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WEEKLY GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT June 27, 2020
It was another down week for grain prices in the US --- on the futures side of things, corn prices dropped by as much as USD 8 m/t, soybeans were down by USD 6 m/t or so with soymeal down by USD 4 m/t. US winter wheat was down by about USD 4 m/t while spring wheat dropped by almost USD 10 m/t.
With grains and oilseeds there just doesn't seem to be any bearish news at present that can push prices higher. The weather in the US looks good for now for just about everything and all the reports coming out from forecasting organizations are adding more bearish pressure as the supply of grains and oilseeds just looks to be growing and growing and growing. I suppose that I should say "increasing" rather than "growing" as we all know that crops grow.
Winter wheat yields in the US are said to be higher than has been expected but the protein level on much of the winter harvest to date is lower than normal – one trade report said as low as 7% protein. Spring wheat just slipped lower on expected increased world wheat supplies an falling international prices.
With corn, there is a feeling that the good weather could mean a record US corn crop in 2020 --- some experts feel that corn prices can move lower while others think that we are at about the bottom in prices for the year. Normally we would see prices move lower as we get closer to September and if the weather stays very good we could easily see new low prices for US corn.
Soybeans, much like corn, is moving lower on good US weather and the expectation of a possible record crop. While China is in and out of the soybean market, these days it seem to be just the crop situation that is moving prices.
So, what do we think, lower prices for all with good weather and amazing yields – perhaps.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $25/26.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $59/60.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $39/40.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $58/59.00 |
| X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $42/43.00 |
| X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 |
| X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $21/22.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 (10,000 dis) | $16/17.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $22/23.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $34/35.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $30/31.00 | Up $5.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $29/39.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $15/16.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $11/12.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $29/30.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $50/51.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $41/42.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $50/51.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $11/12.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $34/35.00 |
| X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $51/52.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $17/18.00 |
| X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $24/24.50 |
| x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, 50,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to India, 50,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $22/23.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $13/14.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $13/14.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $14/15.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $16/17.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $22/23.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $27/28.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $15/16.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $15/16.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $26/27.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $14/15.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $49/50.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1749 | Up 194 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 4219 | Up 400 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1256 | Up 78 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 678 | Up 21 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 385 | Up 22 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2020/August 2020
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 206/210 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 209/212 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 196/199 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 202/205 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 202/205 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 201/203 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 229/231 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 188/191 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 184/186 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 178/181 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 176/179 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 160/162 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 166/168 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 147/150 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 146/149 August | x |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 191/193 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 183/186 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 182/185 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 181/184 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 123/125 new crop | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 208/211 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 336/339 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 361/364 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 348/351 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 318/321 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 345/348 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 318/321 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 351/354 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 346/349 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 364/366 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 392/395 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 540/580 m/t July/Sept | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 196/199 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 185/190 m/t | X |
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DDGS prices continued to move lower this week as supply has improved due to the increase in ethanol production. According to the trade this is also the low consumption period for DDGS so prices may move lower still. CNF export prices were steady, since any drop in FOB price was offset by the increase in ocean freight costs.
Corn gluten meal prices remain very strong in the US and for export and exports don't seem to be expecting a drop in prices anytime soon.
Corn gluten feed prices remain steady on the week.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 460/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 370/390 to Indonesia USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 850/870 m/t CNF Asia |
Export meat and bone meal prices were lower in Asia again this week with US origin MBM seeming to be the cause for lower prices – according to the Jacobsen Report. Both Argentina and New Zealand are expected to reduce their export prices to compete with USA MBM. Interestingly, MBM supply is said to be tight in Australia but exporters still have to lower their prices in the competition with US product.
USA domestic MBM prices continue lower as supply is running well ahead of demand. There are no experts forecasting higher prices in the near term.
For now, feathermeal and poultry meal prices remain steady with more weakness expected for pure beef MBM and pork meal.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing up to the 25th of June remained quite good, with the total catch no up to 1.7 million m/t, about 422,000 m/t of fishmeal and 58,400 m/t of fishoil. The balance to complete the quota is now just over 710,000 m/t of catch.
With the catch being so good so far, many in the trade are saying that we will probably see about 1.9 mm/t of catch before the quota period runs out – much better than was initially expected.
According to trade reports that percentage of high quality fishmeal is lower this season than in recent seasons. One report says that about 80% of fishmeal is usually high quality but this season the high quality level is more like 65 to 70% --- this could put come upward price pressure on Super Prime and Prime fishmeal.
Recent buying by China is said to be at the lower quality level of the market .
Trade comments this week say that all Peru fishmeal prices look to have room to drop about another USD 50 m/t in coming weeks.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,810 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,470 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,580 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,660 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,870 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1400/1420 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1450/1470 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | 1500/1520 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1550/1570 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1600/1620 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t | 1650/1670 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2300/2350 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 2350/2400 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2450/2500 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2500/2600 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon
