Saturday, November 30, 2013

Weekly report -- Nov 30, 2013

 

 

Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   November 30, 2013

                                                                       

 

France:  Rep. Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

Corporate Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com       SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

 

 

SECTION 1:  FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

It was a very short week in the USA with the Thanksgiving holiday and many companies closing for both Thursday and Friday. For many the week was over on Wednesday.

 

Corn prices were down a little on the week, pushed lower by corn rejections in China and the expectation of higher corn ending stocks levels. Corn export sales were good and are keeping up with expectations. Ethanol production from corn was down a little but also ethanol sticks were down so could see some production increase.

 

Market experts don't see much potential for corn prices to move higher in the short term and if the China situation worsens there could be a good chance of lower prices for corn.

 

Soybeans and soymeal were up on the week with a great deal of strength in the end of the old crop positions as demand is very good for immediate shipment but supply is tight. It is interesting to note that if export sales of soybeans continue at the current rate then the US will have sold one year's expected business in less than four months – that certainly explains why there is upward pressure on soybean and soymeal prices.  Of course, much of the export sales depend on what China does in coming weeks.

 

Looking at the soybean prices today and the export demand it is tough to see a good reason for prices to suddenly move lower. Perhaps once we get a better idea of what is happening with the new crops in Argentina and Brazil or until we can see exactly how many soybeans China will actually buy.

 

USA crop harvest progress - percentage harvested – per USDA

 

 

2013 %

2012% 

Average%

Corn

95.0

100.0

91.0

Soybeans

95.0

98.0

96.0

Sorghum

97.0

97.0

91.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

The Baltic Dry Index took quite a jump at the end of the week as quite a lot of US Gulf grain demand hit the market. Because the jump was late in the week there has been little or no change in the freight estimates from the previous week. If the BDI increases hold or continue higher then there should be freight increases reported next week.  

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000

$23.50

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$36/40.00

US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT

$39/41.00

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT

$36.00

US Gulf Morocco: 25,000

$40/41.00

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000

$37.00

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$56.00

US PNW Asia: 45,000 m/t

$33.00

US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t

$28.00

France to Algeria: 25,000 m/t

$25.00

France to Saudi Arabia: 60,000 m/t

$30.00

Argentina to Egypt: 50,000

$33.00

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t

$35.00

Argentina to Morocco: 25,000

$33.00

Argentina to Saudi Arabia

$48.00

Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t

$30.00

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$26.00

Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t

$24.00

Brazil to Saudi Arabia

$40.00

Black Sea to Spain: 30,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t

$22/24.00

Black Sea to East Med: coaster

$35/38.00

 

  

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tones:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA

USD 287>>279 Dec/Feb  

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein

USD 315>>311 Dec/Feb  

   Wheat, Black Sea 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 282/288

   Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port

USD 289/291

   Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver

USD 350>>320 Dec>>Feb 

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 275/279

   Wheat bran, Black Sea

USD 190/200

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 255/257

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

USD 219>>210 Jan/Feb new crop

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

USD 242/247

   Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest

USD 255/260

 

   Corn, FOB NOLA USA

USD 206>>198 Dec>>Feb

   Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest

USD 227>>219 Dec>>Feb

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD 202/207 Dec/Jan

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD 190/195 Dec/Jan

   Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t

USD 198/204 Spot>>Feb  

   Corn, FOB France

USD 246/253 Dec/Jan

 

 

   Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free

USD  221/226 Dec/Jan/Feb   

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free

USD  200/208 Dec/Jan/Feb

   Sorghum, FOB Black Sea - Ukraine

USD  210/213 Dec/Jan

 

   Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA

USD 552>>544 Nov>>Feb 2014

   Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD 591>>566 Spot>>Feb 2014

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

USD 590>>565 Spot>>Feb 2014  

   Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina

USD 533/536 Dec/Jan  

   Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

USD 590>>552 Spot>>Feb 2014

   Soymeal, FOB Brazil

USD 523/527 Dec/Jan   

   Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB

USD 560/575

 

 

Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

USD   815/820 m/t 

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

USD   220/225 m/t  

 

 

   DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD   300>>288 m/t Dec>>Feb  

   DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asia

USD   345>>339 m/t Dec>>Feb

 

USA prices for corn by-products were flat this week with no major changes of exciting events – just too many people off for two days for the Thanksgiving holidays.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein

USD  sorry no updated prices this week

   Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein

USD        "       "

   Europe MBM 50 protein

USD        "       "

   Australian MBM 45 protein

   Australian MBM 50 protein

   Australian Feathermeal

   Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade

USD 480/510 m/t CNF Asia

USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia

USD 640/650 m/t CNF Asia

USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein

   USA Feathermeal, 80 protein

   USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

USD 540/560 m/t CNF Asia

USD 650/660 m/t CNF Asia

USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia

USD 830/850 m/t CNF Asia

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

   Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein

USD 450/470 m/t   

   Feathermeal  80 protein USA

USD 570/590 m/t         

   Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA

USD 510/530 m/t  

 

With most companies closed for two days this week there is no new information animal proteins available from the USA and, as much of the Asia information comes via the USA, this information too is not available this week

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

 

Fishing in Peru is coming along quite well with just over 900,000 m/t of catch so far with the daily average over the past few days nicely up over 50,000 m/t.

 

New export business was quite hard to find this week but many were saying that this was due to the effect of much of the USA being closed for two days at the end of the week and many traders and buyers staying out of the market and catching up on all the things they meant to do weeks ago.   

 

Traders in Peru are saying that the first of the new stock of fishmeal should start to load next week, so we will see how quickly the export shipments build and, of course, how long the shippers will be able to find a decent supply of containers.

 

According to numbers from Peru, stocks of fishmeal are building and the sales booked are now down to about 125,000 m/t over production to date. It is not going to take too long for the fishmeal stocks to build and surpass the orders on hand but then the stock on hand will have to last until about May of 2014 when we see new stock from the next fishing season. Looking at fishing and stocks and demand, the fishmeal situation looks reasonably balanced at present and there doesn't seem to be any reason to expect a major change in prices – in any direction.

 

One major change in Peru is that the Supreme Court has ruled that fishing restrictions related off-shore corridors were unconstitutional. So for now the industrial fleet will also be allowed to fish the 5 to 10 mile corridor rather than only +10 miles. This change will probably improve fishing and insure that the quota gets filled.

 

On perhaps a lighter note, a UAE company says that they will begin salmon farming in the desert in the region to supply local demand. According to the company, they will be setting up "chilled onshore pools" in which to raise the salmon. They say that within two years they will be producing commercially viable salmon at a very competitive price. Imagine, cooled salmon pools in the desert – good luck to them.

 

A small note on Norway, fishing is up 36% so far in 2013 with total landings for production at just over 300,000 m/t.       

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

 ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

 

 

   65 protein 

1330/1350 m/t

   65/66 protein

1380/1390 m/t

   67 protein standard steam

1400/1410 m/t

   67 protein SD 150  TVN

1420/1430 m/t

   67 protein SD 120 TVN

1440/1450 m/t

   67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1460/1470 m/t

   68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN

1480/1490 m/t

 

 

   Fish oil .. crude bulk

1750/1800

   Fish oil – crude drums

1950/2000

   Fish oil – flexi tank

1900/1950

   Fish oil – Omega 3 – 28%EPA/DHA

2350/2400

 

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

Wayne Bacon

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete.  Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy.  All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2013 Wayne S. Bacon