-------------------------
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT October 31, 2020
Today is day 2 of the new November COVID-19 "lockdown" in France. Most everything except for supermarkets, pharmacies are garages closed. Schools remain open since COVID rates among children are very low and people are allowed to travel to work. There are very strict limits on who can be out and about and rules are being strictly enforced. Hopefully, this drastic action will have a positive effect in reducing the current peak in COVID-19 infections.
------------------
This week was a down week for everything, as the business had a reaction to the steady bull market of recent days. Corn prices dropped by about USD 8 m/t with soybeans down by around USD 10 m/t and soymeal down by USD 9 m/t. USA winter wheat was down by as much as USD 12 m/t with spring wheat down by about USD 9 m/t.
The US presidential election next week has added nervousness to both commodity markets ad to the stock exchange --- most everything moved lower, including the value of the US dollar.
It is interesting that some of the trade reports this week suggested that corn prices should be moving higher not going lower. Export sales continue to be very good and should continue strong as US corn is currently competitive in export markets.
Soybeans/soymeal were down this week on mainly technical selling and the feeling that the market was due for a decent pull back in prices after the steady rally higher. Other than a blip in a rally higher there doesn't seem to be any very good reason to expect further moves to lower prices for either soybeans or soymeal.
Wheat from everywhere took a little dive lower this week as the recent rally international prices seemed to be taking a breather from the moves higher. With prices down at the end of the week we may just see a rush in countries tendering for wheat next week, which could easily push prices higher once again.
The drop in prices this week looks to be due to market nervousness and a reaction to the daily moves higher for prices – every market trend needs a good down day before plowing higher again.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Libya: 25/30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $41/42.00 | New | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $27/27.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $30/31.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1283 | Down 132 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 1875 | Down 386 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1289 | Up 15 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 949 | Down 23 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 591 | Down 6 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2020/January 2021
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 268/271 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 264/267 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 249/251 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 251/253 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 252/254 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 244/246 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 249/252 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 249/251 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 228/230 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 229/231 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 219/222 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 215>>211 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 230>>224 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 223/226 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 229/232 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 228/230 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 231/234 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 235/238 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 229/232 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 155/158 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 277/280 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 462/465 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 487/490 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 483/486 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 451/454 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 482/485 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 445/448 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 442/445 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 474/477 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 498/501 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 475/480 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 590>>610 m/t Nov>>Jan | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 215/220 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 270>>260 m/t | X |
|
|
|
|
November and early December export prices for US DDGS continue quite high but as we get into 2021 the export prices start to move lower. Weaker 2021 price for DDGS are said to be due mainly to improved export port logistics. The US Grains Council noted in its weekly report that DDGS prices in "deferred positions" are down by about USD 20 m/t for NOLA loading.
Corn gluten meal prices have not changed at all this week as demand for higher protein feed ingredients and pet food items remain strong. Export CGM buyer are having to pay up to get any supply and it looks like buyers are shying away from paying these prices or are just buying minimal supplies in the hopes of lower prices to come – the trade says that lower prices are probably not coming.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 520/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 510/530 m/t CNF Asia USD 860/880 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 530/540 m/t CNF China USD 440/460 to Indonesia USD 540/560 m/t CNF Asia USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 900/920 m/t CNF Asia |
Animal protein prices moved higher again this week on the recent strength of vegetable proteins – mainly soymeal. While soymeal did move lower this week, animal protein prices were still trying to catch up with the price rally to date.
No one is expecting lower prices in international markets for now as prices from all main exporting countries are holding steady or pushing higher.
In the US domestic market, prices continue higher as local demand is very good, as is export demand, and soymeal prices are helping to keep the market strong.
The Jacobsen Report this week mention how pet food demand for animal proteins is moving higher as the market enters a strong demand period for pet food.
Most trade reports are calling for prices to be steady to higher for coming days.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Nothing new to report yet from the IMARPE research cruise but the trade feels that there will be news next week with fishing to begin before the 15th of November. There are very wide opinions on exactly where the new quota will be set – from a low of 1.7 million m/t to a high of 2.5 mm/t. If you look back at the past biomass and quota numbers, as shown by MSI Ceres this week, it looks like around about 2.0 mm/t is the best average quota level for the last 15 years. Only twice in 15 years was the quota at or above 2.5 mm/t.
Presales against the next Peru fishing quota are now up to about 210,000 m/t, which would be almost 45% of new production if the quota were set at 2.0 million m/t. There is the feeling in the trade that if the new quota is at 2.0 mm/t or more than prices could slip a little lower, below 2.0 mm/t and prices will be steady to higher.
The January to September Peru fishmeal export numbers show a total of 748,000 m/t exported with 90% (672,000 m/t) going to Asia, including 77% to China (575,000 m/t). Peru remains the major shipper of fishmeal to China at 43.6% of fishmeal imports. No other fishmeal exporter has more than 9.0% of China's fishmeal business --- Chile and Vietnam have 9% each with Thailand, Russia and Mauritania each having a 6% share. These four countries represent close to 90% of China's fishmeal imports.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,585 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,440 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,470 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,520 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,610 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
|
| 65/66 protein | 1250/1270 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1330/1350 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1400/1420 m/t | 1430/1450 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1450/1470 m/t | 1480/1500 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1530/1550 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1600/1620 m/t |
|
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2150/2250 | 2200/2300 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2200/2300 |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2300/2400 |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2400/2500 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon
