------------------------
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WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT March 30, 2019
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
It was quite a down week for all US grain and oilseed prices. Soybeans were down the least at about USD 2 m/t lower while soymeal changed little or nothing on the week- corn prices did drop by about USD 6 m/t with winter wheat lower by USD 3 to 6 m/t.
US corn prices moved lower due to the higher level of US corn stocks ---looks like we may have a lot more corn that had been anticipated by the trade -- due mainly to lower US export sales or perhaps to a crop that was higher than USDA estimates.
Soybean prices slipped a little on the week kind of in sympathy with corn as traders were looking to sell everything in light of bearish corn and soybeans just got caught in the tailwind. There probably no good reason for soybeans to be lower this week but they are.
The wheat situation was the same as for corn – higher stocks and lower exports.
Looks like everything is in s bit of s trend to lower prices – at least for this week.
Top 15 US Export Destinations for Grains and Oilseeds –
1 month – January 2019 – in m/t
Country
| Wheat | Corn | Sorghum | Soybeans |
Argentina |
|
|
| 163,700 |
Bangladesh |
|
|
| 114,700 |
Canada |
| 232,300 |
| 79,500 |
China |
|
|
| 1,366,700 |
Colombia | 19,300 | 498,600 |
| 58,400 |
Costa Rica |
| 86,600 |
|
|
Djibouti |
|
| 10,000 |
|
Dominican Rep |
| 25,100 |
|
|
El Salvador |
| 54,500 |
| 280,300 |
Guatemala | 32,900 | 82,900 |
|
|
Honduras | 23,300 | 57,800 |
|
|
Indonesia |
|
|
| 309.100 |
Iraq | 105,000 |
|
|
|
Italy |
|
|
| 234,200 |
Japan | 274,800 | 1,388,500 | 23,900 | 194,100 |
Malaysia |
|
|
| 49.800 |
Mexico | 349,400 | 1,370,800 | 28,400 | 380,200 |
Netherlands |
|
|
| 213,000 |
Nigeria | 161,200 |
|
|
|
Panama |
| 8,000 |
| 133,700 |
Peru |
| 344,400 |
|
|
Philippines | 262,800 |
|
|
|
Saudi Arabia |
| 71,800 |
|
|
South Korea | 98,100 | 134,800 |
| 123,400 |
Spain |
|
| 54,100 | 37,700 |
Sudan |
|
|
|
|
Taiwan | 50,900 | 67,900 |
| 255,100 |
Thailand |
|
|
| 144,000 |
Vietnam |
|
|
| 43,600 |
|
|
|
|
|
@USDA GATS March 2019
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | x |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
US PNW China: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $28/29.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $18.00/18.50 | Steady | X |
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.00/19.50 | Steady | X |
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $22/23.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $28/29.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $14/15.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
|
|
|
|
Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 689 | Down 1 | X |
Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 150 | Down 101 | X |
Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1102 | Up 75 | X |
Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 813 | Down 13 | X |
Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 464 | Up 9 | X |
|
|
|
|
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR April/June 2019
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 209>>203 | X |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA | USD 217>>214 | X |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 220/222 | X |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 226/229 | X |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 223/226 | X |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 214/216 | X |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 187/190 | X |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 213/215 | X |
|
|
|
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 196/198 | X |
Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 181/183 | X |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 198/200 | X |
|
|
|
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 168>>170 | X |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 181/184 | X |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 155/158 | X |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 155/158 | x |
Corn, FOB France - Atlantic | USD 193/195 | X |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 171/174 | X |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 180/183 | X |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 172/175 | X |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 168/171 | X |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 176/179 | X |
|
|
|
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 343/345 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 368/370 | x |
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 343/346 | X |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 312/315 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 337/340 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 312/315 | X |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 342/345 | X |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 327/329 | X |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 334/337 | X |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD no prices | X |
|
|
|
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 535>>525 m/t | X |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 165>>158 m/t | X |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 217>>213 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Once again, as we have seen many times over recent weeks, logistics problems that have been pushing US DDGS prices higher seeming to be calming down a little. At least the spot premium has dropped from USD 20 m/t to less than USD 8 mt.
Looking at the January USDA exports numbers below it looks like Ireland is starting the 2019 buying year with a bang for both corn gluten meal and DDGS. It is interesting to see that Egypt didn't have any CGM imports in January – I assume that they will quickly catch up as CGM business to Egypt has been very good for March and April
US export prices are actually a little lower than shows as sellers are quite agreeable to most buyer's bids. Exports are still very good, but price have slipped a little lower.
USA exports of corn by-products – 1 month January 2019 – major destinations and selected countries – in m/t
Country | Distillers Dried Grains DDGS January 2019 | Corn Gluten Meal
January 2019 | Corn Gluten Feed
January 2019 |
Australia |
| 300 |
|
Bangladesh | 6,800 | 400 |
|
Canada | 48,300 | 5,000 |
|
Chile |
|
|
|
China | 1,900 | 13,300 |
|
Colombia | 5,700 | 7,100 |
|
Ecuador |
| 200 |
|
Indonesia | 90,300 | 13,700 |
|
Ireland | 49,100 |
| 45,900 |
Japan | 34,900 | 900 |
|
Malaysia |
| 3,500 |
|
Mexico |
| 2,100 | 1,300 |
Morocco | 199,300 |
|
|
New Zealand | 22,000 |
| 3,000 |
Peru |
| 600 |
|
Philippines | 17,800 |
|
|
South Korea | 89,400 |
|
|
Taiwan | 19,700 | 3,400 |
|
Thailand | 35,000 | 2.300 |
|
UK | 52,300 |
| 7,200 |
Vietnam | 89,400 | 700 |
|
|
|
|
|
@USDA GATS March 2019
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 350/360 m/t CNF Asia USD 390/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 720/730 m/t CNF Asia |
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 415/425 m/t CNF Asia USD 400/410 to Indonesia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 525/545 m/t CNF Asia USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal prices in Indonesia are reported to have moved lower this week as the effect of African Swine Fever (ASF) is hitting the market – sellers are trying to move some product by cutting prices. It is said that Australian domestic MBM prices are down by about AUS$ 235 m/t. New Zealand prices are also reported to be lower as the market is shaken by the drop in business due to ASF outbreaks.
USA domestic and export MBM prices are expected to move lower as production in the US is very good but export sales are falling off in main Asian markets. Also in the US feathermeal prices dropped on the week as supply was building ahead of any new business.
Until the ASF situation is solved we will probably not see any major buying interest in Asia.
USA exports of animal protein – 1 month – January 2019 – major destinations – in m/t
Destination | Meat and bone meal – includes poultry and pork
January 2019 | Feather meal
January 2019 |
Burma | 500 |
|
Cambodia | 500 |
|
Canada | 4,500 | 100 |
Chile | 200 | 2,900 |
China | 11,100 | 1,100 |
Colombia |
|
|
Ecuador | 1,300 |
|
Germany |
|
|
Honduras | 600 | 200 |
Indonesia | 22,000 | 1,800 |
Jamaica |
|
|
Malaysia | 1,700 |
|
Mexico | 17,800 |
|
Peru | 200 |
|
Philippines | 1,700 |
|
Sri Lanka | 400 |
|
Thailand | 2,100 |
|
Vietnam | 6,600 | 100 |
|
|
|
Total exports |
|
|
@USDA GATS March 2019
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The IMARPE research cruise should finish this weekend so I guess we will hear something on the new quota very soon.
The market reports that about 80,000 m/t of futures fishmeal business has been done with prices at about USD 60 m/t higher than recent price lists.
Not much more to tell you this week --- we just have to sit quietly and wait for the new fishing quota.
We did have the JCI/IFFO fishmeal conference in China last week but there didn't seem to be too much exciting from the conference expect that people are expecting to pay higher fishmeal price this coming season.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,820 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,500 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,470 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,525 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,820 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
65/66 protein | 1200/1210 m/t |
|
67% protein standard steam | 1260/1270 m/t |
|
67% protein 150 TVN | 1370/1380 m/t | No prices |
67% protein 120 TVN | 1410/1440 m/t | 1430/1440 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1470/1480 m/t | 1470/1480 |
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1520/1530 m/t | 1500/1510 |
|
|
|
Fish oil, crude bulk | 1700/1750 |
|
Fish oil, crude drums | 1750/1800 |
|
Fish oil, flexi tank | 1850/1900 |
|
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2200/2400 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2019 Wayne S. Bacon