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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT January 28, 2023
US wheat prices led the market due to continued concern over drought conditions in the main wheat growing areas of the US. Some trade reports suggested that the drought may be coming to an end as good rains are said to be in the future – due to a La Nina event – that will bring rain in February and March.
Soymeal prices just keep going higher as concern over the Argentina soybean crop and an expected drop in soymeal production keep prices very firm. No one seems to be forecasting a drop in soymeal prices for now. However, trading in soymeal futures has dropped with volume levels lower every day – perhaps the bull market is ending or at least slowing.
Trade reports at the end of the week seem to be leaning toward higher prices for corn due to the drought situation in Brazil. Also, the lower crop estimates for the Ukraine will help to keep corn prices steady if not higher.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady |
| $27/28.00 | Steady | |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $39/40.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $40/41.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $41/42.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $42/43.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $44/45.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41/42.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Steady |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Steady |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Steady |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $46/47.00 | Steady |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | Closed | Steady |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | Closed | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $31/32.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $83/84.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80/81.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Down $3.00 |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $37/38.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $30/31.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46/47.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33/34.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $62/63.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Corrected |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $45/46.00 | Corrected |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $62/63.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $65/66.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $64/65.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | N/A |
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| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $75/76.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $72/73.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady |
| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $23 Russia $18 Romania | Steady |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $26 Russia $21 Romania | Steady |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $31/32.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $30/31.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $32/33.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $25/26.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 676 | Down 87 |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 534 | Down 253 |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1054 | Down 6 |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 650 | Down 2 |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 431 | Down 10 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 2214 | Up 36 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR February 2023/April 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 327>>314 June |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 385>>370 June |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 275/280 |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 305/310 |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 300/305 |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 322/325 |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 340>>350 April |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 265/270 |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 298/301 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 345/350 |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 275/280 |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 275/280 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 310>>305 May |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 350>>330 May |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 305>>275 June |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 310>>300 June |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 317/320 |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 270/275 |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 260/265 |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 255/260 |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 290/295 |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 365/370 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 600>>540 June |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 635>>575 June |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 580>>520 June |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 605/610 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 560>>510 June |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 600>>585 June |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 610>>570 June |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 580>>570 June |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 825/830 m/t |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 300/305 m/t |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 340>>325 m/t June |
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Corn gluten meal buyers have been hoping for lower prices but that doesn't seem to be going to happen for now as there is just too much domestic demand in the USA, mainly from pet food, to allow prices to slip.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Up to January 26 the catch is reported as 1.814 million m/t which leaves 468,000 m/t to go to full quota --- but only 5 days. The next 5 days could land just less than 100,000 m/t which would still leave a shortfall on the quota of 368,000 m/t or more – about 83,000 m/t of fishmeal and close to 3,000 m/t of fishoil.
The catch in the south of Peru is at 4,600 m/t against the quota of 337,000 m/t. The south quota is until June 30, 2023.
Trade reports say that super prime and prime prices are up by about USD 50 m/t due to a lack of supply while other grades are steady for now.
Due to the Chinese New Year celebrations, buying interest for fishmeal has been limited but everyone will be back next week and buying interest should pick up --- also prices have a good chance of moving higher as fishing comes to an end.
MSI Ceres estimates that the container freight price from Peru to China is now down to about USD 35 m/t or about USD 1,000 per 40 foot box.
The latest numbers for Peru's fishmeal exports for 2022 show 1.07 million m/t shipped with 836,000 m/t (78.2%) going to China. Ecuador was the second largest buyer at 65,000 m/t followed by Germany at 59,000 m/t, Japan at 39,000 m/t, Taiwan at 20,700 m/t and Vietnam at 17,900.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,200 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,795 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,775 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,805 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,155 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1640/1650 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1690/1700 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1740/1750 m/t | 1740/1750 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1840/1800 m/t | 1790/1800 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1890/1850 m/t | 1840/1850 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | No prices |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
