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Email : wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT March 25, 2023
While soybeans and soymeal did have an up day on Friday it was not enough of an up to overcome all the lower prices earlier in the week. Soybeans finished the week down by about USD 20 m/t with soymeal down by USD 17 to 20 m/t. Some trade experts seem to feel that the weakness in soybean prices will continue while other are saying that this weeks price drop was too extreme. Of course, with jillions of tons of South American soybeans coming to market any up moves in soybean prices may not be possible.
Corn prices finished a little higher on the week as new sales to China helped to keep the market from moving lower. This corn rally may be short term as USA corn exports are much below forecasted levels and seem to be depending mostly on China. However, there were reports that the rains in Brazil have stopped earlier than usual which may have a yield effect on the next crop and could keep corn prices firm.
Wheat, as usual, has reacted to anything that happens in the Black Sea and this week it is the possibility of restricted wheat exports by Russia – as Russia tries to move prices higher. Friday was a very strong day for US wheat prices with most prices up by USD 10 m/t on the day. There were also concern over a lack of rainfall in parts of the USA wheat belt and how this could reduce yields. This week was certainly a bullish week for wheat markets.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $27.00 | Steady |
| $27.00 | Steady | |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $32.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $32.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $33.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $35.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $36.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $45.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $38.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $52.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $52.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $33.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $29.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $29.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | Closed | Steady |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | Closed | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $31.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $83.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $24.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $30.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $71.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $47.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $47.00 | Down $1,00 |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $73.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $70.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $72.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $43.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $71.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $70.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $42.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $43.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $69.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | N/A |
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| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $78.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $77.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $46.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $56.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | Russia $56 Ukraine $62 |
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| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60.00 |
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| Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | Russia $47 Ukraine $54 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $19 Russia $26 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $21 Russia $34 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $61 Russia $65 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $30.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $32 Russia 42 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $31 Russia $41 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $32.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $60.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $20 Russia $33 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | Steady |
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| Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 3 to 5,000 m/t | $63.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Russia to Egypt – coaster 3 to 5,000 m/t | $85.00 | Down $10.00 |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1489 | Down 46 |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1882 | Down 31 |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1572 | Down 151 |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 1332 | Up 14 |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 703 | Up 9 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 1463 | Up 29 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR April 2023/June 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 290>>279 July |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 375>>365 July |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 250/255 |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 275>>265 July |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 270/275 |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 280/283 |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 335/340 |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 250/255 |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 280/283 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 295/300 |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 255/260 |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 265/270 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 290>>280 July |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 310>>300 July |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 285>>260 July |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 290>>265 July |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 300/303 |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 275/280 |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 265/270 |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 255/260 |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 310/315 |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 340>>330 July |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 530>>520 July |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 560>>550 July |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 500>>495 July |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 515/520 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 475<<480 July |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 565>>560 July |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 540<<550 July |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 500<<525 July |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 510/515 |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 795/805 |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 295/300 |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 330>>325 July |
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Lower soymeal prices pressured the market this week but not as much as expected. DDGS prices were down by at least USD 5 m/t, but corn gluten meal export prices remained steady – perhaps we will see more weakness next week.
According to the US Grains Council, DDGS prices FOB NOLA for nearby have dropped by as much as USD 10 m/t but prices further out are steady.
CNF prices in containers are actually up a little as there has been a small bump higher in container freight this week.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
There has still been no further catch reported in the south of Peru but there is really no one out fishing.
The IMARPE research cruise is expected to finish next week, so we are all merrily guessing at what the next fishing quota will be and when it will start. According to trade reports the fishing industry is pushing hard on the government to get the next season started ASAP as they seem to be a little concerned about EL Nino events. The industry feels that it would be best to get fishing quickly before any "expected" El Nino arrives and pushes the biomass out into deeper water.
As reported for the past few weeks, there are no buyers or sellers in the market these days. China has lots of supply and Peruvian sellers have nothing left to sell.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,045 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,725 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,785 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,815 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,025 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1700/1710 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1750/1760 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1800/1810 m/t | 1800/1810 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1850/1860 m/t | 1830/1840 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1900/1910 m/t | 1900/1910 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 5100/5150 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | No prices |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
