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WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT October 28, 2017
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
It wasn't the most exciting trading week this week for grain and oilseed but there were a couple of US weather rumors that got people a little excited – but just a little.
There was quite a bit of talk about the US corn harvest falling behind but most experts seem to feel that this is not much of a problem as the farmers are working hard on the soybean harvest and leaving corn for a bit. As we all know from past years, the US farmer can catch up with the harvest levels in a very short period of time.
Grain/oilseed prices were also pushed a little lower by the stronger US dollar and then there was the International Grain Councils report out during the week and the forecast of larger corn supplies. Spain has bought some US corn – about 250,000 m/t in the past two weeks – after not buying any by this time last year.
US weather looks quite good for a few busy harvest days which may allow farmers to just about finish the soybeans and race ahead on the corn.
Overall, the experts don't seem to be forecasting lower prices for grains – we are bouncing around on the lows and once everything is harvested there is not too much reason for lower prices. US supply should probably not be any greater than what has been forecasted, based on harvest yields to date, which would tend to suggest that post-harvest prices will be higher not lower than today
Crop progress and condition --- USA and France
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $17.50/18.00 | Down $0.50 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Changed cargo size | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $21/22.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $21/22.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $39/40.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $39/40.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $40/41.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.00/20.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.50/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $15/16.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $52/53.00 | Up $5.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1546 | Down 32 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 3220 | Up 75 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1517 | Down 126 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 1100 | Up 26 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 687 | Up 8 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2017/January 2018
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 187/190 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein -NOLA | USD 232/236 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 181/186 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 188/193 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 189/194 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 191/193 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 179/184 new crop Dec | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 175/179 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 185/187 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 184/188 new crop Dec | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 195/199 | X |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 156/159 | X |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 164/168 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 146/150 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 154/157 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 159/163 | X |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 180/183 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 165/169 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 162/167 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 187/192 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 169/172 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 344/347 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 369/372 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 346/351 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 316/320 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 344/348 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 316/320 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB India | USD 350/355 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 373/378 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 370/373 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 379/382 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 382/386 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 560/565 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 138/142 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 181>>174 m/t | x |
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Starting off with the USDA average US prices this week, there is very little change. Corn gluten feed prices did not change on the week but on the domestic side corn gluten meal is up by a couple of dollars while DDGS in the US are mainly unchanged.
On the export side CGF is steady while CGM is a little lower – perhaps as shippers have cleaned up all the backlog of CGM orders – DDGS prices are steady but with the nearby at a premium due to logistics and strong nearby lineups.
With DDGS, the export buyers seem to be waiting a little for lower prices – they feel that the weakness in corn and soymeal should be pushing DDGS prices down. No one seems to be in much of a rush to cover at the current price levels. If we could get DDGS back into the 160's FOB NOLA, then we should see some good buying interest from Asia.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50% protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60% protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80% protein | USD no prices m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD no prices m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 425/435 m/t CNF Asia USD 470/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 450/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 340/360 to Indonesia USD 470/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 650/660 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/810 m/t CNF Asia |
I have included the price indication for US MBM to Indonesia this week – courtesy of the Jacobsen Report. Their report also states that MBM it Indonesia is trading in about a USD 50 m/t range with sellers from Australia getting the highest prices due to their short shipping time and quick delivery.
There seems to be a never-ending supply of low cost MBM in the Asia market – supply that some say will exceed demand into early 2018. According to Jacobsen the price ratio of MBM to soymeal is at the lowest level seen since 2011 – certain should make MBM popular with feed producers in Asia.
In the US domestic market, the feeling seems to be that prices are about at the bottom and with the strong export sales some say the heavy supplies could be eaten up but no one is expecting any serious rally in prices until Jan/Feb 2018.
Looks like we could be trading a price range for MBM for the next few weeks.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Very little to say about fishmeal this week as all the major players are at the IFFO meeting and there is a dearth of trade information as a result.
However, there were some rumors from Peru that suggest the IMARPE cruise is not having the best results for the next season – spawning, rumors say is being delayed by cold waters and the anchovy population is very spread out. It is said that with a late spawning there could be a high level of juveniles once fishing starts.
There was also the odd comment that the late spawning could result in a quota of less than 2 million m/t.
The IMARPE cruise should finish next week so we may get some word on the situation.
In the meantime, the prices this week in Peru seem to have moved up by about USD 20 m/t while prices for Chile are steady with last week. Prices in Europe were off little but that is a result of the strengthening USD against the Euro.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,550 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,360 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,370 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,420 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,580 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1170/1180 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1210/1220 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1260/1270 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1360/1370 m/t | 1360/1380 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1400/1410 m/t | 1380/1400 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1440/1450 m/t | 1400/1420 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1490/1500 m/t | 1460/1480 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1550/1600 | 1350/1400 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1650/1700 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1750/1800 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1900/2000 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2017 Wayne S. Bacon
