounts to 10 other countries.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,040 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,640 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,745 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,795 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,030 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein standard steam | 1620/1640 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1670/1690 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1720/1740 m/t | 1690/1710 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1770/1790 m/t | 1740/1760 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1820/1840 m/t | 1780/1800 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 3200/3250 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 3300/3350 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 3400/3450 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 3200/3300 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
