Saturday, March 30, 2019

Weekly Report March 30, 2018

 
HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564   

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT March 30, 2019

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

It was quite a down week for all US grain and oilseed prices. Soybeans were down the least at about USD 2 m/t lower while soymeal changed little or nothing on the week- corn prices did drop by about USD 6 m/t with winter wheat lower by USD 3 to 6 m/t.

 

US corn prices moved lower due to the higher level of US corn stocks ---looks like we may have a lot more corn that had been anticipated by the trade -- due mainly to lower US export sales or perhaps to a crop that was higher than USDA estimates.

 

Soybean prices slipped a little on the week kind of in sympathy with corn as traders were looking to sell everything in light of bearish corn and soybeans just got caught in the tailwind. There probably no good reason for soybeans to be lower this week but they are. 

 

The wheat situation was the same as for corn – higher stocks and lower exports.

 

Looks like everything is in s bit of s trend to lower prices – at least for this week.

 

 

Top 15 US Export Destinations for Grains and Oilseeds –

1 month – January 2019 – in m/t

 

Country

 

Wheat

Corn

Sorghum

Soybeans

Argentina

 

 

 

163,700

Bangladesh

 

 

 

114,700

Canada

 

232,300

 

79,500

China

 

 

 

1,366,700

Colombia

19,300

498,600

 

58,400

Costa Rica

 

86,600

 

 

Djibouti

 

 

10,000

 

Dominican Rep

 

25,100

 

 

El Salvador

 

54,500

 

280,300

Guatemala

32,900

82,900

 

 

Honduras

23,300

57,800

 

 

Indonesia

 

 

 

309.100

Iraq

105,000

 

 

 

Italy

 

 

 

234,200

Japan

274,800

1,388,500

23,900

194,100

Malaysia

 

 

 

49.800

Mexico

349,400

1,370,800

28,400

380,200

Netherlands

 

 

 

213,000

Nigeria

161,200

 

 

 

Panama

 

8,000

 

133,700

Peru

 

344,400

 

 

Philippines

262,800

 

 

 

Saudi Arabia

 

71,800

 

 

South Korea

98,100

134,800

 

123,400

Spain

 

 

54,100

37,700

Sudan

 

 

 

 

Taiwan

50,900

67,900

 

255,100

Thailand

 

 

 

144,000

Vietnam

 

 

 

43,600

 

 

 

 

 

@USDA GATS March 2019

 

 

  

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t

$28/29.00

Down $2.00

X

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Down $1.00

x

US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$35/36.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch)

$34/35.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$44/45.00

Steady

X

US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)

$35/36.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t

$35/36.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$41/42.00

Steady

x

US Gulf China: Panamax

$40/41.00

Steady

X

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$37/38.00

Steady

X

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$24/25.00

Up $1.00

X

US PNW China: Panamax

$23/24.00

Up $1.00

X

US East Coast Egypt: Panamax

$43/44.00

Steady

X

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$48/49.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t

$37/38.00

Up $1.00

X

France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Up $1.00

X

France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t

$20/21.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch)

$20/21.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch)

$13/14.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000

$26/27.00

Up $1.00

X

France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t

$18/19.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t

$14/15.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t

$30/31.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$29/30.00

Up $2.00

x

Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$28/29.00

Down $2.00

X

Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$29/30.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$33/34.00

Up $2.00

X

Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t

$35/36.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$25/26.00

Up $2.00

X

Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t

$33/34.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Down $2.00

X

Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t

$35/36.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$29/30.00

Up $2.00

X

Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t

$20/21.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t

$27/28.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Up $2.00

X

Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t

$31/32.00

Up $2.00

X

Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Up $2.00

x

Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$37/38.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Up $2.00

X

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$31/32.00

Up $2.00

X

 

 

 

 

Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$18.00/18.50

Steady

X

Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$19.00/19.50

Steady

X

Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Ukraine to China:  50,000 m/t

$36/37.00

Up $3.00

X

Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t

$34/35.00

Up $1.00

X

Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t

$30/31.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Steady

X

Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)

$28/29.00

Steady

X

Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) -

$22/23.00

Up $2.00

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich)

$15/16.00

Steady

X

Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$28/29.00

Steady

X

Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$35/36.00

Up $2.00

X

Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$35/36.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t

$20/21.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$20/21.00

Up $2.00

X

Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)

$20/21.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$25/26.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t

$21/22.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k

$28/29.00

Up $2.00

X

Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t

$38/39.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t

$14/15.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$17/18.00

Steady

x

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included)

689

Down 1

X

Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT)

150

Down 101

X

Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT)

1102

Up 75

X

Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT)

813

Down 13

X

Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT)

464

Up 9

X

 

 

 

 


 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR April/June 2019

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA

 USD 209>>203

X

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA

 USD 217>>214

X

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 220/222

X

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 226/229

X

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

 USD 223/226

X

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

 USD 214/216

X

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 187/190

X

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 213/215

X

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 196/198

X

   Barley, feed, Argentina, up river

 USD 181/183

X

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 198/200

X

 

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

 USD 168>>170

X

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 181/184

X

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

 USD 155/158

X

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 155/158

x

   Corn, FOB France - Atlantic

 USD 193/195

X

   Corn, FOB Romania

 USD 171/174

X

   Corn, FOB Russia

 USD 180/183  

X

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 172/175

X

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD 168/171

X

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

 USD 176/179

X

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 343/345

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 368/370

x

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

 USD 343/346

X

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 312/315

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

 USD 337/340

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 312/315

X

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 342/345

X

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 327/329

X

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 334/337  

X

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 USD no prices

X

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 535>>525 m/t  

X

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 165>>158 m/t

X

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 217>>213

x

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Once again, as we have seen many times over recent weeks, logistics problems that have been pushing US DDGS prices higher seeming to be calming down a little. At least the spot premium has dropped from USD 20 m/t to less than USD 8 mt.

 

Looking at the January USDA exports numbers below it looks like Ireland is starting the 2019 buying year with a bang for both corn gluten meal and DDGS. It is interesting to see that Egypt didn't have any CGM imports in January – I assume that they will quickly catch up as CGM business to Egypt has been very good for March and April

 

US export prices are actually a little lower than shows as sellers are quite agreeable to most buyer's bids. Exports are still very good, but price have slipped a little lower.

 

 

USA exports of corn by-products – 1 month January 2019 – major destinations and selected countries – in m/t

 

Country

Distillers

Dried Grains

DDGS

January

2019

Corn

Gluten Meal

 

January

2019

Corn

Gluten Feed

 

January

2019

Australia

 

300

 

Bangladesh

6,800

400

 

Canada

48,300

5,000

 

Chile

 

 

 

China

1,900

13,300

 

Colombia

5,700

7,100

 

Ecuador

 

200

 

Indonesia

90,300

13,700

 

Ireland

49,100

 

45,900

Japan

34,900

900

 

Malaysia

 

3,500

 

Mexico

 

2,100

1,300

Morocco

199,300

 

 

New Zealand

22,000

 

3,000

Peru

 

600

 

Philippines

17,800

 

 

South Korea

89,400

 

 

Taiwan

19,700

3,400

 

Thailand

35,000

2.300

 

UK

52,300

 

7,200

Vietnam

89,400

700

 

 

 

 

 

@USDA GATS March 2019

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Australian MBM 45% protein

   Australian MBM 50% protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

 USD 350/360 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 390/400 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 720/730 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein

  

   USA Feathermeal, 80% protein

   USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

 USD 415/425 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 400/410 to Indonesia

 USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 525/545 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia

 

Meat and bone meal prices in Indonesia are reported to have moved lower this week as the effect of African Swine Fever (ASF) is hitting the market – sellers are trying to move some product by cutting prices. It is said that Australian domestic MBM prices are down by about AUS$ 235 m/t. New Zealand prices are also reported to be lower as the market is shaken by the drop in business due to ASF outbreaks.

 

USA domestic and export MBM prices are expected to move lower as production in the US is very good but export sales are falling off in main Asian markets. Also in the US feathermeal prices dropped on the week as supply was building ahead of any new business.

 

Until the ASF situation is solved we will probably not see any major buying interest in Asia.

 

 

 

USA exports of animal protein – 1 month – January 2019 – major destinations – in m/t

 

Destination

Meat and bone meal – includes poultry and pork

 

January

2019

Feather meal

 

 

 

 

January

2019

Burma

500

 

Cambodia

500

 

Canada

4,500

100

Chile

200

2,900

China

11,100

1,100

Colombia

 

 

Ecuador

1,300

 

Germany

 

 

Honduras

600

200

Indonesia

22,000

1,800

Jamaica

 

 

Malaysia

1,700

 

Mexico

17,800

 

Peru

200

 

Philippines

1,700

 

Sri Lanka

400

 

Thailand

2,100

 

Vietnam

6,600

100

 

 

 

Total exports

 

 

@USDA GATS March 2019

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

 

The IMARPE research cruise should finish this weekend so I guess we will hear something on the new quota very soon.

 

The market reports that about 80,000 m/t of futures fishmeal business has been done with prices at about USD 60 m/t higher than recent price lists.

 

Not much more to tell you this week --- we just have to sit quietly and wait for the new fishing quota.

 

We did have the JCI/IFFO fishmeal conference in China last week but there didn't seem to be too much exciting from the conference expect that people are expecting to pay higher fishmeal price this coming season.

 

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Herring fishmeal

72% protein

1,820

Danish fishmeal

64% protein

1,500

Peru fishmeal

64% protein

1,470

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,525

Iceland fishmeal

70% protein

1,820

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65/66 protein

1200/1210 m/t

 

   67% protein standard steam

1260/1270 m/t

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1370/1380 m/t

No prices

   67% protein 120 TVN

1410/1440 m/t

1430/1440

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1470/1480 m/t

1470/1480

   68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN

1520/1530 m/t

1500/1510

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

1700/1750

 

   Fish oil, crude drums

1750/1800

 

   Fish oil, flexi tank

1850/1900

 

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

2200/2400

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2019 Wayne S. Bacon