Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT November 30, 2013
France: Rep. Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Corporate Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
SECTION 1: FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
It was a very short week in the USA with the Thanksgiving holiday and many companies closing for both Thursday and Friday. For many the week was over on Wednesday.
Corn prices were down a little on the week, pushed lower by corn rejections in China and the expectation of higher corn ending stocks levels. Corn export sales were good and are keeping up with expectations. Ethanol production from corn was down a little but also ethanol sticks were down so could see some production increase.
Market experts don't see much potential for corn prices to move higher in the short term and if the China situation worsens there could be a good chance of lower prices for corn.
Soybeans and soymeal were up on the week with a great deal of strength in the end of the old crop positions as demand is very good for immediate shipment but supply is tight. It is interesting to note that if export sales of soybeans continue at the current rate then the US will have sold one year's expected business in less than four months – that certainly explains why there is upward pressure on soybean and soymeal prices. Of course, much of the export sales depend on what China does in coming weeks.
Looking at the soybean prices today and the export demand it is tough to see a good reason for prices to suddenly move lower. Perhaps once we get a better idea of what is happening with the new crops in Argentina and Brazil or until we can see exactly how many soybeans China will actually buy.
USA crop harvest progress - percentage harvested – per USDA
| 2013 % | 2012% | Average% |
Corn | 95.0 | 100.0 | 91.0 |
Soybeans | 95.0 | 98.0 | 96.0 |
Sorghum | 97.0 | 97.0 | 91.0 |
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Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
The Baltic Dry Index took quite a jump at the end of the week as quite a lot of US Gulf grain demand hit the market. Because the jump was late in the week there has been little or no change in the freight estimates from the previous week. If the BDI increases hold or continue higher then there should be freight increases reported next week.
US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 | $23.50 |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $36/40.00 |
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT | $39/41.00 |
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $36.00 |
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000 | $40/41.00 |
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $37.00 |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $56.00 |
US PNW Asia: 45,000 m/t | $33.00 |
US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t | $28.00 |
France to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $25.00 |
France to Saudi Arabia: 60,000 m/t | $30.00 |
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 | $33.00 |
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t | $35.00 |
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 | $33.00 |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $48.00 |
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $30.00 |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $26.00 |
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $24.00 |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $40.00 |
Black Sea to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 |
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t | $22/24.00 |
Black Sea to East Med: coaster | $35/38.00 |
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tones:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 287>>279 Dec/Feb |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 315>>311 Dec/Feb |
Wheat, Black Sea 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 282/288 |
Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port | USD 289/291 |
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 350>>320 Dec>>Feb |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 275/279 |
Wheat bran, Black Sea | USD 190/200 |
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Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 255/257 |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 219>>210 Jan/Feb new crop |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 242/247 |
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 255/260 |
Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 206>>198 Dec>>Feb |
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 227>>219 Dec>>Feb |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 202/207 Dec/Jan |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 190/195 Dec/Jan |
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 198/204 Spot>>Feb |
Corn, FOB France | USD 246/253 Dec/Jan |
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Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free | USD 221/226 Dec/Jan/Feb |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free | USD 200/208 Dec/Jan/Feb |
Sorghum, FOB Black Sea - Ukraine | USD 210/213 Dec/Jan |
Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 552>>544 Nov>>Feb 2014 |
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 591>>566 Spot>>Feb 2014 |
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 590>>565 Spot>>Feb 2014 |
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 533/536 Dec/Jan |
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 590>>552 Spot>>Feb 2014 |
Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 523/527 Dec/Jan |
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 560/575 |
Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 815/820 m/t |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 220/225 m/t |
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DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 300>>288 m/t Dec>>Feb |
DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asia | USD 345>>339 m/t Dec>>Feb |
USA prices for corn by-products were flat this week with no major changes of exciting events – just too many people off for two days for the Thanksgiving holidays.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD sorry no updated prices this week |
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD " " |
Europe MBM 50 protein | USD " " |
Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade | USD 480/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 640/650 m/t CNF Asia USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia |
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 540/560 m/t CNF Asia USD 650/660 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 830/850 m/t CNF Asia |
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 450/470 m/t |
Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 570/590 m/t |
Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 510/530 m/t |
With most companies closed for two days this week there is no new information animal proteins available from the USA and, as much of the Asia information comes via the USA, this information too is not available this week
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in Peru is coming along quite well with just over 900,000 m/t of catch so far with the daily average over the past few days nicely up over 50,000 m/t.
New export business was quite hard to find this week but many were saying that this was due to the effect of much of the USA being closed for two days at the end of the week and many traders and buyers staying out of the market and catching up on all the things they meant to do weeks ago.
Traders in Peru are saying that the first of the new stock of fishmeal should start to load next week, so we will see how quickly the export shipments build and, of course, how long the shippers will be able to find a decent supply of containers.
According to numbers from Peru, stocks of fishmeal are building and the sales booked are now down to about 125,000 m/t over production to date. It is not going to take too long for the fishmeal stocks to build and surpass the orders on hand but then the stock on hand will have to last until about May of 2014 when we see new stock from the next fishing season. Looking at fishing and stocks and demand, the fishmeal situation looks reasonably balanced at present and there doesn't seem to be any reason to expect a major change in prices – in any direction.
One major change in Peru is that the Supreme Court has ruled that fishing restrictions related off-shore corridors were unconstitutional. So for now the industrial fleet will also be allowed to fish the 5 to 10 mile corridor rather than only +10 miles. This change will probably improve fishing and insure that the quota gets filled.
On perhaps a lighter note, a UAE company says that they will begin salmon farming in the desert in the region to supply local demand. According to the company, they will be setting up "chilled onshore pools" in which to raise the salmon. They say that within two years they will be producing commercially viable salmon at a very competitive price. Imagine, cooled salmon pools in the desert – good luck to them.
A small note on Norway, fishing is up 36% so far in 2013 with total landings for production at just over 300,000 m/t.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
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65 protein | 1330/1350 m/t |
65/66 protein | 1380/1390 m/t |
67 protein standard steam | 1400/1410 m/t |
67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1420/1430 m/t |
67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1440/1450 m/t |
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1460/1470 m/t |
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1480/1490 m/t |
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Fish oil .. crude bulk | 1750/1800 |
Fish oil – crude drums | 1950/2000 |
Fish oil – flexi tank | 1900/1950 |
Fish oil – Omega 3 – 28%EPA/DHA | 2350/2400 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
Wayne Bacon
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2013 Wayne S. Bacon