Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT February 22, 2014
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Corporate Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
SECTION 1: FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Even with futures being down a little on Friday for wheat and corn, it was a higher week overall for all grains and oilseeds. Corn prices were up marginally by about USD 3 m/t on the week – hardly enough to get excited about. Much of the increase in corn seemed to be as a result of lowered planting estimates in the USA and the possibility of a smaller crop in late 2014. However, by the end of the week most traders had analyzed the USDA numbers and seen that the US ending stocks of corn were going to be the highest in several years which pushed the Friday prices down.
The weather in Brazil could cause a few problems for port loading and delay any field work that farmers need to do. For Argentina there is quite a bit of rain in the forecast, at least for the next week.
It is also reported in the USA that farmers seem to be selling a little more of their corn stocks which could weaken prices a little more but and for now there does seem to be a little weakness creeping into corn prices.
We will have to see how the Ukraine situation works out, as if it doesn't this should add export demand for US corn and there is still good corn demand in the EU, mainly Spain, that could be filled with US corn if the Ukraine is delayed.
It is also seen in the US that more of the major exporters are getting very picky on the corn that they will accept as many will not accept corn with GMO traits that are unapproved in China. Not too surprising as China is a very major corn importer (and DDGS)
Soybeans and soymeal had another strong week as more China cancellations or switches did not appear and demand for US beans stayed very strong. While export sales and shipments did not set any records the bulls in the market are well aware that one week does not make a market trend and with both beans and meal trending up the bulls are following along.
The USDA is looking at good soybean yields for the past 2013/14 crop but even better yields for 2014/15 crop – up about 4% over last crop. Total soybean production is expected to be up by about 7% and ending stocks are going to be higher too. However, as bearish as they may sound the forecasts are for the future and for today we are seeing higher prices as good old supply and demand works things out -- with higher prices seeming to be the winner.
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 | $22.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $34/36.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT | $37/38.00 | Down 1.00 |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $35/37.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000 | $35/37.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $36/38.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $50/52.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US PNW Asia: 45,000 m/t | $29/32.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t | $26/28.00 | Down $2.00 |
| France to Algeria: 30,000 m/t | $25.00 | Steady |
| France to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $26.00 | New |
| France to Egypt: 30,000 m/t | $28.00 | Steady |
| France to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady |
| France to Saudi Arabia: 60,000 m/t | $40.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 | $36/38.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 | $37/38.00 | Down $3.00 |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $45.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 | $34/35.00 | New |
| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $45.00 |
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| Black Sea to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $22/24.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t | $17/19.00 | Down $3.00 |
| Black Sea to East Med: coaster | $25/27.00 | Down $4.00 |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $29/31.00 | Steady |
| Baltic Dry Index | 1175 | Up 69 |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1701 | Up 147 |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1244 | Down 67 |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 677 | Up 6 |
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 270>>261 Mar>>May |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 310>>301 Mar>>May |
| Wheat, Black Sea 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 275/280 Mar/May |
| Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port | USD 277/279 Mar/May |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 330/340 Mar/May |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 240/250 Mar/May |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 243/245 Mar/May |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 215/221 Mar/Apr |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 240/245 Feb/Apr |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 260/265 |
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 224>>216 Mar>>May |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 241>>236 Mar>>May |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 220>>208 March>>May |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 196/200 July/Aug new crop |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 224/229 Mar/May |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 245/254 Mar/May |
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| Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free | USD 243/245 Mar/May |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free | USD 190/195 Mar/May |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 539>>521 Apr>>May |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 625>>554 Mar>>May |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 613>>535 Mar>>May |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 512>>497 May>>Jun |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 600>>514 Mar>>May |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 508>>476 Mar>>May |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 565/575 |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 562>>530 Mar>>May |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 498/504 May/Jun |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 537/540 March |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD 566>>553 Mar>>May |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 515/525 Mar/May |
Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 850/860 m/t March |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 220/225 m/t March |
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| DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 325>>310 m/t Mar>>May |
| DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asia | USD 370>>363 m/t Mar>>May |
There is still a very wide spread between Feb/March prices and May/June, especially for DDGS. While ethanol production is still chugging along, the winter storms in the USA have made export logistics much more difficult and pushed the Feb/Mar prices up considerably. With DDGS there is close to a USD 20 m/t premium for nearby shipment, if you can find any supply at all. Corn Gluten Meal has exactly the same problem with nearby shortages pushing prices up very high. Of course, just because you see these high prices for nearby shipment doesn't actually mean that anyone is paying these price levels. With some items it is more a case of – if you could find some you would probably have to pay about these prices – but who says you can find any.
CGM export demand is strong at present somewhat as a result of a lack of alternate protein items. There is almost no fishmeal available anywhere, animal protein prices are moving and CGM is a decent high protein alternative to both fishmeal and meat and bone meal/poultry meal.
Corn gluten feed prices are steady but nothing too exciting to report for CGF.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 450/460 m/t CNF Asia |
| Europe MBM, 50 protein Europe Poultry meal, 65 protein Europe Feathermeal, 80 protein | USD no prices USD no prices USD no prices |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 590/610 m/t CNF Asia USD 640/650 m/t CNF Asia USD 830/850 m/t CNF Asia USD 990/10100 m/t CNF Asia |
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| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 630/650 m/t CNF Asia USD 840/860 m/t CNF Asia USD 700/7200 m/t CNF Asia USD 970/990 m/t CNF Asia |
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 510/530 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 680/700 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 560/580 m/t |
Export prices for animal proteins were all higher this week as good demand in Asia is pushing prices up. Even South American prices are higher after several weeks of little business and dropping prices. There is nothing like a jump in demand to get the market excited. It looks like there is a chance for feathermeal prices to slip lower in coming weeks as the recent rally seems to be losing some steam.
There was a story out of Egypt this week that the government is once again issuing import licenses for poultry meal. One hopes that this is true as it has been quite a while since there has been much, or any, animal protein going to Egypt. It is not all that many years ago that Egypt was a large importer of all animal proteins – until pork was found in the beef MBM.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
Not much business in Peru these days but then there is little or nothing left to sell. Some local traders feel that total unsold stocks may be in the 40,000 m/t range while others are estimating much lower. Needless to say, when we get to the start of the next fishing season there will be next to nothing left on hand.
There has been no general change in market prices but, as noted before, this is due to there being so little left to sell and few actual trades being done. There are reports of some small trades being done at prices about USD 30 to 40 above those shown below but it is difficult to know what a good market price will be today.
The Peruvian government reports that they have started the next biomass research cruise to look at the situation from South to North in order that they can best determine the new fishing quota. Thinking of the new quota, everyone is hoping that it will be at least 2 million m/t of catch and perhaps even a tad higher but we still have weeks to think about it before we get any announcement. The next fishing season should start in about mid-May – 10 to 12 weeks from now.
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
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| 65 protein | 1380/1390 m/t |
| 65/66 protein | 1410/1420 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 1440/1450 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1460/1470 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1480/1490 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1500/1510 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1520/1530 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1850/1900 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2050/2100 |
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2000/2050 |
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2400/2500 |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
Wayne Bacon
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2014 Wayne S. Bacon
