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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT March 26, 2022
We ended this week again with everything moving higher – corn prices were up by almost USD 10 m/t, soybeans were up by about USD 15 m/t, soymeal was also up by close to USD 15 m/t. USA winter wheat was up by USD 17 m/t while US spring wheat was up by closer to USD 20 m/t.
Grain and oilseed prices are being moved up and down more by international events than by any actual crop fundamentals.
Reports from Chicago are that futures trading volumes are lower – perhaps the volatility in the market has scared of speculators and investors.
Next week we will see the USDA Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings Report which should add a bit more volatility to market prices.
Looking at South America --- weather for the corn crop has improved in Brazil and crop forecasts may be increased but Argentina still has large areas of drought which has caused corn crop forecasts to be lowered. Brazil looks to have about 92 million m/t of corn while Argentina may only have 49 mm/t.
Brazil's soybean crop is expected to be lower than recent USDA estimates which is helping keep prices firm. Oilseed production in the Ukraine is expected to be down by about 46%, mainly due to sunseeds, and this will help keep oilseed prices up.
March 30 to April 05, Russian export grain taxes are at: wheat USD 87.00 m/t – up USD 0.60, barley USD 75.60 m/t – down USD 4.00 m/t and corn USD 58.30 m/t – up USD 5.10 m/t.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $70/71.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $71/72.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $71/72.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $73/74.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $64/65.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $74/75.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $79/80.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $78/79.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $65/66.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Now open | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $68/69.00 | Now open | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $78/79.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $79/80.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $74/75.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $58/59.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $63/64.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $86/87.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $57/58.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $63/64.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Up $5.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Up $5.00 | X |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $68.69.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $86/87.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $72/73.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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All Black Sea freight costs are no longer available
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – (no Handisize included) | 2544 | Down 61 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 1877 | Down 728 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 3413 | Up 539 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (45,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 3020 | Up 98 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 1782 | Up 120 | X |
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| Global Container Index - @Freightos | 9430 | Down 58 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR April 2022/June 2022
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 456>>436 July | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 478>>467 July | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 407>>345 July ???? | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 412>>352 July ???? | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 425>>355 July | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 431>>388 July | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 400>>370 July | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | No prices | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 427>>410 July | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 375>>295 July | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 345/350 ???? | x |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 340/350 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 352>>340 July | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 374>>365 July | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 319>>305 July | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 362>>320 July | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 395>>365 July | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 360>>340 July | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | No prices | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 360/370 ???? | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 285/295 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 422>>410 July | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 595>>580 July | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 625>>610 July | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 610/615 Apr/May | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 560>>550 July | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 610/615 Apr/May | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 580>>555 July |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 690>>680 July | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 690/695 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 690/694 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 870>>850 m/t July | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 370>>360 m/t July | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 430>>400 m/t July | X |
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As has been the recent pattern, DDGS prices moved higher again this week helped higher by increased prices for most vegetable proteins. The US Grains Council says that DDGS to Asia is up by close to USD 30 m/t due to increased FOB prices and higher container freight.
It doesn't look like there will be any softening of corn byproduct prices before June/July.
Trade reports say that even as prices move significantly higher each week there has not been a drop in export or domestic demand. While buyers don't like the prices, they just don't have any lower cost alternatives --- everything is expensive.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in the South of Peru is now up to 108,500 m/t of catch, leaving 378,000 m/t of catch to full quota. Fishmeal production in the south is at about 24,000 m/t with fishoil at about 2,500 m/t.
Trade reports say that prices for the next season look to be moving higher quickly, much of this due to higher container freight costs. Trade estimates have container freight to China as high as USD 130 m/t.
The latest info from the IMARPE research cruise is not expected until about mid-April but rumors say that all looks good for the next season. Of course, this is all just guess work but there doesn't seem to be much reason to expect poor biomass levels and a low fishing quota.
Pre-sales of fishmeal for next season look to be steady at about 220,000 m/t with no producers looking to sell more for now.
According to fishmeal export numbers for 2022 up to the end of February, China is at 83.49% of all exports – 169,000 m/t – ad Ecuador is second at 7.76% with 15,700 m/t. Total fishmeal exports for January/February were at 202,600 m/t.
There is some concern in Peru that the increased price of feed ingredients to China due to the Ukraine war could cause reductions in feed production in China which may result in a drop in demand for fishmeal later in 2022.
For now, fishmeal prices are steady but there doesn't look to be any reason to expect lower prices in the next weeks.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,920 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,530 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,710 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,750 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,950 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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New season prices
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| 65% protein standard steam | 1600/1620 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1700/1720 m/t | 1720/1740 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1750/1770 m/t | 1770/1790 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1800/1820 m/t | 1800/1820 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 3200/3250 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 3300/3350 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 3400/3450 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 3200/3300 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
