Saturday, May 27, 2017

Weekly report - May 27, 2017

 
HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   May 27, 2017

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Monday is a holiday in the US, so the end of the week activity may have been a little stronger than normal as no one wants to go into a three-day weekend with any uncovered grain or oilseed positions.

 

Looking at the US futures market for the week, there was almost no change in corn prices while soybeans were down by almost USD 10 m/t with soymeal down by USD 5 m/t. Other than spring wheat, which was up by about USD 4 m/t, wheat prices didn't change much on the week.

 

The latest US crop progress report shows that most everything is back close to the 5-year average planting levels, except sorghum a bit low. We all knew that the US farmer was going to catch up on planting – they almost always do. US farmers seem to be able to plant at about 100 miles per hour – of course they don't but certainly awfully quickly.  

 

The main question about corn this week was how much of the planted corn will have to be replanted due to the rains and flooding that had been seen in some major corn areas. While it is great to get the seeds in the ground, one also should consider if they will actually be able to grow.

 

There has been some speculation that the USDA crop condition report for corn, the first of which is out next week, may show that crop is not in as good condition as all would hope. If not then this could get a little rally going in corn prices.

 

And then there are soybeans, prices pushed lower by more farmer selling in Brazil and the possibility that some of the corn acres that need replanting may be replanted in soybeans. Then there are the stories that China may cancel some of its soybean orders. There are certainly very bearish factors for soybeans. For now, there just doesn't seem to be anything at all supportive for soybean/meal prices.

 

 

Crop progress and condition --- USA and France

 

Due to a holiday in France, their weekly update will not be published until Monday the 29th

 

 

May 22, 2017

%

May 22, 2016

%

Five-year average

%

 

 

Planted USA

 

 

 

 

 

Corn

84.0

84.0

85.0

 

 

Sorghum

37.0

36.0

41.0

 

 

Soybeans

53.0

53.0

52.0

 

 

Spring wheat

90.0

94.0

84.0

 

 

Spring Barley

88.0

93.0

87.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Condition USA

Very poor

%

Poor

%

Fair

%

Good

%

Excellent

%

Winter wheat

4

11

33

44

8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Planted France

May 15, 2017

%

May 15, 2016

%

 

 

 

Corn

98.0

88.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Condition France

Very poor

%

Poor

%

Fair

%

Good

%

Excellent

%

Wheat, soft

0.0

6.0

18.0

62.0

14.0

Barley, winter

1.0

10.0

22.0

56.0

11.0

Wheat, hard

1.0

9.0

23.0

60.0

7.0

Barley, spring

0.0

4.0

18.0

70.0

8.0

Corn

0.0

2.0

12.0

80.0

6.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)

$14.00/15.00

Steady

x

US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$21/22.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT

$22/23.00

Steady

x

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)

$21/22.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000

$23/24.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$23/24.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch)

$24/25.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$34/35.00

Down $1.00

x

US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Down $2.00

x

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$37/38.00

Steady

x

US Gulf China: Panamax

$36/37.00

Steady

x

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$36/37.00

Down $1.00

x

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$19/20.00

Down $1.00

X

US PNW China: Panamax

$18/19.00

Down $1.00

x

US East Coast Egypt: Panamax

$47/48.00

Up $1.00

x

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$51/52.00

Steady

x

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$13/14.00

Down $1.00

x

France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)

$14/15.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$26/27.00

Down $1.00

X

France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$11/12.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000

$25/26.00

Adjusted

x

France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t

$34/35.00

Down $1.00

X

France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t

$47/48.00

Down $2.00

x

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$23/24.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$33/34.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$34/35.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$24/25.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t

$20/21.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$20/21.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t

$40/41.00

Down $2.00

X

Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t

$21/22.00

Down $2.00

X

Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$23/24.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t

$16/17.00

Steady

x

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t

$24/25.00

Down $2.00

x

Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Down $1.00

X

Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Down $1.00

x

Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t

$27/28.00

Down $1.00

X

Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t

$23/24.00

Down $2.00

X

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$36/37.00

Down $1.00

X

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$21/22.00

Down $2.00

X

 

 

 

 

Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$19/19.50

Steady

x

Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$19.50/20.00

Steady

x

Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Steady

x

 

 

 

 

Ukraine to China:  50,000 m/t

$28/29.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)

$14/15.00

Adjusted

X

Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)

$28/29.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)

$16/17.00

Adjusted

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich)

$17/18.00

Steady

x

Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$28/29.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$32/33.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$13/14.00

Down $1.00

X

Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)

$12/13.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$18/19.00

Adjusted

X

Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k

$19/20.00

Adjusted

X

Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t

$36/37.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$12/13.00

Down $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

912

Down 44

x

Baltic Capesize Index

1591

Down 77

X

Baltic Panamax Index

845

Down 25

X

Baltic Supramax Index

721

Down 38

x

Baltic Handisize Index

469

Down 33

X

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2017/August 2017

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA

 USD 183/188

x

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein

 USD 212/217

x

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 176/180

x

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 179/183

x

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

 USD 182/187

x

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

 USD 187/190

x

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver

 USD 179/184 new crop

x

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 172/176

x

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 169/172

x

   Barley, feed, Argentina

 USD 166/170 June/July

x

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 152/156

x

   Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest

 USD 195/200

x

 

 

 

   Corn, FOB NOLA USA

 USD 161/164

x

   Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 172/174 June/July

x

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

 USD 153/160 Aug/Sep

x

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 159/163 Aug/Sep

x

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 164/168

x

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 190/195

x

   Corn, FOB Romania

 USD 176/179

x

   Corn, FOB Russia

 USD 169/173

x

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

 USD 178/182

x

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD 148/153

x

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 332/337

x

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 357/362

X

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

 USD 344/348

x

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 311/316

x

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

 USD 337/342

x

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 315/320

x

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB India

 USD 345/350

x

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 362/367

x

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 355/361

x

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 360/366

x

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 USD 377/382

x

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD  580/590 m/t

x

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD  115/119 m/t

x

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD  152/156 m/t

x

 

 

 

 

Export price indications for DDGS moved higher this week, as there will be a drop in expected supplies due to continuing maintenance at some major ethanol facilities. DDGS demand is also seen to be higher for the July/August period with loading positions for June said to be almost impossible to find.

 

The USDA doesn't show any domestic price increase for DDGS but tighter export supplies are pushing prices higher. Both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed prices have moved lower in the US domestic market but this has not been seen so far in export market prices. Tight export logistics are keeping the export prices a little firmer than domestic levels.

  

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50% protein

   Argentina poultry meal, 57/60% protein

   Argentina feathermeal, 78/80% protein

 USD 435/450 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia

   Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein

 USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia

   Australian MBM 45% protein

   Australian MBM 50% protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

 USD 480/490 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 550/560 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 800/810 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein

   USA Feathermeal, 80% protein

   USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

 USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 550/560 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 660/670 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 900/920 m/t CNF Asia

 

The trade seems to feel that animal protein prices into the major markets in Asia have some room to move lower. The opinion is that pre-Ramadan demand had kept prices artificially high and now that that demand is over prices could slip lower. One trade report has said that meat and bone meal prices could drop by about USD 20 m/t.

 

The Jacobsen Report was saying this week that poultry meal prices remain steady even with the very good fishing in Peru and the drop of fishmeal prices. I expect that once the new fishmeal starts to ship there will be some downward pressure on export poultry meal prices and perhaps on meat and bone meal.

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Fishing in Peru continues at quite a good level with the catch for the last week averaging in the high 40,000 m/t per day level, with close to 500 vessels out fishing every day. The total to date, as of the 25th, was up to 1.3 million m/t, leaving 1.5 mm/t to go to quota. However, the weather has been quite up and down which has resulted in limited fishing in some areas.

 

There were stories in the trade this week that fishmeal prices may be moving up a little, perhaps USD 30 to 40 m/t as sellers don't seem to want to accept buyers' bids at the prices shown below.

 

The trade also reports that prices for August shipment are being quoted at higher levels.

 

The MSI Ceres report this week was saying that, although fishing has been good so far, one can never count on the weather and, as has been seen in the past, a change in the weather can quickly shut down much of the fishing.

 

The latest numbers on China's fishmeal imports show that Peru is still the largest supplier with about 65% of the business – 319,000 m/t of fishmeal in 2017 to end April. The balance of China's fishmeal imports are spread around 18 other origins with the biggest being: Ecuador, Vietnam, Russia, Thailand and the USA. From the Peru point of view, China this year has bought 79% of all Peru export fishmeal, up from 73% in 2016.

 

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Herring fishmeal

72% protein

1,350

Danish fishmeal

64% protein

1,340

Peru fishmeal

64% protein

1,300

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,350

Iceland fishmeal

70% protein

1,200

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein 

1000/1020 m/t

 

   65/66 protein

1070/1090 m/t

 

   67% protein standard steam

1100/1120 m/t

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1230/1250 m/t

1290/1310

   67% protein 120 TVN

1280/1300 m/t

1310/1330

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1330/1350 m/t

1330/1350

   68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN

1380/1400 m/t

1350/1360

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

1250/1300

1150/1200

   Fish oil, crude drums

1350/1400

 

   Fish oil, flexi tank

1450/1500

 

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

1600/1700

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2017 Wayne S. Bacon