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Blake Road and West Bay Street, Nassau, Bahamas.
Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT December 17, 2022
US corn and wheat prices moved a little higher this week while soybeans/soymeal slipped lower.
Many trade reports at the end of the week point to concern over world economics as being one of the major factors in grain/oilseed prices. There are lot of comments about a possible global recession in 2023 and the effect that this could have on consumption and on prices. One would think that recession would lead to lower consumption and lower prices but not all experts agree.
There was really nothing new in the corn market to move prices in any one direction with some trade reports saying that the corn market should be quiet until January 2023 as many are getting close to shutting down for the Christmas and New Year holidays.
Wheat prices were higher this week on the Black Sea situation with Russia's increased activity in the Ukraine adding to wheat supply concerns for 2023. The US situation is good for winter wheat as soil moisture levels have improved and things look good.
Soybean/soymeal prices didn't have much reason to move lower except that recent increases may have just been too large. There is still a lot of concern about drought in South America and questions about China's soybean needs which probably makes the long term trend seem to want to be higher but we still have an expected record soybean crop in Brazil which is keeping a lid on prices.
With only another week or so before the start of the holidays, we should see a slowing down of business with markets probably doing funny things at a lower volume.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
The continued lower freight for containers is said to have caused one company to pay USD 93 million to buy its way out of long term freight commitments that were booked when rates were charging higher.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $29/30.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $29/30.00 |
| |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $48/49.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $49/50.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $50/51.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $51/52.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $53/54.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41/42.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf China: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Steady |
|
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady |
|
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $32/33.00 | Steady |
|
| US PNW China: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Steady |
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| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $46/47.00 | Steady |
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| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $71/73.00 | Steady |
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| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $73/74.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $31/32.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $83/84.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $79/80.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $32/33.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $73/74.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Jordan | $37/38.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $30/31.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46/47.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33/34.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $58/59.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to China: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $53/54.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $57/58.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $60/61.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $53/54.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $53/54.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $58/59.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to China: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $60/61.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | N/A |
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| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $72/73.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $26/27.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $29/30.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $30/31.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $29/30.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $32/33.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $26/27.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1560 | Up 174 |
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| Baltic Capesize Index | 2208 | Up 525 |
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| Baltic Panamax Index | 1652 | Down 7 |
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| Baltic Supramax Index | 1157 | Up 5 |
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| Baltic Handisize Index | 705 | Down 27 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 2127 | Down 401 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR January 2023/March 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 334>>328 April |
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| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 380>>375 April |
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| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 275/280 |
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| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 305/310 |
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| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 320>>310 April |
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| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 325/328 |
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| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 370/385 April |
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| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 270>>255 April |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 293/296 |
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| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 350/355 |
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| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 275/280 |
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| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 275/280 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 305>>295 April |
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| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 325>>320 April |
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| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 285/290 |
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| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 295<<270 April |
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| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 314/317 |
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| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 250>>235 April |
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| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 220/230 |
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| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 255/260 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 280/285 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 360/365 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 555>>545 April |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 590<<580 April |
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| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 560>>510 April |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 585/590 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 560>>510 April |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 600>>590 April |
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| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 605>>560 April |
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| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 590>>560 April |
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| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 825/830 m/t |
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| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 310/320 m/t |
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| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 345>>325 m/t April |
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Corn prices in the USA moved a little higher this week and barge transport rates in the Mississippi River moved even higher. The biggest effect seemed to be on DDGS prices with nearby export price levels up by as much as USD 10 m/t but relaxing a little after February shipment.
US corn gluten meal prices also moved higher this week – perhaps due to expected higher fishmeal prices along with strong pet food demand. There was also quit a bit of buying interest from Egypt as the lower container freight costs have made CNF Egypt prices more attractive. Sellers to Egypt are insisting on 100% prepayment of shipments for Egypt-based buyers due to the continuing serious shortage of foreign exchange to pay for imports.
FOB prices look to be steady for the moment but could move higher in the Mississippi river problems get worse. While every shipment doesn't move on the Mississippi, river problems affect all prices.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing is continuing quite well in Peru with the daily catch level between 45, 000 and 50,000 m/t. Total catch up to the 15th is at 951,000 m/t leaving 1.332 mm/t still to land and 45 days left until the quota expires. Looking at historical catch levels, the daily totals tend to fall off after about the 20th of December – so, it may still not be too easy to land the full quota.
Fishmeal sales to date are now said to have eased over 300,000 m/t and prices FOB Peru are said to be moving higher. Some reports show FOB prices up by as much as USD 50 m/t but this has not been confirmed. Buyers in China are said to be bidding lower for CNF shipments due to the steady drop in container freight prices. Sellers don't seem to be too inclined to accept lower bids as they are unsure about how much more fishmeal will be produced if the landings drop.
Fishmeal prices in China are said to be moving lower and the spread between the grades is getting tighter.
The latest fishmeal numbers from China show 2022 imports down by about 6.2% to 1.7 mm/t with 2023 fishmeal imports to move even lower to 1.6 mm/t while local fishmeal production increases account for most of the import drop – local production up by at least 65,000 m/t.
There are a great many political problems in Peru these days --- problems that could affect the fishing industry in weeks/months to come.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,215 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,745 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,755 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,790 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,135 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1520/1530 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1570/1580 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1620/1630 m/t | 1670/1680 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1670/1680 m/t | 1720/1730 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1770/1780 m/t | 1750/1760 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 4200/4300 | 3700/3800 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 4400/4500 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
